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November 06, 2008 02:49 AM UTC

No Bernie? Now What?

  • 56 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Democratic State Rep. Bernie Buescher was defeated in his bid for re-election, which throws the leadership election into a dizzy for the donkeys. Buescher was all but a shoo-in to be elected as the next Speaker of the House, so now what?

Rep. Kathleen Curry has thrown her hat into the ring, but whether or not she has the votes is hard to say. Anne McGihon had hired a “manager” months ago in an effort to campaign for the post, but McGihon has one big problem – nobody likes her.

Terrence Carroll is not thought to be interested in the role, so the guess here is that many Democrats try to convince Rep. Jack Pommer to seek the job. Pommer is a popular figure who, if he campaigned for it, could probably be elected Speaker.

The leadership void in the House created by the term-limited departures of Andrew Romanoff and Alice Madden may not be filled very easily.

(Also check out Go Blue’s diary for a poll).

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56 thoughts on “No Bernie? Now What?”

    1. Is more comfortable with being House Majority Leader, prestigious enough in itself, where he can effectively become both a party and a legislative leader.

      I agree with Pols. With support from Carroll and Kerr, Pommer could have the speaker’s seat.

  3. and Weissmann will be Majority Leader.

    McGihon doesn’t stand a chance.  Everyone knows that she undercut Bernie in Grand Junction by telling the Sentinel that Bernie would not be the Speaker, that she had the votes.  This hurt Bernie in his race – enough to cause him to lose?  Who knows, but it certainly didn’t help.

    It is also fairly well known around the Capitol that she was having conversations with key Republicans in the House about cutting a deal with them if they would vote for her for Speaker.  That is why she told the Sentinel that she had the votes.  She didn’t need all the Ds, only a few, plus the Rs,.

    2. not on your part, on McGihon’s. Only in a 34-d, 33 R House could that have worked because absolutely no real Democrat would support such a betrayal. AND if she had pulled it off, I would have personally fanned the flames of a recall in her House seat.

    3. because Anne McGihon and I are partners in our law firm, so I can’t be neutral in handicapping the race or discussing it, and because what I do know is not always public.

      But, I will step in to say that I have personal knowledge that the allegation about her having conversations with the Republicans about support in a speakership race is entirely false.  It didn’t happen.  It was made up out of whole cloth.  

      Also, I doubt that a single comment from months ago in the Grand Junction Sentinel made or broke Bernie, who himself has disavowed any effort the Monday morning quarterback the race.  When the margin between the candidates is as small as it was in that race, a million different factors become relevant.  

      Bernie had the most heavily Republican district of any incumbent Democrat in Colorado, and made clear long ago that it was a close race.  As a result, the GOP targeted immense efforts to regaining this seat.  One could argue equally plausibly that the impact of McCain showing up in the county on election day (just a stone’s throw from his old offices on Horizon Drive), or the influx of oil industry workers into HD 55 who are not familiar with his moderate history, was decisive.  “Why?” in this context is a question that has no meaningful answer.

      It is clear that no one else could have come even close in that district, and I wouldn’t rule out some important political role for Bernie somewhere, at some point in the future.  

      1. anhd I agree that one motor-mouth McGihon Moment would hardly have been decisive. I think its worth noting that both Palin and McCain visited there and that had to give the base a jolt. That, to me, is the straw that broke the camel’s back. I’d welcome Bernie in any role from OSPB to economic development. , maybe as hed of department of local affairs.  Hell, if I had the budget, I’d hire him as an editorial writer atThe Post, it pays a lot better than being a legislator!

          1. I didn’t know Bernie was open to working in Panama or Manila for MediaNews.

            On Trans, maybe Bernie could run Ritter’s license fee increase for transportation $s or new toll road program.  Both concepts have such strong Dem support. 😉

    4.    I recall back when Doug Dean was in line to become speaker, some Dems and some RINOs were talking about a similar type of cross-party coalition to stop Dean.  Nothing came of it.

        I don’t know if McGihon was really trying something like, or bad-mouthing Bernie in his hometown, but both sound like things she might do.

        Here’s hoping Ritter finds an appropriate cabinet position for Buescher.

  4. The House reorg is to take place Thursday morning.  However, I have heard that some Arapahoe house races may still be undecided.

    Apparently there are 15,000 mail ballots that were received by the clerk in time but somehow didn’t get counted.  They have to count them now.  And since they don’t know from which district any of the ballots may be from (they could be from anywhere and everywhere in the county) they could theoretically have an influence on any race that has a margin of less than 15,000.

    1. Statistically, 15,000 missing mail ballots, because they can come from anywhere, are very unlikely to differ much from other mail-in ballots, however.

      This is very close to a random sample of mail-in ballots, and if it was a truly random sample, one would expect it to be within +/- 0.8 percentage points of the overall mail-in ballot percentages about 95% of the time.

      So, it is statistically quite unlikely that any house district race is going to flip as a result, despite the large number of ballots involved.

      The impact is potentially much more significant statewide, where Arapahoe County differs materially from the overall statewide results.  But, the only statewide race which would plausibly be flipped is the Amendment 46 race.  Even Amendment 54 is close enough to be flipped by 15,000 votes that are no where close to unanimous.

      1. no D win that could be flipped but an R win that could lead to another D in the House.

        I appreciate ohwilleke’s statistcal analysis, but the reality is that if some of those ballots all came from one House district it could have an impact.  The point is, we simply don’t know at this juncture.

  5. if I picked the speaker, I’d go with Claire Levy.  I like that woman’s fairness and the way she handles tough ethical issues.  

    She’d be fair and a credit to the party.

    Of course, she’s a Boulder Liberal and we all know that’s the kiss of death;-)

    1. Institutions need a collective memory and experts.  We can’t get them with term limits.  Good people are pushed out the door just as they become effective.  

      We also now see the politicians moving from state house to state senate to elected state office to federal office where they are finally safe from TL.  (Above example is fictional but based on general patterns.)

      1. have always been about getting someone from a district you don’t live in out of the way. If people really believed in them across the board they’d exercise that desire at the ballot box. Lord knows I would have supported them for the US Senate just to get rid of Jesse Helms…

    2. We regret losing people like JFG and Romanoff, but we also get rid of a lot of nimrods who otherwise would just set up camp and do nothing for 20 years.

      Plus it’s like the army’s up or out where we do keep training and improving a lot of new politicians. Because of that, we have a very deep bench in this state.

  7. Thursday, Terrence Carroll will be elected Speaker and Paul Weissmann will be Majority Leader.

    And by the way, Paul will be a great Majority Leader.

    President Elect of the US: An African American, elected in part because of what Colorado did.

    President of the Colorado Senate: An African American.

    Speaker of the Colorado House: An African American.

    It is a thing of beauty.

    1. Bernie Buescher is one of the best. I have such respect and admiration or him. I will always remember the first time we met at the Capital. He supported me throughout my campaigns and was a most honorable colleague. The legislature has lost a champion…I hope it will be Gov. Ritter’s gain. God bless you Bernie!

  9. McGihon, Curry AND Carroll have been on the phone calling House members today. It may be a long meeting tomorrow morning. Buescher’s loss was not expected. But, in that House district, the smart money new it was a toss up. Pommer was not seeking the House Speaker seat today. At this point it is still not known who will be Speaker. However, Paul Weissman will be House Majority leader. He’s going to feed everyone breakfast at 9am and make sure he has the votes and ensure nothing has changed since the last head count.

      1. The intense pressure of being Speaker does not seem well-suited for her.  She is great but I think she lacks the thick skin and decisive nature required for this post. She is also a mother of young children and has business obligations back in her district, would be hard for her to be in Denver all year.

        1. she doesn’t need to be in Denver all year. I want someone who’s not from Denver. Someone who’s more in touch will rural Colorado. Her children are old enough (I believe in High School?) to get by without her. And her husband has been managing their ranch just fine while she’s in session each year.

  10. it will be t carroll and weissman.  and agree with angie paccione.  God bless  you Bernie, you are a true gentleman who will be oh so missed.  

    2. Glad to know we finally agree on something!

      If you’re going to stay in the public light, Im guessing by pushing your light rail through the mountains idea, I truly hope you reach to more people who have been working on a transportation solution for years. I agree it needs to happen, but I don’t agree with how you intend to pay for it.

      Best of luck,

      1. Thank you for the kind words Go Blue

        I’m very interested in getting Monorail Construction on a statewide ballot — the plan would be light rail from Fort Collins to Pueblo and high speed monorail from DIA to Eagle

        I’m in touch with some good folks over it and if the right coalition can be built, I’ll pursue it —- Harry Dale, of the Rocky Mountain Rail Authority, in particular, is a close friend who knows more about this than anyone else, so his thoughts will be most important

        As far as running again, hang on to your popcorn — while I’m bummed out not to be in our good State House, I am excited about the next few years as I’ll continue my filmmaking and, hopefully, continue to garner some good achievements in that — I will run for some kind of position again, but not likely for another 6 or 7 years at least

        peace and love all – ALI

        1. is a foolish idea.   I suspect you meant to say commuter rail and if you don’t know the difference, you’re hardly in a position to advocate either.

          1. There is a specific proposal for a monorail up i-70, running on a modified mag-lev that doesn’t actually levitate but does reduce rolling resistance and powered by the seraphim engine developed by sandia national laboratory. It would hang on J-frames above the existing right of way, eliminating the need to blast away more mountains for right of way.

            But he is confusing commuter rail, like that planned for Denver-Boulder-Longmont, with light rail like the SE and SW lines. The latter work best on short trips between many stops, because they accelerate swiftly. The heavier commuter rail cars, either electrified or diesel multiple units, are better suited to the runs like Fort Collins to Pueblo because they are more luxurious and their slower acceleration doesn’t matter because they don’t have so many short trips between multiple stops like light rail.

  12. Carroll won the race for Speaker-elect in a runoff against McGihon. several observers commented that Curry cost herself votes when she said she would do her best as speaker but that her family and ranch were her top priority.

    Weissman was elected by acclimation as House Majority Leader; Andy Kerr beat Nancy Todd for assistant majority leader.

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