Down Goes Frazier. Again. Probably for Good.

We’ve always been mystified by the interest in Aurora city council member Ryan Frazier, who seems to get a lot more credit than he deserves. But after losing his bid for Aurora Mayor last night to Steve Hogan in a race that wasn’t really close (Hogan won by 10 points), Frazier should be pretty well done in Colorado.

Frazier was touted as a rising star among Colorado Republicans when he tried running for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in 2009. He eventually dropped that race to take on incumbent Democrat Ed Perlmutter in CD-7…and promptly got the crap kicked out of him. Perlmutter beat Frazier by 11 points, yet for some reason Frazier was widely praised by local and national media for having been a strong candidate.

Here’s what we wrote about Frazier following the 2010 mid-term elections, when we named him one of the “Losers” of the cycle:

Sometimes a candidate will lose a big race but do well enough that he or she is considered a rising star. Frazier? Not so much. He got bullied out of the Republican Senate primary to run in CD-7, where he proceeded to get the absolute crap kicked out of him by Rep. Ed Perlmutter. Frazier is a good fundraiser and is decent at delivering a prepared speech, but his campaign was amateurish at best and he otherwise proved to be immature, vacuous and just plain silly in unscripted moments. In one debate, he repeatedly demanded that Perlmutter tell him the page number of something in the health care bill; when your big attack is that your opponent can’t recall page numbers, you’re running a student council campaign.

It’s not losing the race that hurts Frazier, but the fact that he couldn’t even be competitive in a Republican year. Frazier lost by 11 points to Perlmutter and received about 13,000 fewer votes than 2008 GOP candidate John Lerew, a guy whose own yard signs said “John Who?”

Ryan Frazier has now lost high-profile races in consecutive years by double digits, and there’s now no denying the fact that he’s just not a very good politician. Sure, he’s a good speaker (even if he sounds like he’s doing an impression of Barack Obama) and a decent fundraiser, but his campaigns have been downright ridiculous at times. Whether traveling to the Mexico border to stare at the fence, or claiming in a recent robo-call that the “Occupy Wall Street” crowd was out to get him, Frazier was less statesman than used-car salesman. And voters have noticed; it’s worth repeating that Frazier hasn’t just lost — he’s lost in a landslide in consecutive elections.

If the shine wasn’t completely off of Frazier after 2010, surely it is today. Donors aren’t going to back him a third time, not after that performance record, so we’ve probably seen the last of Frazier as a candidate for public office.  

Perlmutter Announces $277k Raised as Redistricting Looms

Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter easily dispatched Republican challenger Ryan Frazier in 2010 despite Frazier (and the RNCC) spending a good deal of money on what turned out to be a rather weak campaign. But Perlmutter isn’t sitting back and hoping that he scared off a potential 2012 challenger — not with redistricting looming and potential changes to CD-7 making his re-election tougher.

Today, Perlmutter’s campaign announced that he had raised $277,617 in Q1, the highest total amount reported by Perlmutter for this period since 2006. Full press release after the jump…

Congressman Ed Perlmutter’s campaign filed its first financial report of 2011 with the Federal Election Commission showing $277,617 in fundraising since January 1. It is the highest total reported by Perlmutter’s campaign for this period since he was elected to Congress in 2006. The campaign ended the reporting period with $247,177 on hand.

Perlmutter stated, “I am humbled by the support my campaign continues to receive. We received contributions from all across the 7th Congressional District and in amounts from $5 on up. It’s an honor to represent the hard-working people of the 7th district and it’s an honor to have their support. I look forward to continuing to talk to my neighbors in grocery stores and elsewhere about how I can best represent them.”

“To have such a strong showing in the first quarter of a new election cycle means a lot,” said Perlmutter campaign spokeswoman Julie DeWoody. “Ed has hit the ground running in his third term and he never takes a single vote for granted. The widespread support of his campaign reflects that.”

Debbie Stafford Will Run for Aurora Mayor

First reported by The Colorado Statesman:

A Republican-turned-Democrat is preparing to announce her candidacy against a Democrat-turned-Republican for mayor of Aurora, The Colorado Statesman has learned.

Former state Rep. Debbie Stafford – who finished her legislative career as a Democrat after being elected four times as a Republican from House District 40 – is planning a run against former City Councilman and former state Rep. Steve Hogan, one of two announced candidates in the nonpartisan November election for the open seat…

…Stafford’s entry into the race will mean Democrats have candidates up and down the ticket in the November Aurora election. While the election is nonpartisan – party affiliation isn’t listed on the ballot, and candidates win slots via petition, not by party nomination – some of Stafford’s backers said the candidacy of conservative Republican and Tea Party favorite Jude Sandvall could make it harder for Hogan to count on a win in a city that tends to elect Republicans.

Aurora is one of Colorado’s five largest cities, so there is a lot of political upside to being elected Mayor. Outgoing Mayor Ed Tauer has long been mentioned as a potential candidate for higher office numerous times. Aurora City Council member and former CD-7 Republican candidate Ryan Frazier has been rumored to be looking at running for Mayor, though the likely strong candidacy of Steve Hogan may keep Frazier at bay.  

Because You CAN Win for Losing

On Wednesday, our friends over at “The Fix” listed their opinion on the “Ten Best Canididates of 2010.” Not all of the Top Ten were winning candidates, such as Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello:

Perriello drew loads of national attention during his first two years in office as an unapologetic supporter of President Obama’s agenda despite the Republican-leaning nature of the district — Virginia’s 5th — that he represented. That approach led to an assumption that he would be crushed by state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) on Nov. 2. But, through a combination of massive fundraising and sheer will — not to mention a  last minute campaign visit from President Obama — Perriello went into election day with a real chance. He ultimately lost the race but his four-point margin was smaller than almost anyone expected and set him up as a potential statewide candidate in future elections. [Pols emphasis]

This got us thinking about something we briefly touched on in our “Winners and Losers” of the 2010 Elections: Which Colorado candidates who lost in 2010 performed well enough that they could still be called “Winners” overall? [More after the jump…]

Under our “Losers” category a few weeks ago, we wrote this about Republican Ryan Frazier, who was pummeled in his attempt to defeat incumbent Rep. Ed Perlmutter in CD-7:

Sometimes a candidate will lose a big race but do well enough that he or she is considered a rising star. Frazier? Not so much. He got bullied out of the Republican Senate primary to run in CD-7, where he proceeded to get the absolute crap kicked out of him by Rep. Ed Perlmutter. Frazier is a good fundraiser and is decent at delivering a prepared speech, but his campaign was amateurish at best and he otherwise proved to be immature, vacuous and just plain silly in unscripted moments. In one debate, he repeatedly demanded that Perlmutter tell him the page number of something in the health care bill; when your big attack is that your opponent can’t recall page numbers, you’re running a student council campaign.

It’s not losing the race that hurts Frazier, but the fact that he couldn’t even be competitive in a Republican year. Frazier lost by 11 points to Perlmutter and received about 13,000 fewer votes than 2008 GOP candidate John Lerew, a guy whose own yard signs said “John Who?”

We want to hear from all of you Polsters out there on the Internet tubes, and next week we’ll run a poll to see who was the “best of the worst,” so to speak. Who was the “anti-Frazier” of 2010? We’re looking for nominations of candidates who lost in 2010 but still set themselves up well for a potential future run.

For an example, here’s what we wrote about Democrat Will Shafroth after he came in third in a bruising three-way primary for CD-2 in 2008:

Shafroth was never really in contention in CD-2, but no loser came out of Tuesday’s primaries looking better than the erstwhile unknown Shafroth. You could argue (as we would) that going on television in February or March would have been a worthwhile gamble that might have put Shafroth in position for the upset, but that doesn’t diminish what he did accomplish. Shafroth ran a clean campaign and ended up with the endorsement of both the Rocky Mountain News and The Denver Post. He raised enough money to show that he could be a serious candidate, and the money also allowed him to say hello to a lot of regular voters. He may have come in third in a three-way race, but Shafroth will now be near the front of the Democratic bench when future races are considered.

Now, give us your suggestions. Remember, only candidates (or campaign staffers and consultants) who lost their election in 2010 can be considered.

Colorado Election Results Open Thread

UPDATE (11:25): The big Denver paper and many of the other big TV stations have some major problems with their reporting. The Denver Post, for example, had Buck ahead of Bennet 48-46, on the strength of a 52-45 advantage in Boulder. A quick check of the Boulder Clerk and Recorder’s website has Bennet leading Buck 67-29. There are a lot of somebodies who should have caught this immediately — there’s no way Boulder County would go solid red for any Republican.

We recommend sticking with the results from Fox 31, which not only has a page that seems to actually load correctly, but isn’t making any obvious errors that we can see.

—–

UPDATE (11:16): It looks like we may be headed for at least one state legislative recount. In HD-29, Democratic Rep. Debbie Benefield trails Republican Robert Ramirez by 148 votes (50.34% to 49.66%).

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UPDATE (11:12): That didn’t last long. With 56% of ballots counted, Bennet and Buck are now tied at 47-47.

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UPDATE (11:00): Buck has pulled ahead of Bennet for the first time tonight, leading 49-46 with 49% of precincts reporting.

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UPDATE (9:50): It’s looking like the race that will have the biggest impact from an ACP candidate will not be the one anybody expected. The Secretary of State race is neck-and-neck, but the ACP candidate is already pulling 6% of the vote. Buescher may well win this seat by virtue of the American Constitution Party.

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UPDATE (9:44): The percentage of precincts reporting continues to rise, and Michael Bennet continues to hold a 50-45 lead over Ken Buck. This is not good news for Buck, because early returns should have favored him (Republicans voted in higher numbers than Democrats in early and absentee voting). Given Buck’s numerous gaffes in the last two weeks of the campaign, it’s not likely that late voters are going to choose him over Bennet, so it’s hard to see how Buck is going to make up 5 points with 27% of the vote already tallied.

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UPDATE (9:08): It’s always fun to see those really early returns that show absurd numbers. In HD-22, Democrat Christine Radeff is pummeling Republican incumbent Ken Summers 7,875 to 12. Yes, 12. For a few more minutes, anyway.

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UPDATE (9:05): Republican Cory Gardner is being declared the winner in CD-4.

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UPDATE (9:03): The Secretary of State race is coming down to the wire, and may be decided by the number of votes pulled in by the American Constitution Party candidate. Meanwhile, the race for Attorney General seems to be widening in favor of incumbent John Suthers.

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UPDATE (9:00): Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter has been declared the winner in CD-7.

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UPDATE (8:38): The old adage that Jefferson County decides statewide elections is largely holding form. Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper, unofficially, are doing better in Jefferson County, as is John Suthers. Cary Kennedy and Walker Stapleton are neck-and-neck in Jeffco, while Scott Gessler leads Bernie Buescher in the large west Denver suburb.

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UPDATE (8:35): Ladies and gentlemen, your next Governor…John Hickenlooper! The race has been called for Hick. Now the excitement turns to whether or not Dan Maes can cross the 10% threshold. From a Hickenlooper press release:

Colorado voters on Tuesday elected John Hickenlooper, a brewpub pioneer turned Mayor of Denver, as the 42nd Governor of Colorado.

“I am humbled and honored by the decision Colorado’s voters have made, and I accept the challenge you have entrusted to me to lead our state as Governor,” Hickenlooper said. “This is not the end of our journey. This is the beginning. And it starts with bringing people together.”

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UPDATE (8:20): Here’s a couple of developing stories to watch. All of this can change, of course, but as of right now…

  • Bennet maintaining early lead on Buck

  • Hickenlooper holding early lead for Governor

  • Tipton well ahead of Salazar in CD-3

  • Kennedy surprisingly strong in Treasurer race

  • Buescher may be saved by ACP candidate for SOS

  • Third party turnout not yet playing role in CD-4

  • Attorney General race staying close

  • Every major ballot measure getting crushed

  • Both Rep. Diana DeGette (CD1) and Jared Polis (CD2) have been declared winners already
  • —–

    We’ll update results as we can. In the meantime, please keep them updated, with links, in the comments below.

    *NOTE: Candidates in bold and italics have been declared the winner by at least one local news outlet.

    U.S. SENATE

    Michael Bennet (D): 47%

    Ken Buck (R): 47%

    56% reporting

    GOVERNOR

    John Hickenlooper (D): 51%

    Tom Tancredo (ACP): 37%

    Dan Maes (R): 11%

    48% reporting

    STATE TREASURER

    Cary Kennedy (D): 51%

    Walker Stapleton (R): 49%

    44% reporting

    ATTORNEY GENERAL

    John Suthers (R): 57%

    Stan Garnett (D): 43%

    44% reporting

    SECRETARY OF STATE

    Bernie Buescher (D): 44%

    Scott Gessler (R): 50%

    Amanda Campbell (ACP): 6%

    44% reporting

    CD-3

    John Salazar (D): 45%

    Scott Tipton (R): 50%

    63% reporting

    CD-4

    Betsy Markey (D): 41%

    Cory Gardner (R): 53%

    Doug Aden (ACP): 5%

    Ken “Wasko” (I): 1%

    69% reporting

    CD-7

    Ed Perlmutter (D): 53%

    Ryan Frazier (R): 42%

    16% reporting

    9News Pulls Frazier Attack Ad Off the Air

    An attack ad by Republican Ryan Frazier that goes after Rep. Ed Perlmutter for “allowing convicted rapists to receive Viagra” — a claim that has repeatedly been found to be untrue — has been pulled by 9News and will no longer run on the station.

    According to a press release from Perlmutter’s campaign:

    In a rare move, KUSA – Ch. 9 decided to pull the false and misleading ad against Ed Perlmutter which asserted that because he voted for the new health insurance reform law, he supported the ability for convicted rapists to access Viagra.  Adam Schrager from KUSA did the fact check on this ad, declaring it completely FALSE and stated “Perlmutter never voted for it.”  Furthermore, the new health insurance reform law does not contain any provisions in it concerning this assertion.

    CLICK HERE TO SEE THE ENTIRE FACT CHECK

    This is the second attack ad run against Perlmutter that Schrager and Ch. 9 declared false.  The ads, were funded by the shadowy, Republican-operative run American Action Network, which sunk more than $1 million into the false advertising.

    “KUSA did the right thing,” said Perlmutter spokeswoman Leslie Oliver.  “These kinds of false and distorted ads are examples of what happens when these outside shadow groups aren’t required to disclose their donors.  This is an abuse of our political system and a disservice to voters who should be able to make a decision about the future of our country based on the truth – not lies.”

    According to the Denver Post, one of Frazier’s donors,  Rich Beeson, who is a Republican political operative in Colorado, is connected to the consultants for the AAN, and was involved in the decision to run this ad attacking Perlmutter.

    KMGH and the Denver Post have both declared the ad false as well.

    As we wrote when Cory Gardner’s false ads were pulled in CD-4 for accusing Rep. Betsy Markey of taking votes that actually belonged to Rep. ED Markey, this kind of press is really damaging to the candidates behind the ads. When a station pulls an ad for being false, it leaves voters to question how much of your other assertions are really true.  

    Perlmutter Wants False Ads Pulled

    The campaign of Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter is asking local television stations to stop running an ad from the American Action Network that Perlmutter’s camp says has been proven false. From a press release:

    Today, the Perlmutter campaign sent a letter asking TV stations in Denver to remove an advertisement attacking Ed Perlmutter  based on the fact that it is “grossly inaccurate…and includes claims that independent news organizations have already declared false.”  Attached is the letter sent to station managers today, as well as a fact check on the entire ad.

    In addition to numerous false allegations, the commercial alleges the health insurance reform bill “spent our money on health insurance for illegal immigrants.”  This is beyond political gamesmanship, this is a blatant lie, and the worst kind of scare-tactics that TV stations shouldn’t be a party to.  The health insurance reform bill signed into  law by the President states that undocumented immigrants are specifically “excluded from receiving any benefits under health care reform.” Perlmutter voted to ensure this provision was inserted in the law.  See the attached letter for independently-verified citations.

    The million dollar commercial is paid for by the American Action Network (AAN) and is funded by the very big Wall Street financial firms Ed voted to crack down on.

    There is precedent, both in Colorado and in other states, for television stations to remove ads that are intentionally misleading or inaccurate. Click here to read the full letter from law firm Rothgerber, Johnson & Lyons.

    Fun With Press Releases: Buck Bailey Looks Forward to Thursday

    We do our best to share with you some of the more entertaining press releases that we receive here at Colorado Pols, and we got a good one today.

    The release below is from Buck Bailey, the Libertarian candidate in CD-7. There was no headline on the press release, but then, there really isn’t much of a point to the whole thing anyway. Enjoy:

    (Aurora) – Buck Bailey, Libertarian candidate for Congress in CD7 is looking forward to two opportunities on Thursday to highlight the fundamentally different approach to service in the US Congress he offers voters in this election.

    First, he will meet with his fellow candidates as they tape a debate on CPT 12’s Colorado Decides that will air Friday night. Then later, in the evening, he will meet Representative Perlmutter in a debate sponsored by the Jefferson County League of Women Voters.

    Buck has been highly encouraged and energized by the acceptance of his message and his inclusion in numerous forums during this election season.

    More information for Bailey can be obtained at his web site: Votebuckbailey.com

    Buck looks forward to Thursday! But does Buck look forward to Friday? Hmmm…

    Frazier, Perlmutter Closer Race Than Thought…Not Yet

    According to a recent poll by Republican firm Magellan Strategies, Republican challenger Ryan Frazier leads Democrat incumbent Rep. Ed Perlmutter 40-39, with 11% undecided (MOE +/- 3.4%).

    While the Frazier campaign certainly wants to trumpet this poll as a sign that he can defeat Perlmutter, we don’t see it yet. This is the first public poll on this matchup, and Frazier doesn’t actually do better than generic matchup polls between Republican and Democratic candidates. Since neither campaign has started heavy TV advertising, this poll is essentially a “generic R vs. D” poll.

    The real problem for Frazier is that there’s no reason to think he can expand on this. As of the last FEC reporting period, Perlmutter had a million dollars more cash on hand than Frazier; while that deficit could be made up somewhat by the NRCC, since CD-7 has never made it to the top of the pickup list, there’s no reason to think the NRCC would spend any real money here when they have better odds in CD-4 with Cory Gardner.

    According to the Cook Political Report, CD-7 is a “Likely Democrat” district, and President Obama won the district by 18 points in 2008. Frazier is going to need a lot more than this poll to convince national Republicans to toss real money into CD-7; barring that decision, he’s got nowhere to go but down. There are three potentially vulnerable Democrats in Colorado (Perlmutter, Rep. John Salazar and Rep. Betsy Markey), and it’s extremely unlikely that all three will lose their bid for re-election. Perlmutter has to be considered the safest of the three, if nothing else because he is in a district with a Democratic voter registration advantage.

    Who’s Backing Maes?

    We’ve gotten a couple of emails on this subject, so we thought we’d put a list together and see if the Pols community could help us fill it out. Which top-ticket Republican candidates (all statewide and congressional seats) have endorsed GOP Gubernatorial candidate Dan Maes, and who has yet to offer their public support?

    REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ENDORSING MAES

  • U.S. Senate candidate Ken Buck

  • Rep. Doug Lamborn (CD-5)

  • Rep. Mike Coffman (CD-6)
  • UNKNOWN POSITION OR NO ENDORSEMENT YET

  • Treasurer candidate Walker Stapleton

  • Attorney General John Suthers

  • Secretary of State candidate Scott Gessler

  • CD-4 candidate Cory Gardner

  • CD-7 candidate Ryan Frazier
  • Help us out, Polsters! Maes’ website doesn’t seem to have an updated list of endorsements, so if you’ve seen one of the candidates in the second list make an endorsement, let us know.

    Nice Job If You Can Get It

    Yesterday the campaign of Sen. Michael Bennet issued a press release detailing the fact that Republican Senate hopeful Ken Buck had missed at least 133 days of work (or about one-third of the time he should have been working) as Weld County District Attorney in order to campaign for the Senate.

    Today, the Colorado Democratic Party issued a release calling on Republican CD-7 Ryan Frazier to pay back a chunk of his salary as an Aurora City Council Member since he has missed roughly 30% of his city council obligations in the last two years while campaigning, first for U.S. Senate, and now in CD-7.

    Frazier’s missed city council duties have previously been reported by the major Denver newspaper, and Buck’s absences were recently reported by the newspaper in Greeley. We can’t recall any prior candidate for a major office missing as much time in their prior elected positions Buck and Frazier. It’s a staggering amount of absences, really, and doesn’t do much to help them make the case that they’re the candidates to fix an inefficient Congress; it’s hard to be particularly efficient when you don’t even show up for work.

    This argument is particularly tough for Buck to repeat, when his opponent (Bennet) has a 100% voting record in the Senate…and his office is all the way across the country. In the month of July alone, Buck missed 25 days of work. 25!

    But say this for Buck and Frazier: At least they’ve made their current jobs more attractive for future candidates. Run for my job, and you’ll only have to show up one out of every three days!

    Full press releases after the jump.

    Colorado Democratic Party Release:

    DENVER- Ryan Frazier has missed multiple votes on crime and the city budget while he has been out campaigning for his next potential job in Congressional District 7. According to several reports, Frazier has missed approximately 30% of his city council obligations in the last two years.

    In response Colorado Democratic Party Chair Pat Waak released the following statement:

    “It’s appalling that Ryan Frazier thinks it’s no big deal to miss more than a quarter of work for his part-time job and think that he is still representing his district well. Missing the final vote of the city budget in such tough economic times says a lot about his priorities which he claims are the economy and balancing the budget.  Unemployed taxpayers are paying his salary- we think it’s only right for him to give back 30% of his city council pay for the votes he has missed.

    “Using the excuse that he has to work to provide for his family is misleading. We know he hasn’t had a job outside of Council since he decided to run for the Senate and then Congress. Although it’s expected for sitting officials campaigning to miss some work, to miss so much over almost two years of campaigning and still think its ok is a big deal. Bob Beauprez and Paul Tauer had it right, Frazier “ought to be fired, not promoted.”

    Background:

    Aurora City Council Final Vote on Operating and Capital Improvement Budget for 2010, October 26, 2009

    Aurora City Council Final Vote on Establishing a Tax Levy for 2010, October 26, 2010

    Aurora City Council Final Vote on the Levy of Property Taxes, June 30, 2008

    Aurora City Council Vote Discouraging Drug Activity, April 23, 2007

    Press Release from Michael Bennet Campaign

    KEN BUCK’S DAY (YEAR) OFF

    Buck Owes Taxpayers $60,038 for Missing Nearly One-Third of Word Days to Campaign

    DENVER, CO — Ken Buck is pretending to be fiscally responsible but as always he isn’t telling the whole truth.  Over the past 18 months, Buck has racked up a tab at the taxpayers expense of $60,038 for missing at least 113 days of work to campaign.  Will he pay back the taxpayers for failing to do his job?

    “Ken Buck skips out on work and then tries to cover his tracks, but as usual he isn’t being honest with Coloradans,” said Trevor Kincaid, Bennet for Colorado spokesman. “Ken Buck has been passing the bill for his campaign onto taxpayers while pretending to be concerned about our tax dollars.  Buck’s political games and problems finding the truth continue to pile up and paint a very disturbing picture of a man who will say one thing and do another.”

    In an interview with the Greeley Tribune, Buck said he misses from 15 to 45 hours of work every week to campaign.  Buck told the Tribune, “It’s a moral issue. If you’re going to take a day’s salary, you should do a day’s work.”  

    As always, Buck’s record paints a very different picture than what he would have voters believe.  Buck has missed at least 32.8 percent of work on weekdays and has spent at minimum 31.5 percent of his time on the campaign trail while collecting a full time salary and benefits.  A few examples of the amount of work Buck has missed over the past few months to campaign:

    March 2010 (22 days campaigning)

    April 2010 (18 days campaigning)

    June 2010 (19 days campaigning)

    July 2010 (25 days campaigning)

    During the primary, Jane Norton raised issue with the amount of time Buck was away from his duties as DA.  The concerns were echoed in a Greeley Tribune editorial, which questioned whether Buck’s actions were “morally or ethically right.”

    FOP Backs Perlmutter, Unless You Visit Frazier’s Website

    UPDATE (2:12 p.m.): That didn’t take long. Frazier’s campaign website has already been fixed so that the press release with the FOP endorsement is now gone.

    —–

    Yesterday Democrat Ed Perlmutter’s campaign sent out a press release (full release after the jump) noting that he had received the unanimous endorsement of the Colorado Fraternal Order of Police (FOP). What makes this newsworthy, you say? Well, the fact that Republican CD-7 challenger Ryan Frazier also claims to have been endorsed by the FOP.

    According to a press release on Frazier’s website:

    The Board of Directors for the Fraternal Order of Police, Lodge 49 of the Aurora Police Department today announced their unanimous decision to endorse Ryan Frazier’s candidacy for the 7th Congressional District of Colorado. Frazier earned the endorsement for his leadership role as an Aurora City Councilman and his dedication to public safety.

    So how did the Colorado FOP “unanimously” endorse Perlmutter while the Aurora FOP “unanimously” endorse Frazier? Apparently the Aurora FOP isn’t actually permitted to offer an endorsement of its own, and the only FOP endorsement you can get in Colorado comes from the state organization. The Colorado FOP has apparently asked Frazier to remove the endorsement from his website, which obviously hasn’t happened yet.

    PERLMUTTER RECEIVES UNANIMOUS ENDORSEMENT OF COLORADO FRATERNAL ORDER OF POLICE

    “Representative Ed Perlmutter is a leader of integrity, character, and courage, whose record of supporting Colorado’s law enforcement community is unmatched,”

    -Frank Gale, President Colorado Fraternal Order of Police

    Perlmutter Opponent, Ryan Frazier, Flip-Flops on Support for Cops

    Golden, CO – Today, Ed Perlmutter, Congressman from the 7th Congressional District, announced  he received the unanimous endorsement of the Colorado Fraternal Order of Police (FOP)  .  The Colorado FOP is the largest representative organization of police in Colorado.

    Perlmutter received the endorsement on Saturday during the regular monthly meeting of the Colorado FOP Colorado based on his long history of support for our local law enforcement officers. (See attached letter of endorsement).

    “Ed’s long record of support for police officers and law enforcement in the 7th Congressional District and throughout the state is unmatched.  From helping us keep police officers on the job and equipping them with the resources they need to protect our neighborhoods, to making CopLink a reality in the metro area, his work on behalf of our community has been tireless.  We couldn’t ask for a better voice, a better champion, a better neighbor, to represent the 7th Congressional District and continue helping us serve and protect the citizens of this area.  That’s why we gave him our unanimous endorsement and support,” said Frank Gale, the President of the Colorado FOP.

    “I am honored to receive this unanimous endorsement,” said Perlmutter. “Our police officers and law enforcement personnel put their lives on the line for us every day, and I want to continue making sure they have the resources they need to do their job keeping us safe and secure. ”

    Ed sat on the Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing and Terrorism Risk Assessment for the House Homeland Security Committee  (committee that deals with local law enforcement issues). Ed has a long history of supporting local law enforcement and public safety initiatives from his on-the-ground support of the CopLink program to his time in private law practice representing the county sheriff’s association legal matters, and his state senate efforts to help pass the Amber Alert law,

    While Perlmutter consistently voted for more police officers on our streets, his opponent, Ryan Frazier, continues to flip flop and say one thing about how he is supportive of law enforcement officers, while his actions show a different story.

    While Frazier was a vocal advocate of a voter approved mandate to hire two cops per thousand residents during his first city council race, Frazier was the lone city council member who opposed this effort when it came time to vote to send the measure back to the voters for funding approval, stating “‘Who said two officers per 1,000 residents was what we need to go after in the first place?'(Aurora Sentinel Sunday, April 4, 2004).

    Additionally, Frazier, who sits on the Public Safety Committee for the City Council and works for the taxpayers of Aurora has been labeled the most absent councilman in Aurora missing approximately 30% of the last 53 City Council meetings in the past two years. (Colorado Independent, Weds., August 18, 2010).

    Below are some of Ed’s law enforcement accomplishments from law career, from the state senate and in Congress:

    ·         Saving Law Enforcement Jobs: Ed voted to support the bill that will prevent the layoffs of tens of thousands of police officers and firefighters by closing the loophole on multinational corporations who outsource American jobs.

    ·         COPLINK:  Ed secured $587,000 for the North Metro Task Force (which includes Adams County) to purchase COPLINK, a real-time, integrated criminal database.

    ·         Open Source Enhancement Act (HR 3815):  Ed introduced and passed out of the House the Open Source Enhancement Act to provide local law enforcement consolidated reports detailing the latest trends and activity in the world of homeland security and recommendations on how to apply these developments into day-to-day police work.

    ·         Methamphetamine Response Collaborative:  Ed secured $1.052 million for Jefferson County to purchase equipment related to their meth response unit.

    ·         Represented County Sheriff’s Association: In 2003, while in private law practice, Ed represented the county Sheriff’s Association in connection with business and financial transactions.

    ·         See Something, Say Something Act:  In May 2007, Ed broke party-lines to vote for an amendment on the Rail and Public Transportation Security Act which provided legal immunity from any liability an individual might encounter as a result of reporting suspicious activity.

    ·         Sponsored Family Testimony Bill in Murder Trials: In the state senate, Ed sponsored and passed the law allowing families of murder victims to testify during sentencing of the perpetrator.  This was in response to the murder of Officer Mossbrucker in Jefferson County.

    ·         Sponsored Domestic Violence Data:  Ed was the primary sponsor in the state senate of a law making courts help out families more in domestic violence cases.

    ·         Amber Alert:  Ed sponsored and helped pass the law establishing the Amber Alert System to notify broadcast media statewide when an abduction of a child is confirmed.

    Fun With Frazier!

    We joked earlier about Republican Ryan Frazier’s trip to the U.S./Mexico border to prove that he is really on top of the illegal immigration issue. Well, that post got us to start wondering about what else Frazier has been looking at lately.

    We’re not done with this joke — not by far. We want to see your submissions, Polsters. Show us your best photoshopping of Ryan Frazier in front of various places that demonstrate his commitment to an important campaign issue. Post your pictures in the comments below, and we’ll compile the best for a Colorado Pols vote! Meanwhile, check out some of our findings:

    Here’s Ryan Frazier showing his commitment to the military. Look, a helicopter!

    Here’s Ryan Frazier demonstrating his commitment to jobs and the economy, by proving he knows where to find the Colorado Department of Labor building:

    More after the jump…

    Here’s Ryan Frazier showing that the Democrats’ health care plan is bad. They can’t even build real hospitals! This is just a drawing of a hospital!:

    And here’s Ryan Frazier showing that he doesn’t like gay marriage. And he also didn’t like this cake. He hates fruit filling:

    Looking at the US/Mexico Border: The Hip Political Field Trip

    We were going to do a quick Photoshop rendition to illustrate our point, but it turns out that the website for Republican Ryan Frazier (running against Lang Sias for the GOP nomination in CD-7) had the perfect picture already.

    If you think that’s just a picture of Frazier staring at the U.S./Mexico border…you’re right!

    Yesterday, Frazier took part in what has become the coolest, hippest political nonsense move of 2010: Traveling to the southern edges of the U.S. to look at the border and thus show voters how serious you are about illegal immigration.

    Really, look at that picture! Is Ryan Frazier totally serious about illegal immigration or what!? If he wasn’t really, really serious about illegal immigration, then why would he travel hundreds of miles just to look at some dirt and a big fence? Well, what’s your answer to that? Yeah, that’s what we thought. Goddamn right!

    Not only did Frazier travel to the border yesterday, he even held a tele-town hall from the border to discuss illegal immigration. That’s some gen-U-ine commitment to the issue right there! You can’t really talk about illegal immigration until you’ve stood there, in the middle of the day, and stared at a fence between the United States and Mexico! Sure, you could talk about illegal immigration from Colorado, but it’s not the same as doing it from Arizona or New Mexico, now is it?

    Thanks for joining me, Ryan Frazier, on the call tonight. I’m right here at the U.S./Mexico border, talking to you from a place where illegal immigrants are probably not crossing into the country on account of this gigantic fence and the big presence at this particular location. But lemme tell you something — I’m going to do something about illegal immigration! If you elect me to Congress, I might even come back here to stare at the border some more! I’ve seen the border with my own eyes! Has Lang Sias looked at it with his own eyes? What about Ed Perlmutter? I don’t know — maybe they have. But I’m the only one who took time to come down here during this important election season and stare at it. And I really stared at it, my friends! I stared the hell out of it!

    So Long, Lang?

    The campaign for Republican Lang Sias, one of two GOP hopefuls in CD-7, reported raising just $74,460 in Q2. Sias now has a measly $102,566 cash on hand (COH), which probably won’t be enough to get him past Ryan Frazier in the primary. Frazier raised $184,316 in Q2, for a total COH amount of $401,292.

    The winner of the Republican Primary is probably a moot argument anyway, since incumbent Democrat Ed Perlmutter $1,391,084 in the bank.

    Tancredo Loves Him Some Jimmy Lakey

    To this point we’ve been generally dismissive of radio host Jimmy Lakey’s hints at running for Congress in CD-7. Radio personalities, like Dan Caplis, often talk about becoming candidates but never actually make the jump.

    But it appears as though Lakey is really running, as evidenced by a recent endorsement from former Rep. Tom Tancredo. Take a look at the Tancredo endorsement email after the jump, which warns of illegal immigrants kidnapping your dog, or something, if Lakey’s primary opponents (Ryan Frazier and Lang Sias) win the nomination. “The Republic is at risk!”

    We joke about Tancredo’s endorsement, but in a multi-candidate Republican primary, it could actually play a huge role. Lakey only needs about 10,000 votes to win a three-way race, (there are 85,000 active Republican voters in CD-7, and traditionally only about one-third of eligible voters participate in a primary) and we’re guessing there are a lot of anti-immigrant GOP voters who will take Tancredo’s advice on who to vote for this August. If Lakey can do even a decent job of raising money, he’s got a real shot here.

    Our Republic is at risk and the 2010 election will be crucial if we are to set our country back on the right course. This is why I am asking you to help Jimmy Lakey, a Republican candidate for U.S. Congress in Colorado’s 7th Congressional District.

    No matter where you live in the nation, here is why your help today is so urgent. In the race for the 7th Congressional District, Senator John McCain has endorsed one of Jimmy’s opponents, and now Senator Lindsey Graham has chosen to endorse another opponent.  

    WARNING:

    The “Amnesty Brothers” are coming to Colorado!

    I am pleased to say that Jimmy Lakey is NOT a McCain-Graham Republican.  Jimmy is cut from a different cloth.  He is not one of the “Amnesty Brothers”.  

    This is why I am am asking you to help Jimmy today.   Your generous donation today to Jimmy’s campaign will help Jimmy combat the “Amnesty Brothers” as they come to Colorado to wield their influence.

    The Republic is at risk and we cannot allow politicians and corporate lobbyists to continue to sell our country out to the highest bidder. From immigration, amnesty, economic reform, and the other key issues of the day, we need to send people to Washington, D.C. who will stand firm & advance the conservative cause.

    The “Amnesty Brothers” are working to get their candidates elected in Colorado’s 7th Congressional District, and if they succeed, we will have more of the same in Washington, D.C.  This must not happen!

    Here is what you need to know about Jimmy Lakey:

    1)  Jimmy Lakey is a consistent conservative.  As a former talk-show host on Denver’s 710KNUS, Jimmy is a known quantity for his conservative views.  He didn’t just paint on conservative stripes for this election.  He has stood with conservatives for years.

    2)  Jimmy Lakey gets it.  He is a entrepreneur and business owner who understands the free market and the danger that expansive government poses to our economic future.

    3)  Jimmy Lakey is not one of them.   Jimmy Lakey is not a McCain-Graham Republican!  He understands the need to secure our borders and he understands that we cannot reward illegal behavior by granting amnesty.  He will not speak in platitudes and will not obfuscate on such key issues.

    I’ve often said that the most important thing to look for in a candidate is a desire to advance a conservative agenda as opposed to simply wanting to BE the elected official.  Look at the candidates in the 7th and tell me which one just wants to be a congressman and will say anything to get there. Then listen and get to know Jimmy Lakey. When you do, you will understand why I have agreed to help him all I can. Hope you will too. He is the real deal.

    Would please join me today in supporting Jimmy Lakey For Congress?  

    Whether $25, $250, or even $1000 . . . any donation amount will help Jimmy in his fight to represent you!

    Would you please make a generous donation today to his campaign so that he can stand up for Colorado and fight “The Amnesty Brothers”?

    John McCain Endorses Lang Sias In CD-7

    Arizona Sen. and 2008 GOP presidential nominee John McCain today headlined a fundraising email for former campaign staffer Lang Sias in the crowded CD-7 Republican primary, dealing another blow to the rapidly-dwindling prospects for ex-U.S. Senate candidate Ryan Frazier.

    Full text after the jump: writes McCain, “Lang understands, as I do, that prosperity and economic growth do not come from government bureaucrats, but rather from American small businesses, entrepreneurs and innovation…In Congress, as he has done his entire life, he will be a leader on the issues that matter most to Colorado voters, and their families.”

    We still have no idea who Lang Sias is, but that’s even worse news for Frazier. It’s not good when your opponent is unknown but still gets the bigger endorsement.

    Date: Thu, 10 Dec 2009 04:38:52 +1000

    From: John McCain johnmccain@langsias.com

    Reply-To: John McCain johnmccain@langsias.com

    Subject: Endorsement from John McCain

    Dear Friend:

    As one of my strongest supporters, we share many of the same conservative beliefs in making our country stronger and safer for our families and future generations.  I’m humbled by your support, and I know that together, we can make sure that our best days are still ahead of us.

    I am writing today to tell you about a great American who shares our values and has served our nation with honor and integrity his entire life. Lang Sias has just announced that he is running to represent Colorado’s 7th Congressional District, and I hope that you will SUPPORT HIS CAMPAIGN.

    Lang has put it all on the line for our country many times. He has risked his life in service, flying missions as a navy pilot in the first Iraq War, and more recently serving on the ground in Operation Iraqi Freedom. He has fought for us, and now I am asking you to stand with him.

    He will not allow Democrat Congressman Perlmutter to vote in lockstep with liberal special interests in Washington, DC, when he should be standing with the hard-working families in Colorado.

    I’m proud to have contributed $5,000 from my political action committee to help Lang’s campaign off to a fast start. WON’T YOU JOIN ME IN SUPPORTING LANG WITH YOUR MOST GENEROUS CONTRIBUTION OF $10, $25, OR EVEN $100? Your contribution will help Lang build a strong organization throughout the 7th Congressional District, and help get his positive, conservative message out to voters from Aurora to Arvada.

    Lang understands, as I do, that prosperity and economic growth do not come from government bureaucrats, but rather from American small businesses, entrepreneurs and innovation. We will succeed and grow as a nation when we keep taxes low, reduce government spending and allow businesses to flourish. In Congress, as he has done his entire life, he will be a leader on the issues that matter most to Colorado voters, and their families.

    Please stand with me today to support a true patriot, and help send Lang Sias to the United States Congress.

    Sincerely,

    John McCain

    Pols Poll 2: U.S. Senate (Republicans)

    As we’ve done in other election years, we regularly poll our readers on various races to gauge changing perceptions. These obviously aren’t scientific polls, but they do help to show how the perception of various candidates are changing. We’ll conduct these polls each month and then show the results to see how the winds are shifting.

    As always, please vote based on what you think will happen, not on who you would vote for or which candidate you support personally. Think of it this way: If you had to bet the deed to your house, who would you pick?

    Who Will Be the Republican Nominee for U.S. Senate?

    View Results

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    Frazier Announces for Congress; Some People Even Care

    Apparently Ryan Frazier’s announcement yesterday that he will run for Congress in CD-7 instead of U.S. Senate didn’t go all that well. We’ve heard estimates of only about 30 people, half of whom were staff or volunteers.

    But don’t take our word for it. Here’s a video of Frazier’s announcement speech yesterday, and you can judge for yourself based on the crowd reaction (or embarrassing lack thereof) to Frazier’s uncanny vocal impression of Barack Obama.

    We’ve said before that Frazier is not prepared for a big race like Senate or Congress, and our analysis holds. Weak turnout yesterday, combined with some genius’s idea to hold the kickoff in front of a loud and busy road, doesn’t exactly inspire confidence if you’re a Republican (cue sound of three people clapping).  

    Frazier to Drop Senate Bid, Challenge Perlmutter?

    Say this about Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier: The man has no problems with beating his head against a wall.

    According to The Denver Post, Frazier will soon drop out of the race for U.S. Senate — a race he almost certainly cannot win — in order to challenge incumbent Democrat Ed Perlmutter in CD-7. Which, coincidentally, is also a race he almost certainly cannot win.

    As we’ve written in this space before, Frazier made a bold move by entering the race for U.S. Senate early in the process, but all of the air quickly left his campaign when he reported an abysmal first fundraising quarter. Fortunately for Frazier, whatever money he raised in a bid for U.S. Senate translates into a congressional race, but even so, we’re not so sure this is the best move for him politically. Why?

    Because in a crowded Republican primary for Senate, the odds are better that Frazier could emerge as the GOP nominee than they are that Frazier could win a head-to-head battle against a popular and well-funded two-term incumbent Perlmutter. Frazier pushed all his chips on the table when he announced he was running for the U.S. Senate, and pulling them back now to run for congress doesn’t improve his odds at being elected — it only reduces the size of the pot.

    It would have made a lot more sense for Frazier to run against Perlmutter from the beginning, rather than attempting a U.S. Senate bid. But since he’s already chosen the Senate, he might as well stay on that path. Frazier probably can’t win the GOP nomination for Senate, but he also can’t likely win the congressional seat in CD-7. So he might as well stick with the one that has the bigger payoff.

    Quick side note: While we’re on the subject of CD-7, we had to make a comment on this quick section of the story:

    Frazier was elected to the Aurora City Council in 2003 and re-elected in 2007.

    “I think people forget that as a city councilman at-large, Frazier represents the entire city of Aurora,” said Dick Wadhams, chairman of the Colorado Republican Party.

    Aurora, population 319,000, is Colorado’s third-largest city.

    Yes, Aurora is Colorado’s third-largest city, but the city is split between different congressional districts. Furthermore, city council elections in any place other than Denver, where large sums of money is spent and a lot of media attention is generated, are always generally ignored by the public. A very small percentage of people vote in municipal elections (Frazier won the election with a meager 14,645 total votes in 2007, while 41,836 Aurorans voted for Perlmutter in 2008), so being an at-large candidate in Aurora is completely irrelevant in terms of name ID. No doubt most Aurora voters couldn’t name any of their city council members.

    Pols Poll: U.S. Senate (Republicans)

    With less than a year until the 2010 primaries, it’s time to start the annual Colorado Pols Polls.

    As we’ve done in other election years, we regularly poll our readers on various races to gauge changing perceptions. These obviously aren’t scientific polls, but they do help to show how the perception of various candidates are changing. We’ll conduct these polls each month and then show the results to see how the winds are shifting (click to see the Democratic poll).

    As always, please vote based on what you think will happen, not on who you would vote for or which candidate you support personally. Think of it this way: If you had to bet the deed to your house, who would you pick?

    Who Will Be the Republican Nominee for U.S. Senate?

    View Results

    Loading ... Loading ...

    Rasmussen Shows Mixed Bag for Bennet

    Rasmussen Reports decided to drop a poll into the field on Colorado’s U.S. Senate race at an unfortunate time. While the poll shows that incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet is not very popular, the matchups between potential challengers Ken Buck and Ryan Frazier are all but irrelevant now that Jane Norton has entered the race on the Republican side.

    But rather than focus on what the Rasmussen poll does not tell us about 2010, let’s look instead at the small nuggets of valuable information that it does contain.

    Bennet outpolls Buck 43-37, but trails Frazier 40-39. While giddy Frazier supporters (both of them) will no doubt point to this as proof that their man has what it takes to be the next GOP Senator from Colorado, that’s not the case. Looking a little deeper into the poll shows why:

    Fourteen percent (14%) of Colorado voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Bennet while 18% have a Very Unfavorable view. His opponents are less well known and nearly half the state’s voters don’t have even a soft impression of either candidate. Buck is viewed Very Favorably by 9% and Very Unfavorably by 7%. For Frazier, the numbers are 6% and 6% respectively.

    As you can see, Frazier outpolls Buck in a head-to-head despite the fact (or rather, because of the fact) that nobody knows who he is. In this poll, Frazier basically plays the roll of the “generic Republican candidate,” and what voters are saying is that right now they’ll take an unknown Republican candidate over Bennet…but that doesn’t mean they would take Frazier. This would be bad news for Bennet even if he wasn’t facing a difficult primary challenge from former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, but it’s also not terribly different from what a lot of elected officials are seeing around the country: People just don’t like the incumbents.

    To illustrate that last point, take a look at the toplines. Bennet’s total popularity rating is at 43% — not good, certainly, but not awful for an unknown Senator, either. Buck is at 35% and Frazier at 26% when it comes to favorability, which gets back to our earlier point about the head-to-head matchups. Voters appear to like a generic Republican candidate better than Bennet, but Buck and Frazier certainly aren’t popular enough to fill that role. Would Norton poll better in this regard? Perhaps.

    The biggest concern for Bennet is in the 34% negative rating he holds. This is pretty high for someone whom the public really doesn’t know at all. It’s a lot easier to move from unknown to favorable than it is from unliked to favorable, and Bennet needs to hurry up on fixing this problem before it starts to snowball on him.

     

    Norton Reconsidering Senate Bid?

    The hot rumor circulating this morning is that as-yet undeclared GOP Senate candidate Jane Norton had a deal–and now she doesn’t. And when the deal falls though, you usually walk away, don’t you?

    As you know, evidence that the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) was preparing to devote resources to Norton’s campaign–which would have had the effect of severely debilitating primary opponents–caused a major backlash among the Republican rank-and-file last week. By Friday, the situation had gotten to the point that the leading (declared) GOP candidate, Weld County DA Ken Buck, was widely reported to be getting out of the race.

    Today, though, everything has changed–Buck is defiantly staying in the race. Colorado GOP chairman Dick Wadhams, who everybody we’ve talked to believes was intimately involved in the NRSC’s backroom commitments to Norton, is running away from this debacle as fast as his denials can carry him. The GOP activist base, now sensitized to what almost happened right under their noses, will be watching for any further shenanigans–and they’ve used this opportunity to remind leadership in no uncertain terms what they think of “RINOs” like Jane Norton.

    So where does that leave her?

    Frankly, it depends–if an agreement for Norton to enter the 2010 Senate race was contingent on clearing the primary field for her, as it was for 2008 Senate candidate Bob Schaffer, she’s now got a very good reason to reconsider. Or she could decide to stay and fight. Given that Norton has been floated as a potential candidate for higher office for years, and has always declined, it wouldn’t shock us if she ultimately decided not to run for Senate.

    The word we’re getting–we’ll remind everyone that it’s only a rumor, though on good authority, and people do change their minds regardless–is the backlash of the last few days was considerably more than she bargained for.

    The New-Look GOP Field for U.S. Senate

    Republicans have lately been dropping in and out of the U.S. Senate race like it’s a student council seat, so we thought it time to take a new look at what’s what now that we’re past the 12 month mark until the primary.

    TOP OF THE LINE

  • Former Lt. Governor Jane Norton

  • Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck

    It’s been more than a decade since Colorado last had a female candidate running for a top job (Governor or U.S. Senate), and that gives Norton a big advantage because it makes her interesting. Political campaigns are about telling stories, and the best stories are the ones you haven’t heard before. Norton also has a good background to run on, has deep financial connections, and she’ll cut an attractive image on television.

    That doesn’t mean that Norton is without question marks, however. Norton has been mentioned as a potential candidate for everything from Governor to Congress in the last decade, but she always took a pass on what seemed at the time to be good opportunities. Was she just waiting for the right moment, and felt that 2010 was finally that time? Or is running for office something she really doesn’t feel in her gut? Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet has had two monster fundraising quarters, and it’s going to take a lot of effort to be able to catch up to him.

    As for Buck, he’s been working hard and was the only GOP candidate to raise any kind of legitimate money in the first fundraising period. He’s sufficiently conservative enough (and probably too far to the right, for a general election, frankly) to win a primary, but what’s the best-case scenario here? This was Buck’s nomination to lose until the GOP found someone better, which may have just happened with Norton. While Buck has been putting in the shoe leather and doing his damndest to make a real run at this, his ceiling just isn’t that high. Buck is what he is, but can he ever be more than that?

    THEORETICAL CONTENDER

  • Former State Sen. Tom Wiens
  • When Wiens resigned from the Senate a few years ago, the working assumption was that he was going to devote himself full-time to a run for Governor. At the time, Wiens had the credentials and the personal wealth to make a strong bid in 2010, but a lot has changed in less than two years. For one thing, Wiens is widely rumored to be having personal financial troubles, which makes it tough to run statewide for dogcatcher. Wiens has also been off the grid for a little too long now; when he first resigned, he could have moved quickly into an exploratory campaign for Governor and kept his name ID and conservative credentials at the forefront of voter’s minds. But now?

    If everything lined up right, we think Wiens could be a potentially tough candidate. But it doesn’t look like anything is lining up correctly at this point, and we have real doubts that Wiens will even be an official candidate three months from now.

    NOT READY FOR PRIME TIME

  • Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier
  • It made sense for Frazier to take a shot here-it really did. With no obvious candidate on the GOP side and a little-known incumbent, this was as good a year as there has ever been for an unknown candidate to emerge from nowhere. For a time Frazier had even managed to generate a good deal of excitement among a group of Republicans, but then reality hit. In his first full fundraising quarter, Frazier went out and laid an egg, raising a paltry $140k (compared to $330k for Buck and $1.2 million for Bennet). And that was that.

    Frazier’s campaign isn’t completely dead, but it’s definitely on life-support. His only real chance at winning the nomination was to come out strong and show people that he really had what it took to be a statewide player despite a tiny resume. When he didn’t do that, top GOP supporters started looking elsewhere.

    Someone who was just an Aurora city council member should never have even been considered for the U.S. Senate, and there was no harm in trying to seize the moment. But that moment has definitely passed, and with Norton’s entry into the race, there really isn’t room for Frazier anymore.

    And please, don’t mention that Frazier has done well in straw polls. Nobody cares.

    CLEVE TIDWELL DIVISION

  • Businessman Cleve Tidwell
  • Um, yeah.

    Beauprez’s Out, Which Means Norton’s In

    From Politics West:

    Former Congressman Bob Beauprez will not run for the U.S. Senate, he said in an email to supporters this afternoon.

    “Having been presented with the potential to serve in the United States Senate, Claudia and I considered it very carefully. However after significant reflection, I will not be a candidate for the Senate in 2010,” he wrote.

    His decision leaves four GOP candidates: Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier, Evergreen businessman Dan Maes and Cleve Tidwell of Denver. Last week, the Denver Post reported that former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton is also looking at entering the GOP field.

    Let’s face it: Beauprez isn’t running because he looked around, considered various staffers, and finally realized what we’d been saying for a long time. He. Can’t. Win.

    It’s no secret that Beauprez has been wanting to get back into politics since 2006, but he’s still way too much damaged goods.

    Meanwhile, Jane Norton’s Senate bid is basically a lock at this point. Everybody’s talking about it. Democrats we’ve talked to this evening seem awfully confident, like they know something we don’t know. That’s likely to be the case for a majority of Colorado voters, a good percentage of whom probably think her first name is Gale. Though to be fair, voters could think her first name was “Ken,” and it’s still a positive for her. Name ID is name ID, especially in a GOP primary–and general election–where nobody knows anybody.

    And for all the buzz about “salvation,” we kind of doubt Ken Buck sees it that way–and he’s probably the one extant candidate we’re not writing off yet.

    UPDATE: We omitted Cleve Tidwell from our original post. We regret the error. Deeply.