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January 21, 2009 06:40 PM UTC

GOP: Bigger Fish To Fry Than Bennet in '10?

  • 36 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

That’s the possibility raised by Grand Junction Sentinel reporter Mike Saccone over the weekend:

The decision by four Republican senators in competitive states to retire could complicate the party’s hope that Michael Bennet, the man selected to replace Sen. Ken Salazar, D-Colo., will be an easy seat to pick off in 2010.

With at least four Republican-held seats open, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and its independent peers will focus on retaining the seats they have before investing in a pickup opportunity, according to Colorado political observers.

“To the extent that they’ve got other seats to defend and have to put their money there, that’s less they’ve got to put here,” said John Straayer, a political science professor at Colorado State University.

Further complicating the Republican Party’s situation are the location of their seats: Three of the four senators stepping down – George Voinovich, R-Ohio, Christopher Bond, R-Mo., and Mel Martinez, R-Fla. – represent battleground states.

The fourth retiree, Sen. Sam Brownback, R- Kan., comes from a red state, but difficulties for Republicans could arise in the event popular Democratic Gov. Kathleen Sebelius chooses to run for the seat.

Republicans also will have a series of seats to defend in states that voted for President-elect Barack Obama, including Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and North Carolina…

Our view: as the 2008 elections drew to a close, the GOP was forced to shift their dwindling resources into defending “safe” Senators–some of whom, like Elizabeth Dole, turned out not only unsafe but doomed to fail. In any case, it was the late-inning decision to shift resources that effectively pulled the plug on Colorado Senate candidate Bob Schaffer’s campaign a couple of weeks early.

It’s impossible to predict today what the electoral climate for Republicans will be in 2010, except to assume that it likely won’t be as negative. That said, the GOP has to look at a number of scenarios to determine where their best chance to pick up seats lies–and as long as they’re not fighting rearguard actions to defend incumbents and hold “safe” open seats next year as they were in 2008, they can’t help but look to Colorado’s not-really “incumbent” as a potential opportunity.

How realistic an opportunity, you ask? The answer to that question lies with newly-minted Senator Bennet.

Comments

36 thoughts on “GOP: Bigger Fish To Fry Than Bennet in ’10?

  1. that Romanoff is going to primary Bennett. Comes from a reliable source who actually spoke with Andrew about it…hard to say if that’s just his frustration coming through or if he will indeed follow through.  For now, though, it seems like Bennett has more to worry about from his own party than from the Rs.  

    1. on how things go for Bennet and Ritter this year.   Don’t think Romanoff will do anything destructive to his party’s chances in 2010 just to get revenge but if Ritter’s approval really bottoms out and Bennet doesn’t catch on, why shouldn’t Romanoff put his hat in the ring? He’s much better known,  better liked and better qualified than Bennet and he really got screwed after all he’s done for Ritter, including helping him, big time, get elected in the first place.

      1. The republicans will have to come up with TWO viable (not wacky neo-cons) candidates – one for Governor and one for Senator.

        Are there two?

        Suthers and Coffman?

        1. Coffman might be the logical choice for Governor had he stayed in the Secretary of State’s office instead of running for Congress.

          At this point I haven’t heard one name of a potential candidate who could win a primary, and then go on to win statewide.

          That’s about the only thing the Governor has going for him right now,

          1. I would bet numerous cases of fine Denver microbrewery on it. Suthers for Senate and then McInnis, Wiens, Holtzman, or Hillman would be the plausible non-nutcase gub candidates.

              1. certainly in the general election populace, would applaud him for that. I think that he would have a harder time than anyone in the primary, but he already has a cash advantage and a sizable following among western and moderate Republicans. If it becomes a crowded primary field, anything can happen (witness the 2006 CD-5 Republican primary).

                1. to see what happens in the GOP next year. I’m still not certain that they are going to come to the center.

                  The fact that they’re keeping Dick Wadhams speaks volumes on their willingness to become more moderate.

                  I think you’re right that someone like McInnis could appeal to the moderates that already exist within the party, but I still firmly believe that the fundamentalists outnumber the moderates–at least among likely GOP primary voters.

      2. on all counts…only thing is that Romanoff would have to start basically right now if he wants to position himself for a primary fight.  Bennet doesn’t have much time to prove himself before it’s too late.

        1. The party would not let that happen, and I don’t think Andrew Romanoff would be willing to run unless polling showed him way ahead.

          If there was a primary, there’s a good chance it could get nasty. If Bennet did end up coming out on top of Romanoff, then it might give strength to Suthers or whichever GOP candidate ends up winning their primary.

          I agree that we need to watch Bennet carefully, but so far he’s been doing everything right. I’d say that a real primary against Bennet would be a longshot at this point.

          1. I call bullshit as well. This is just another disgruntled Romanoff-worshiping poster pissed that the governor acted stupidly (which I don’t dispute). Fact is though, two stupids don’t make a right, and a primary to Bennet would be undoubtedly stupid (for lack of a better word).  

            1. It is Romanoff’s duty to challenge the Gov’s pick.  Let me be the first to nominate Romanoff for the position.

              What would we be as a Republic if we didn’t let the voters to decide who should represent us.  

              And, if Romanoff had been chosen I would hope that Bennet would challenge.

              Sure Ritter had a responsibility to fill the seat and he did so.  But, the voters ultimately should decide who should represent them.

                1. are both probably right.  The shame of it is that we wouldn’t be having this discussion if Romanoff had been the pick. He would have been much more widely accepted with at least some enthusiasm, even among those with another preference.  This potentially divisive situation and a whole lot of ill feeling could have been avoided. We also would have had a Senator who didn’t need to learn legislating from the ground up. Romanoff also fits the Obama vision of non-ideological legislators willing to get pragmatic and work out deals to a Tee. Still have no clue what Bennet’s positions are on anything. We’ll just have to hope for the best for 2010.

                    1. is not only premature, it’s ludicrous. There is no basis for the rumors mtbon-whoever is dealing, it’s just trying to sow seeds of discord that don’t exist outside gossip mills, not in the real world.

            2. I, for one, hope that Romanoff doesn’t primary Bennet unless he really does crash and burn in the next two years.  This just happened to be something I heard came straight from Romanoff.  

    2. First off, my bet is Romanoff will have a federal job within a month. And in a year he’s going to be getting that done and won’t want to walk away from it.

      Second, Bennet is it. Like or dislike the decision (I’m waiting to see), he’s now our Senator. And he clearly is competent at what we’ve seen so far. He will have the party lines up behind him.

        1. was getting at by using Obama’s middle name.  When Obama uses it he is simply choosing to use his full name, as so many Presidents have before him, because that’s who he is and he is rightly of proud of who he is.  

          You don’t seriously expect anyone with more brains than a piece of toast to buy the idea that the right meant nothing negative by using it.  Unless of course YOU don’t have more brains than a piece of toast.

  2. That means Betsy Markey is a total lock. Think about it, the Republicans have zero chance of taking back the House. But ’10 will decide if they retain filibuster capability in the Senate. If they don’t have bucks for a seat in a purple state where the incumbent has just 2 years, they aren’t going to have even $0.02 for CD-4.

    And I’d say that Betsy Markey’s seat is a bit tougher of a fight than Bennet’s Senate seat based on the ’08 results. IIRC Betsy’s margin was greater than Udalls.

    So there will be a bloody Republican primary for CD-4. And whoever wins will charge ahead with hope and energy. But they are going to face a very tough fight with virtually no outside help.

  3. If a tree stump like Wayne Allard can get elected to the Senate twice, Bennet should have little trouble winning re-election in 2010. He just needs to do a halfway decent job.

    1. I will say that the tree stump is not a fair analogy. He did take positions, often, that were helpful to all Coloradoans such as his work last year with USFS on forest health. But, I think what got him elected the last time and why he was so well respected was that he had sooo many town hall meetings and by and large he had very competent staff.

            1. It’s called re-election.

              Losers seldom run twice, but when they do, they almost always lose again. Tom just happened to lose by the exact same margin.

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