U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Jena Griswold
60%
60%
40%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Alexis King
(D) Brian Mason
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) A. Gonzalez
(D) George Stern
(R) Sheri Davis
50%↑
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%
30%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Joe Salazar
50%
40%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
April 06, 2006 08:00 AM UTC
28 Comments
” It’s worse news for Beauprez, who hasn’t seen positive movement now for months.”
****************
ROFL
Way to go, CoPols! I swear, if the Rockies won their next game 5-4, your headline would read:
“Rockies Almost Lose”
LOL
You tell us how this is good news for Beauprez. We don’t mind the criticism, but can you at least bring an argument?
Disclaimer:
a) I’ve often posted here (and this still holds) that I put very little faith in these polls.
The current poll indicates a dead heat – and this is bad news for Beauprez? True, his number hasn’t changed much since the last one. What HAS changed is that Ritter’s number has fallen. THAT’s the bad news in this poll. To claim it’s worse for Beauprez is a view with the rose-colored glasses.
;^)
I’m kinda with BMR on this one guys… Bob is still gaining ground, not as fast as Holtzman, but still his numbers are going the right way.
Ritter though… The engine on that campaign has siezed up. That guy is like a wounded animal waiting for Holtzman to finish him off.
The BB Campaign has all but stalled. One need only look at how long its been since there was any news released by the campaign since the caucuses. Nary a word.
Looking at how the establishment is acting in Washington, how the establishment ripped taxpayers off (Refs C & D), and the trashing of individual rights in Colorado. This just shows that people aren’t buying the “Principled Conservative” strategy.
Just because your Campaign Manager worked for the Christian Coalition, does not mean that all conservatives will buy this stuff. Can you say “Bait and Switch?”
“You tell us how this is good news for Beauprez.”
……….
BTW, CoPols – I didn’t SAY it was ‘good news’ for BB – overall, it’s pretty much ‘no news’, since his numbers haven’t moved a whole lot in either direction. But that doesn’t make it BAD news, either, as you’ve claimed.
The worry from this poll ought to be in Camp Ritter, as I see it.
The Raz poll from February had it at 40-33, Ritter v. Beauprez.
Now it’s 41-40.
Now, I’m no math scholar, but it seems to me that BB has GAINED 7 points since that February poll.
So where’s the justification for this comment?
“It’s worse news for Beauprez, who hasn’t seen positive movement now for months.”
Better yet. With Beauprez neck and neck with Ritter, and Holtzman gaining steam shows that Dems and Moderate Republicans prefer with Ritter or Beauprez. Can you say “Big Government”? That being said, what will BB do in the conservative sections of Colorado?
BB’s close ties to the current administration are going to be tough to deflect:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060406/ap_on_go_pr_wh/cia_leak_5
Things to consider about this poll:
1. Rass has a historic Republican tilt. At least when polling on George W. They always seem to be much kinder than NYT, CBS, NBC, Wall St Journal, etc.
2. Favorables for BB and BR are both listed at 52%. BB’s negatives are a tad higher the BR. I wish they would have listed name recognition too.
3. Only 75% of Dems say they are supporting BR. At SoapBlox, we continue to fight about Ritter, but I’m hoping Dems come home in the next 7 months. The article didn’t list GOP support for BB.
“There was no indication in the filing that either Bush or Cheney authorized Libby to disclose Valerie Plame’s CIA identity.”
………….
Next?
So, perhaps telling us about these ‘close ties’ would help? Is the implication here that Congressman Beauprez had something to do with the nothingburger that is the Plame story?
Which has what to do with the Raz poll, which indicates a net gain of 7 points to Beauprez since the February poll?
1. Rass has a historic Republican tilt. At least when polling on George W. They always seem to be much kinder than NYT, CBS, NBC, Wall St Journal, etc.
*************
ROFL
Funny, no one was saying that when Hick (the non-candidate) was trouncing both BB and Holtzman.
Now the numbers are even, and here come the spin doctors.
As for ‘W’, here’s some additional help:
President George W. Bush won the popular vote on November 2 by a 50.7% to 48.2% margin over Senator John Kerry. The final Rasmussen Reports projection had shown the President winning 50.2% to 48.5%. The Wall Street Journal named Rasmussen Reports one of the “big winners” of Election 2004.
(in other words, Rasmussen nailed it solid in ’04).
All I know is that I’m voting for the guy with the really good credit rating, and that’s Bob Beauprez!
BMR. Look at their daily tracking poll. It consistently higher than other polls. Not sure if they are doing Registered Voters, Likely Voters, or just people. I was well aware the Rass got the vote right in ’04. Much better than Zogby, that’s for sure.
Hick trounced ’em all because Hick has phenomenal “favorable” numbers, up in the high 60s.. and that with only 80% name recognition.
Well, in THIS poll they’re doing Likely Voters.
It still doesn’t support your “Republican tilt” claim.
As for the CBS/Gallup polls, it’s instructional to know that they routinely weight the respondents that are Democrats – which is why they routinely got it wrong in ’04.
I will repost this from my post on yesterday’s open thread:
Here is what the poll really seems to be saying (sorry shills of either candidate…)
Most Coloradans now know the three gubenatorial candidates and the party for which they are a representative of. Ritter is known as the Democrat, the only Dem. Holtzman and Beauprez are known as the Republicans. Notice, the questions asked were always Ritter (D) vs. Republican Candidate. All this poll shows (as is true for most polls taken pre-primaries) is that there is a larger majority of those polled who would vote Dem, but the Rs are catching up. Since each candidate now has decent recognition, this is no longer at this point about name recognition, but about D vs. R. The majority of Dems will always choose D (Ritter) as he is their only candidate, and Republicans seem to be saying there is a preference to Beauprez, but, as is true in most elections, will vote party line either way.
At this point, name recognition stops being important. There is a larger jump in numbers for Holtzman than either candidate because he has been in the press recently as much as the other two, thus his name recognition is higher than his previous low numbers. This means that more casual R’s know who he is (a Rep candidate) and when given the choice of D (Ritter) vs. R (Holtzman), they will vote Holtzman now knowing who he is. I would like to see another poll as thorough as the initial Rasmussen poll; that kind of poll would give better direction. But as far as this poll is concerned, this is the only information that can be scientifically gleaned.
At this point in the campaign the lead GOP (who still has to face his primary) and the only Dem in a statistical dead heat with 19% of the vote undecided/not answering is pretty good for a Dem in Colorado. If these were the numbers in September I would be a lot more concerned, but in April I’m not complaining.
So where’s Pols’ response to BMR? To say that closing a 7 point gap is “definitely not good news” is to be huffing paint.
I hear some house Dems just took some more secret money from a group called hibbety-jibbety, Inc. It’s all good….
http://www.researchanddemocracy.org
Pacified, let me see if I got this right. You’re making statements regarding the validity of polls and you don’t even know if we’re talking registered voters. Sorry, but that’s about as braindead a political analysis as I have ever encountered. While I don’t agree with everyone who regularly posts here, it’s just too bright a crowd to come in here with such an argument based on….well, I’m not sure what it’s based on, and you certainly are without a clue. And that’s the problem. We’re not stupid!!!!
I think the only thing you can deduce from the polling data discussed above is that the electorate is not terribly fond of any of the three candidates. I’m certain that the three campaigns know that all too well.
We amended the post to better explain our point, which is that Beauprez’s numbers have been in the same general area for months; since he lost the lead he first had in October, he’s been stuck in the 36% range. That’s worse for Beauprez than a decline is for Ritter because Beauprez has a primary opponent.
The amendment is well taken.
It’s no big thing that both Holtzman and Beauprez may be gaining on Ritter simply because Ritter isn’t in the news. The one benefit of even a brutal brawl like now going on between Holtzman and Beauprez is that it does give them free media and public attention while Ritter is generally ignored by all but hard-core groupies. Viewed in this light, Beauprez’s inability to raise his numbers against the largely ignored ritter is somewhat negative. But the real fight right now is MH and BB, and the jury is still out on that one. When that’s settled, the question will be can the winner re-unite the party and have a chance to win, or is this going to be Schaffer/Coor all over again, a fight to mutual destruction?
If the numbers of campaign pins being worn at last Saturday’s Jeffco Assembly are any indication (and I am not sure they are), Beauprez will easily defeat Hotzman in the Primary.
Jeffco is the heart of Beaurez’s Congressional district and he ought to run very well there, Drum and Cannon. Apparently, he is. Holtzman’s personal attacks apparently aren’t playing well in forums like their recent Club 20 matchup, either. After a number of missteps, I think Beauprez is still the favorite for the GOP nomination.But I still wonder if the Republican party can get its act together in time for the November race.
All this talk about the D’s and R’s, what about the I’s. These guys will fight it out, while that other candidate is everywhere.
Maybe you should look for waldo, he is there working Colorado.
come on, voyageur. get serious. “holtzman’s personal attacks”? is there something about pointing out bob b is a big spender and soft on immigration that constitutes a personal attack? no, because it’s fact. like you, he’s a squish. let me guess: you relied on your coworker, miles, for the scoop on club 20. no wonder you have no clue what happened there. politics isn’t even miles’ beat, yet you honestly think he wrote an accurate story about something political? the people who were slapping bob b on the back were his endorsers and county chairs. marshall was laughing his ass off when he saw the story. miles got suckered and doesn’t even know it. if you want to know what really happened, ask gary or ellen or steve–someone who was there and covers politics daily–or find their stories. they were much more accurate. it seems like each floor over there has gone to hell. at this rate, anschutz will examiner denver in a year. you guys need to get your shit together–quickly.
AP-Ipsos polling stats just released show a mere 36 percent of the public approves of Bush’s job performance, his lowest-ever rating.
As bad as Bush’s numbers are, those of Congress are worse. 30 percent of the public approves of the GOP-led Congress’ job performance. Republicans seem to be shouldering the blame.
These results should hurt Beauprez’s ratings and bolster Ritter’s ratings, in my opinion!
[…] One month ago, Ritter was slightly ahead of Beauprez (41% to 40%), the first clue in what is becoming a downward trend for the sole Democratic candidate. It was only in late February that Ritter led 40% to 30% over Beauprez. In the latest Rasmussen Reports survey of the race for Colorado Governor, Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter (D) and GOP Representative Bob Beauprez remain essentially tied. […]
[…] April 6, 2006 […]