CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
July 16, 2009 08:20 PM UTC
43 Comments
Is your assumption, that any Democrat can win CD 6 in any election. It has been proven time and time again when Democrats had good, well funded candidates (clear back when a district was formed based in Arapahoe, Douglas and South Jefferson Counties in 1972) that a Democrat in fact can’t win in that district. It doesn’t matter how well known (Joan FitzGerald, Martha Ezzard) or how well funded (both of them plus at least the “treasure your vote ” woman), or how bad a year for Democrats (1974, 2008) the Democrat always gets the same amount. About 40%. It just doesn’t matter what else happens. Quit wasting time and money on this race. There are actually some seats that remain Republican no matter what, and this is one of them. The demographics aren’t really even changing. So, your basic assumption is wrong.
Craig,
I have looked at the numbers yes I assume it will be a very long shot bid to win in CD 6 but I think someone can win.
The reason I personally see it that way is a few reasons. 1. The Dem’s have not put up real strong dem in the past few cycles. Eng and Winter each had major and different issues. Winter pissed off about everyone in the party and Eng never raised any real money.
I think there is a real shot with some national investement to not only beat coffman this year with the republican base split still and not in love with him. If you put up someone with the right profile and they can raise some real money with backing from the DCCC… there is a chance. Coffman only raised 109033.54 this quarter which is SAD for him.
I do worry about the major mistakes I did see in one of the Dem’s FEC report. It just underscores they are not worried about the little things.
Flerlage has a nice profile and Canter is great guy one on one. I think if either of them had some funds, they could really make a strong run at Coffman.
That being said, both Canter and Flerlage should have there butts glued to chairs and dialing for dollars 6 – 8 hours a day even for 10 dollar checks.
Wishful thinking.
Coffman’s modest fundraising this quarter is a sign of strength, not weakness. How much did DeGette and Polis raise this quarter? Does that mean they’re vulnerable?
The Republican base is fine with Mike Coffman. Remember, this is the same district that swallowed Tom Tancredo year after year, outrage after outrage. The only Republicans who might be bothered that Coffman isn’t crazy enough will never vote for a Democrat.
CO1 is a D+21 and CO2 is a D+11. CO6 is an R+8.
Again, not that it isn’t challenging, but the 6th isnt nearly as republican as 1 and 2 are democratic. DeGette and Polis are far safer simply due to registration numbers (and yes…I know they are both very safe)
According to the July 1 registration numbers from the secretary of state’s office, here’s the breakdown for active voters in the 6th CD:
43.5% R
28.8% U
27.3% D
You can do the math yourself:
454,646 total active voters
197,791 Republicans
130,818 unaffiliated
124,145 Democrats
(there are also 1,299 Libertarians, 408 Greens and 173 American Constitutions)
It’s actually a broader spread between Republicans and Democrats in the 6th than the other direction in the 2nd, which breaks down this way:
39.3% D
34.2% U
25.7% R
Sorry — didn’t mean to say registration — I meant based on their voting trends. My numbers are the Cook PVI scores for those districts, which are better than registration for seeing how people actually vote
is your last paragraph and that’s a keeper, advice wise. Very, very sage advice and well said, TheDeminator. I think the fact that some candidates just don’t understand how much dialing for dollars is involved in a successful campaign is indicative of why they continue to lose.
Flerlage has positives as a candidate; great record, endorsements, decent in front of people, but so-so one-on-one, rough around the edges. His campaign is a joke, and he knows this. His “machine” does not exist and his campaign is only now starting to get serious about organizing. He has a half-brand that might be able to go against Coffman, if he could just bring himself to take media exposure seriously and work with a strategy. He doesn’t think he needs one, and the results are apparent as you illustrate.
Canter has more polished one-on-one skills, but a practically non-existent record. That would be okay if he was getting exposure, instead of marching in parades and still hosting house parties with the same crowd he was months ago.
Put them both together and you have a candidate that could stand a fighting chance.
Apart, they could learn a lot from one another’s deficits and strengths.
Coffman could be dethroned. He has created unnecessary obstacles for himself and even his base is apathetic at best. He’s vulnerable, but not to two candidates who should have hit the ground running and are only now looking for ways to get recognition. …Or are they just having fun in the attempt and not really taking it seriously? Flerlage more than anyone, should have known that he’d have tremendous ground to gain if he’d ever have a chance at overtaking Coffman.
Canter or Flerlage, either of them, could have at least come close, if not outright won, if they had taken this seriously and started out being organized and prepared with a real plan and actual staff from the start. By not doing these things, taking a slow roll out as a given, refusing to look at non-traditional campaign models, socializing more than strategizing, they lost long ago.
That was one of the more laughable things I’ve seen today. “I think if either of them had some funds, they could really make a strong run at Coffman” Coffman beat Eng by 20 points. Granted Eng was a horrible candidate. This seat is Mike Coffman’s as long as he wants it. That it is unless the Dems can find a way to drastically change the registration advantage when they redistrict. Bet that won’t happen either. Semper Fi
I think one of them could make a run, I never said it would be an easy race to win. If the dems win the trust of voters closer to 2010 race Coffman could be in trouble.
Doh!
Ras has been an outlier for some time now. If you’re going to be showing us polling on D vs. R issues, at least use a reputable source. Ever since Obama was elected, Ras has completely deviated from every other polling outfit I’ve seen. I completely ignore everything that comes out of Rassmussen.
Are not better candidates than Dems have had in the past
I also have to disagree. Fitzgerald had a bit of the 6th, but did not run in this district (please correct me if I’m wrong). What the 6th needs is a popular local elected with good money ties. Yes we have had some decently funded candidates (Bill Winter was a prolific fundraiser for what he had to start with), but still not to the level needed. Also, we have not had a candidate with the name ID already when they ran.
Is it theoretically possible for David or John to do it? Yes…it is theoretically possible. But it would require a massive influx of money in Q3 and that does not seem realistic at this juncture.
Realistically, if one of the state reps in the district (yes there are a few dem state reps there) decides to step up to the plate, or another elected (Steve Ludwig?) decided to go for it, they might be able to raise the money needed.
Let’s be blunt about the numbers here — there isn’t anything inherently worse about CD6 than CD4 in terms of registration. Paccione came close by raising a lot of money and running an aggressive campaign. Markey won by…wait for it…raising a lot more money and running an aggressive campaign.
Fitz-Gerald DID run in the 6th; I believe this was in 1994 or 1996, long before the 7th district was created after the 2000 census.
Results were
Schaefer 146,018
Fitz-Gerald 88,600
I didn’t realize she had run back then. Regardless, the boundaries were very different no? I mean since it was prior to the creation of the 7th?
My only point with my arguments here is that the 6th (the current 6th) is winnable — we just haven’t had a candidate run since it was created that could do it.
Yes, the 6th before the most recent redistricting included north Jeffco precincts that have elected plenty of Democrats this decade. The 6th was MORE balanced when Fitz-Gerald (and everyone else) got trounced, and has a higher concentration of conservatives and Republicans NOW than it did in the ’82 or ’92 configuration.
There are 20 more republican districts (again based on PVI) that are dem controlled and two others that are roughly as republican that are dem controlled.
CO6, with the right candidate, is a winnable district.
At the end of the day, the vast majority of races goes to whoever raises more money and it’s that simple.
That, and a metric-pantload of money. Put seven-plus figures in a warchest behind the right D, and you a ballgame.
I mean isn’t part of being the right candidate being able to raise the money? 🙂
vs. the right incumbent (Musgrave was polarizing and engendered actual hatred Coffman never will)
with a boatload of money (not just what Markey raised, but what Stryker funneled through DOW and others)
in the right year (whatever her qualities, Markey benefited from a general throw-the-bums out reaction which won’t exist next year — quite the contrary, even if it’s small there will be a backlash against Democrats because the economy won’t be fixed yet).
Since none of these factors will be the case in 2010, what are we talking about? Does Nomadic just want someone to agree that, theoretically, if the stars align, a Democrat could win the 6th?
All signs point to Democratic victory.
It’s pretty dang unlikely. And with the next redistricting, it’s just gonna get less likey.
But it is fun to romanticize the “what if” . And if the money was there, that’d be a fun-as-hell campaign to work on, a total street fight.
In a way — actually the coversation that is following below is what I was interested in seeing. I just get tired of people say “this district isn’t winnable” and “that district will be (insert party here) controlled forever.” These things change — there are way more republican districts in dem hands than CD6.
As my original posts said — neither Canter nor Flerledge are raising the money and don’t have a huge well to draw on in terms of public support.
I know there are people out there who could do it.
Coffman isn’t going to be the kind of gift from the political gods that Musgrave was and he’ll keep CD6 as long as he wants it.
The district will not be targeted and absent heavy targeting the money will never be there. Discouraged district Dems will write out small checks to show support but we’ve been so sadly disappointed, watching the red to blue changes passing our CD by, even while we’ve gained HD38 and SD26, we’re pretty burned out as volunteers and contributors at CD level. We await redistricting and the planets perfectly aligned.
the district was formed in 1982, not 1972. Steve Hogan was the first Democrat to run, back when he was a Democrat, and he lost huge to astronaut Jack Swigert, who promptly died. Dan Schaefer replaced him and held the seat until the Tancredo years. The rest of your analysis is right on.
And by extension, this seat is Mike Coffman’s for as long as he wants to run for it.
I didn’t really go so far as to say a D could win- but I did say for that happen to certain conditions would be required…. and you forced me to think on it a bit.
Yes- a D could win. The “right” D, with the right conditions including well funded.
I don’t care about the 70’s. Or even the 80’s. THe world has moved on- including s. suburban Denver.
Geez – Ford carried Arap County in 74. No way can Obama win here. Obama won Arap County Big.
Do I think either current D candidate would have a chance even if well funded?
IDK- but it appears we’ll never know because they mistaken believe the path to victory lies in patience, humility, dignity, ideas and partisan affiliation. Or something.
They should be blasting Coffman and standing in the middle of busy intersections lighting their hair on fire and writing solid, confrontational pieces in Post, here and anywhere else they can post.
Especially since the district didn’t exist in the ’70s, but there is some continuity to the district’s political leanings because of enduring structural factors.
The 6th District is where everyone went who could afford to (and wanted to) move out of Denver to escape busing in the ’70s — and the home of the Poundstone Amendment, which hemmed in Denver. To a point, those attitudes cross generations.
The 6th CD has also always been bookmarked on the east and west by Buckley AFB and Lockheed Martin — and their employees and contractors live in the 6th.
The district also has the highly concentrated old-line affluent burbs of Cherry Hills and Greenwood Villages — not a lot of votes, but a ton of money.
There’s also always been a higher concentration of evangelical and mega-church populations in the south metro area, and that’s still true today.
Obama fell 7 points short of McCain in the 6th — a lot worse than the Democrat did in the 4th, where McCain won by a point, and a lot better than Obama did in the 5th, where McCain won by almost 20 points. It’s true this was a much better performance by a Democrat than in previous elections, but there are some built-in factors to the district that make it very hard for a Democrat to prevail.
Has any D presidential candidate ever been within 7 points in CD6?
I agree about the enduring blah blah blah
But – the northeast side of CD6 continues changing – younger, more socially progressive voters who will not be rallied by the wedge issues of recent elections. The far west side is a toss up. So it’s the 1-25 corridor and Douglas county.
1-25 corridor Precincts in Arap went for Obama and Coffman. Douglas County was all McCain and COffman. (or all enough)
Is Douglas county going to change? I don’t think anytime soon.
So- it would have to be a D candidate with large crossover appeal south of Park Meadows. Uhhhh…… I can’t think of any.
But all of that is besides my point: the candidates we have, while apparently smart, and polite and solid people are doomed to fail bc they are not raising funds. Perhaps they are working it as hard as possible- and the money is just too doubtful and scarce. I hope so.
Because if not, it means that they just don’t get it.
the candidates “are doomed to fail bc they are not raising funds,” I’d say these two particular candidates are not raising funds because they’re doomed to fail. Tomato, tomahto.
My description of some enduring, as you say, blah blah blahs wasn’t meant to characterize the district as a whole, but to point out why the district’s history can be illuminating. And the point about Obama’s margin of loss — a Democrat can do well in this district , it’s true, but has to be a rock star with deep, deep pockets in the right election year … Obama was all these things and he still lost the district by a substantial margin, and that was with the crossover votes you point out split between Obama and Coffman.
Regardless, Democrats only get one more shot at this district before it gets redrawn.
You say
I say – knock some doors in CD6- organize a campaign for a statewide candidate and you’ll see- it’ aint’ always what it looks like here from the outside looking in.
That said- Coffman is a lock for the foreseeable future.
Great advice. I’ve knocked on thousands of doors in the 6th over the years. I don’t know how it looks to outsiders, but I do know these two should try running for the state legislature before taking on a guy who’s been winning elections for two decades.
Honestly. They could build up some cred doing so.
I have to say I agree with you.
Same for the past two cycles’ candidates
has nothing to do with whether a D can or cannot win in CD6.
Seriously guys – CD6 is a Republican stronghold
In addition, and more importantly, Congressman Mike Coffman is one of the best Congressmen in America – the dude is sharp, intelligent, and he returns phone calls – his constituents love him
Even in a non-Republican year, I find it hard to beat a guy like Coffman
I’m a CD6 resident. What I see is a guy who I initially respected for not agreeing to be on the same stage as that chickenhawk draft-dodging Tom Tancredo, but who then tacked sharply to the right and began kissing Tancredo’s hindquarters to get elected. Disgusting hypocrisy.
Since I assume you would rate any GOP Congressman better than any Dem, if you think Coffman is really the best your party can field, that says a lot for how weak the Republican Party is nowadays.
But you’re right about one thing: for the foreseeable future, at least, CD6 is a lock for the GOP. However, did you know that Arapahoe County now has more registered Dems than Reps? The times, they are a-changing.
is this on the front page??? Pols is better than wasting space with this diary.
Get this off the front page! It shows a rare instance where nearly any Dem is guaranteed getting their ass kicked.
Must….lock…step….
Back in 2002, I believe, the Dems ran some weirdo whose campaign picture had him wearing a Colonel Sanders bowtie and who had some sort of bizarre eco-love platform. He got about 40% of the vote. Then in 2004 they ran a very savvy, formerly Republican, quite classy lady whose name I forget, and she got about 40% of the vote despite being well funded. Then in 2006 they ran Bill Winter, and same thing – about 40 percent. Then in 2008, same thing: about 40 percent.