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May 27, 2016 07:36 AM UTC

Friday Open Thread

  • 41 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

“The great proof of madness is the disproportion of one’s designs to one’s means.”

–Napoleon Bonaparte

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41 thoughts on “Friday Open Thread”

  3. Looks like Bernie has been punked by Trump.  Bernie was telling his supporters that there will be a debate between him and Trump in a "large stadium in CA"!  (Wild cheers by Bernie fans.)  Today, however, the Trump campaign said that on a scale of 1 – 10, with 10 being a definite debate, they gave a score of zero. 

    Idealism (naivete?) bites the dust again.

    1. Seeing as Trump isn't even the only presidential candidate to renege on a deal to debate with Sanders in California, maybe Sanders and his folks are naive.

    2. My read on it is that Trump's advisers told him that it would boost Bernie and probably make Trump look like a bloviating ignoramus (I'm sure they said that in a nice way, though).

      Since Bernie is the stronger candidate against Trump, if Trump debates at all, he would really prefer to debate Hillary,  who will also make him look like a bloviating ignoramus.

      1. Trump obviously wants to build up bernie in hopes of luring his voters to trump in the fall.  But in a debate, Bernie would slaughter the bloviating ignoramus you accurately called him.  Then Trump would make personal attacks on bernie, killing his chances of luring bernie's supporters.  Just another Trump stunt to dominate one more news cycle.  (Note to blue cat.  See how I didn't rise to mj's bait about bernie being the stronger candidate.  I think we've rehashed that one enough!)

      2. Since Voyager appears to have now gone all squishy, allow me . . .

        My read on this is that both of them know that HRC is the Democratic candidate, and the odds-on favorite to become the next President.  Even the willfully ignorant can't ignore the math (. . . OK, they can ignore it, and it appears that they have chosen to — but their willful ignorance can't change it).  

        The Peach State (an outlier, and definitely not a bellwether — even if you can make yourself believe that particular polling) notwithstanding, Drumpf is (unfathomably) drumpf, and Sanders is in "hail Mary" mode and deep denial.  Two faces of Desperation by two desperate men — it's become sad — I guess, they have at least that in common.  

    3. What will The Drumpf do now?  Your move, Big guy…

      Tech Company: We Will Put Up $10 Million For Bernie-Trump Debate

      “Yesterday, Mr Trump asked for a $10 [million] donation to charity in order to accept Mr Sanders’ challenge to debate him,” Richie Hecker, chairman and CEO of Traction and Scale, told BuzzFeed News in a statement. “We are willing to offer that $10 [million] donation in return for the opportunity to host the debate.”

  4. Our brave, brave notorious draft dodger strikes again…because it's all about 'Freedumb'

    Hard rock legend Ted Nugent on Sunday delivered a profanity-laced speech urging gun-rights supporters to get behind Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, telling the National Rifle Association's annual convention that they must stop the Democrats this year.

    "Donald Trump is the [expletive] kicker," the rock guitarist/gun rights advocate said in a speech billed as "Ted Nugent: 2016 Election Do or Die for America and Freedom."

    1. On the other hand, Nugent still does a gonzo guitar. Do a Google for a 2009 live concert in Detroit featuring the original Amboy Dukes doing "Journey to the Center of the Mind." A real classic tune.

      2. He's a deplorable asshole so I'm not going to waste my Google time on the fool.  Is it appropriate to remind him that he promised to be 'dead or in jail within a year' if Obama was re-elected in 2012?  

    1. That is a truly terrifying image. The mask manufacturer just wants to make money and capitalize on a trendy image- but will Trump sue for infringement of intellectual property rights, i.e. his face? He says he wants to get tough with China on trade.

  6.  After a month of RCP average approval ratings consistently in the black despite being dragged down by outlier Economist polls, the latest Gallop and Rasmussen are both showing Obama in the black with 50 to 45 and 51 to 48 approval. This time in GW's last year he was polling far, far underwater with approval ranging in various polls from the 20s to no higher than mid-30s.  Looks like all the nasty attacks, the one thing that unites all components of the 21st century GOP have been backfiring. Republican majority congress continues at how low can you go approval rates with generic Dem approval up a couple of points over generic GOP approval.

    And BTW I'm getting my misspelled words underlined again. Joy. They're all things like "GW" and "outlier" which are actually OK but it's a step in the right direction.

    Heading into the weekend these are numbers that can't be giving the GOP much comfort.

  7. A free sugar high for M.J.

    I still regard the PPI poll as an outlier, but the New York Times says it is a direct translation from the Golden tablets that the Angel Moroni handed to Joseph Smith.   Take a special look at the registration numbers if you are hunting for reasons the Survey U.S.A.  poll with its 18 point Hillary edge may have miscalculated the probable voter turnouts.  As usual, the devil isn't in the numbers themselves but the assumptions that analysts use to weight their various subsets.   Have a great day and don't say I never did anything for you.smiley

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/27/us/politics/clinton-sanders-california-poll.html?_r=0

    http://capitolweekly.net/ca120-voter-surge-now-california/?version=meter+at+7&module=meter-Links&pgtype=article&contentId=&mediaId=&referrer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2016%2F05%2F27%2Fus%2Fpolitics%2Fclinton-sanders-california-poll.html%3F_r%3D0&priority=true&action=click&contentCollection=meter-links-click

    1. Thanks, V. But you really didn't do it for me – you did it because you actually do have some regard for the truth.

      So you may want to take another look at the Politifact piece – it wasn't just about Georgia, but cited Real Clear Politics polls, including national polls from earlier this year. All show Sanders beating Trump by 10-15 points.

      The RCP polls are all from this month. So when the polls say what you want them to say, they're the gold standard from Moroni, but when they say the opposite, they're stable muck? Is that how that works?

      1. Honestly, mj, anything projecting 6 months from now on an unvetted candidate is useless.   Do you really have so liitle regard for the mainstream of this party as to really believe we'd work our butt off for eight years, win the nomination, then turn tail and run because somebody waved a poll in our face?  

        One obvious example– a Kentucky poll showed 20 pct would not vote for a woman for "commander in chief."  Bad news for Hillary?   Well, the same poll showed 50 pct would not vote for an atheist! — which most people don't know Bernie is.   Do you  think Trump would be shy about bring up that fact.   Another finding said 50 pct wouldn't vote for a socialist.

        BTW, there is another survey USA poll on 538 — again showing Hillary leading by 18 points in California.   But as far as winning the nomination goes, that will be decided when the polls close in New Jersey, hours before they close in California:

        http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-will-likely-clinch-the-democratic-nomination-in-new-jersey/

         

        1. You'll never convince her even though you're right.  How about The Donald's latest excuse for not accepting Bernie's "yes" to a debate. You'd think he had no idea when he made the offer that HRC is going to be the nominee. But of course only because it was stolen (by all those duly elected pledged delegates and against the will of the two and half million more people who voted for her) something he also noticed only after he offered to debate Bernie.

          "Based on the fact that the Democratic nominating process is totally rigged and Crooked Hillary Clinton and Deborah Wasserman Schultz will not allow Bernie Sanders to win, and now that I am the presumptive Republican nominee, it seems inappropriate that I would debate the second place finisher," Trump said in a statement.

          So relax,V. The Dem side circus will be over soon. It will be on to the general circus and MJ will have to stop pulling your chain.

          1. MJ has not been pulling my chain, BC.   We both gave an interest in how these polls work, which we discussed in depth when the poll showing HRC up by 15 pts in Oregon came out.   Of course, given dueling banjos like PPI showing Hillary up by two in ca and Survey USA showing HRC up by 18, she follows her heart.  After all these years I think I'm better at separating my interpretations from my hopes, But she is an honest, if passionate advocate and I respect her greatly.

            1. Thanks! I actually am interested in the truth, too, rather than chain-jerking. At least, right at the moment.  When I poke somebody or jerk their chain, I usually put in a winky face. winkGiven lack of nonverbals on here, it's the best I can do.

              I know that you are also interested in the truth even when it's uncomfortable, BC, and I do respect this. Our interpretations of "the truth" differ, obviously. The websites and reporters and media and bloggers and pollsters we believe in differ.

              The California portion of the Dem circus will be over in about 10 days, as will the Virgin Islands, Montana, New Jersey, and the Dakotas. Then we will all know where we stand going into the convention.

              So at least another couple of months until July 25 in Philly. Hang in there! I remain hopeful that the outcome will be healthy for the Democratic party and the country.

              1. Thanks MJ, but there is a difference between "the truth", and  simple objective reality. I would never claim to know the "truth". That's more of a spiritual exercise.

                I wouldn't characterize my attitude toward various polls as a matter of belief. I have found poll averages, especially once you throw out the outliers on both sides, to be generally pretty predictive. I've also found that when a candidate I'm rooting for keeps getting close to but not surpassing the candidate I oppose by more than a point or a day at a time, my candidate almost always loses, that even small but persistent leads or deficits in a variety of polls do tend to hold up.  

                I have little confidence in opinion pieces from strongly partisan sources, websites, blogs because, well, they're strongly partisan and look on the sunny side for their own team. I do respect those that provide verifiable accurate facts.

                When I say that polling on head to heads for the general or approval ratings at a given point aren't very predictive, I don't mean only polls showing results I don't like. I mean all of them.

                Maybe it's a matter of passion. I could never be as passionate about any politician as you are about Bernie Sanders or V is about HRC. I simply can't understand or identify with that level of "belief" in any politician. They're politicians. 

                I just try to weigh it all and support the ones who suit me better than the other choices available. I don't expect any of them to be heroes that fill me with passion. I also don't feel the need to believe that my horse is going to win based on faith when inconvenient facts, math, etc. tell me it's not to be. 

  8. Our Benevolent Overlords here should appreciate the number crunching:

    Neoliberal Democrats in New Jersey just passed a $15 an hour minimum wage through the state assembly:

    The Assembly on Thursday passed a bill to give minimum wage workers in New Jersey a nearly 80 percent bump in their pay that Gov. Chris Christie is all but certain to strike down.

    For the Democratic leaders in the Senate and Assembly, the veto is not so much a threat as it is a procedural step. They've said they plan to take the wage hike to the voters through a constitutional referendum, bypassing the Republican governor if he intervenes.

    The Senate still has to pass the bill, which would increase New Jersey's $8.38 minimum wage to $15, and to what its sponsors say is a more livable wage in a high-cost state where the average two-bedroom apartment costs more than $1,300 a month.

    Last month, both New York and California passed $15 an hour minimum wage bills, which were signed into law by their Democratic governors. New York Democrats further appeased their 1% masters by throwing in 12 weeks of paid family leave.

    Dropping the snark (about referring to NJ leges as "neoliberal", which the minimum wage bill is decidedly not.-ed.), it is extremely important that we all recognize the balance of power in the Democratic Party has shifted during the second term of Obama's presidency.  It started around the time that Larry Summers was defeated for Federal Reserve Chair, carried over into the successful effort to reform the filibuster (which literally started here on Daily Kos), then on to Net Neutrality, securing the Iran peace deal, the recent ruling to expand overtime to 12,000,000 workers, the defeat of Keystone XL, the $15 minimum wage, and so many more things.

    Progressive advocacy runs the party now. Roughly 3.3 million people have donated to either Sanders (2.2 million) or Clinton (1.1 million) at this point–roughly one of out of every seven people who have voted. In 2008, we were nowhere near those totals–even Obama didn't have that ratio on his own.

    The rank and file of the party are now majority liberal. In 2014, the majority of people who voted for Democrats for House were self-identified liberals. In the 2016 presidential primaries, over 60% of voters have been self-identified liberals–up from 46% in 2008.

    Liberals lost in the Democratic Party for a long time. It is hard to let go of old grudges, and difficult to recognize new trends. But this is your Democratic Party establishment now–it is passing $15 minimum wage laws, and even Hillary Clinton says she would sign into law.

    Bennet will most likely have chills from those numbers and not see them, nor act on them, for what they are. By my account he has about 7 more months in this job if he continues to ignore the popular, Progressive, Liberal members of the Democratic Party base that are once again revitalized.

    They aren't just looking to refi their student loans. And whatever his banker friends told him about this being the magic cure to his political and economic concerns, they lied to him..

      1. Seriously doubt you'll see any money from the Zappster. He's all talk and no action. Besides, if not Bennet, then who is his choice? Blaha? Glenn?   

    1. I actually proposed Tad Devine as a unity chairman after the convention, BC.   My ideal is the late Ray Bliss of Ohio, who was an organization genius wholly devoted to the Republican Party.   I don't want them having offices of their own.   Give the devil his due, Reince Priebus has worked hard and fairly and has miraculously united 90 pct of the GOP behind a psychotic con man.  I think Devine would reassure the Bernistas while working his heart out for HRC and the whole ticket.   I personally have no problem with DWS, but if replacing her helps units the party, do it!

    2. Happy early birthday, V. You probably had the same dilemma as my father, who was born on Armistice day (Nov 11). The story went that it was a real disappointment for him to learn that the parades were not in his honor.

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