Peter Schiff is the president of Euro Pacific Capital. He is also a frequent guest business news shows as a commentator. Here he is in 2006, 2007 and early 2008 predicting exactly what was going to happen in the economy. It’s long, but it’s worth every second.
I don’t know what’s scarier–how right he was, or how sure the people who disagreed with him were about their opinions. It’s amazing how incredulous they are, and how disastrously wrong they were.
h/t to Jay Marvin.
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Laughing. Christ. What’s really odd, when you hear it all at once, it still sounds far fetched. Wow, just wow.
Where is Ben Stein?
Not a lot before everyone else.
You miss out on a lot on gains if you anticipate the turn too quickly. Though investing isn’t gambling, it does share some characteristics, one of which is you “play the man not the cards”. In this case “the man” is general sentiment. If you looked at the housing market in 2004 and said “this is crazy” and got out you would have missed out on 2 1/2 years of good returns.
BTW did you note one of those poo-pooing Schiff was Jared Polis advisor, Art Laffer?
that’s interesting. Did you know Schiff was one of Ron Paul’s economic advisers?
You’re right about what you said from the stand-point of an individual investor–which admittedly is the originally intended audience.
I just can’t believe how prescient Schiff is.
the talking heads at Fox laugh at Schiff like he’s some sort of nutcase and then go on to tell investors that Merrill and Sachs are good buys – get in today before its too late !
Really shows who the hell knows what they are talking about, and the icing on the cake is that Laffer and Stein both have backgrounds in Republican administrations.
I guess bad news is bad entertainment, so should we just tell everyone everything is going to be alright ? Bob Marley could’ve told me that.
Incredible.
As an investor (even an institutional one) you onl care about being in front of the herd.
As a regulator you have to care about systemic problems that may not emerge for years.
Its the reason why laissez-faire reugulaion of markets doesn’t work. Indiviual actors (includes institutions) may act “rationally”, but that doesn’t mean the system acts rationally. Begger thy neighbor is a “rational” strategy, but it is lousy for the long term health of a country.
All that said, equity investors tend to be overly optimistic, that’s why if you want a dose of realism always talk to a guy who cut his teeth in the credit markets (bank, bond or otherwise). We always had to be a bit pessimistic because our risk asymetry was the opposite of the equity guys.
sorry for all the typos.