Ballot Returns in Colorado Continue to Favor Democrats

17 Comments

by: Colorado Pols

Colorado Statesman reporter Ernest Luning has been diligently tracking ballot returns since ballots were first mailed last Monday. Today, Luning provides some important historical context:

Share of #copolitics statewide ballot return 14 days out:
Party 2012 2016
GOP 41.6% 32.9%
Dem 36.3% 41.1%
Unaf 22.1% 24.6%

— Ernest Lee Luning (@eluning) October 25, 2016

(BTW: If you’re interested in regular updates on this topic, we’d suggest you follow Luning on Twitter: @eluning)

We’ve been marveling at the rate of ballot returns for Democrats since numbers first started to emerge last week, and now even Republican strategists are getting nervous. From Jon Murray of the Denver Post:

“Although still a lot of time…CO Dems have never had early voting lead this large with 2 weeks to go.” https://t.co/iPjuOcyeE1 #copolitics

— Jon Murray (@JonMurray) October 25, 2016

Right-leaning political consulting/polling firm Magellan Strategies has been poring over ballot returns today, and they don’t have good news for Republicans:

As of this morning, the total number of ballots returned is 287,854, an increase of 128,959 from yesterday morning’s tally. The increase in ballots returned among Democrat voters since yesterday morning was 55,476, bringing their current total to 118,444. The Republican ballot return total increased by 39,779, bringing their total to 94,734. If you do the math, the Democrat advantage over Republicans in ballots returned is now 23,710, nearly triple since yesterdays lead.

Based on our 10 years of experience tracking early and absentee voting in Colorado, it’s very clear that a Democrat wave election is in the making. Although there is still a lot of time before Election Day, Colorado Democrats have never had an early voting lead this large with two weeks to go. [Pols emphasis] In the 2008 election two weeks prior to Election Day, Democrats held an early turnout lead of 2,987 votes. (184,386 Democrats had voted / 181,399 Republicans had voted). In the 2012 election with two weeks to go, Republicans held a lead of 11,798 votes. (72,585 Democrats had voted / 84, 383 Republicans had voted.)

We’ve been saying for awhile in this space that we can’t recall another time when Democrats were continually outpacing Republicans in early voting. There’s not really much of a question that Colorado Republicans, by and large, do not appear to be enthusiastic about casting ballots this year; the key question at this point is just how bad turnout might get in the next 14 days.

17 thoughts on “Ballot Returns in Colorado Continue to Favor Democrats”

Moderatus says:

October 25, 2016 at 2:45 pm

Does this include dead, illegal immigrant, and duplicate ballot voters? If not, congrats libs!

If so, do not be proud of your fraudulent victory.

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1. Pseudonymous says:
  
  October 25, 2016 at 2:52 pm
  
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2. davebarnes says:
  
  October 25, 2016 at 3:29 pm
  
  Well, Moddy, in my case, yes it does.
  
  Vote early and often I say.
  
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3. Old Time Dem says:
  
  October 25, 2016 at 3:32 pm
  
  Good point–has anyone checked on where and how many times John Caldara has voted?
  
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  1. BlueCat says:
    
    October 25, 2016 at 4:42 pm
    
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4. Colorado Pols says:
  
  October 25, 2016 at 3:57 pm
  
  You can deduct five voters — five votes, not five percent — from the total to account for fraud, just in case. Hell, go ahead and move all five into your favorite column. Feel better now?
  
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5. Duke Cox says:
  
  October 25, 2016 at 6:04 pm
  
  Oh, Moldy…You poor thing. This must really hurt….so sorry…
  
  heh,heh….
  
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davebarnes says:

October 25, 2016 at 3:36 pm

Someone does not understand how voting works in Colorado.

" Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 6m minutes ago Florida, USA

Get your ballots in Colorado – I will see you soon — and we will win!"

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Davie says:

October 25, 2016 at 3:42 pm

Looks the Trump campaign is undertaking a massive voter suppression effort — and it is succeeding — Republicans are staying home in droves

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1. Conserv. Head Banger says:
  
  October 25, 2016 at 4:48 pm
  
  Funny. I doubt many Democrats are voting for Trump. But I'll predict that a good number of Republicans; even conservatives; will vote for Hillary. The latter is how I voted.
  
  Wonder how Moderatus feels about Trump's glaring inability to unite the Colorado Republican party behind his candidacy?
  
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  1. BlueCat says:
    
    October 25, 2016 at 6:48 pm
    
    It's the liberal media's fault.
    
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JohnInDenver says:

October 25, 2016 at 5:36 pm

And the Libertarians are voting in bigger numbers, too. An 85% increase over 2014. That gets them up to nearly 1% of the votes returned.

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1. BlueCat says:
  
  October 25, 2016 at 6:52 pm
  
  But the Libertarian candidate for Prez has seen his poll numbers plummet from around 10% to 5 %… just a few points ahead of Jill Stein. This coincides with the growing gap between Trump and HRC. Looks like as people get serious about this election, fewer want to throw away their vote to make a point, protest or indulge in Bernie or Bust hissy fits.
  
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  1. FrankUnderwood says:
    
    October 25, 2016 at 7:43 pm
    
    Nader 2000 is still too fresh a memory….
    
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Genghis says:

October 26, 2016 at 11:47 am

This "Moderatus" person isn't especially bright, is s/he?

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1. Duke Cox says:
  
  October 26, 2016 at 12:22 pm
  
  you noticed….
  
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2. FrankUnderwood says:
  
  October 26, 2016 at 12:23 pm
  
  If you only knew the half of it.
  
  Moddy is a pre-programmed shill who more often than not misfires and ERROR404 pops up. S/he also has a set of default responses when all else fails.
  
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