U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Jena Griswold
60%
60%
40%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Alexis King
(D) Brian Mason
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) A. Gonzalez
(D) George Stern
(R) Sheri Davis
50%↑
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%
30%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
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90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Joe Salazar
50%
40%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
November 02, 2008 08:06 PM UTC
36 Comments
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Musgrave just has too much working against her this year.
There’s a perfect electoral storm that’s about to capsize the good ship Musty-pop.
That unfortunately adds up to 101 percent of the electorate. Even Eric Eidness couldn’t make that happen.
… as in as in Amendment 47 😉
Acorn might make it happen though 😉
That or you just a pathetic liar.
ACORN’s out there in Greeley and Brush in full force. LOL
Even though the polls show a bigger margin for Markey, I suspect it will be close. And while Obama will do better in C.D. 4 than any Dem in recent history, he still won’t carry it. But enough people will ticket split to retire Mad Cow.
Even 3 months ago, I would have said Musgrave but I really think Musgrave has been softened up so many times in each of her re-election bids that none of her usual antics are working for her. Instead, they are backfiring and turning off voters. Obama is also a major factor here in getting out the Dem vote.
I think people want something new and something less negative, less angry. They want someone that represents them, not a uber conservative minority. Earlier this year, I think Musgrave was doing an excellent job of remaking herself. In fact, she started almost immediately after the 2006 election and if she had stayed with that, I think she would be polling better than she is. But Marilyn will always be Marilyn and she will always revert to going negative, to the point of lying. She can’t help it. It’s who she is.
This time, though, voters know it.
I think it will be Markey by 3 to 5 points.
obama inspired registration and GOTV will carry Markey in by a nose. I think it may be closer than some think because she has run an insipid campaign that consists of accusing Musgrave of accepting a pay increase. The horror, the horror.
And Markey’s voice on TV sounds like Shirley Temple. She’s the weakest of the three Ds Musgrave has faced, but this year, the Dems won’t be denied. Obama and a strong Democratic statewide effort combined with a Republican party that is close to disintegration in this state. Plus, Middle’s right, Musgrave went overboasrd with the negative attacks (the prison thing was a bit much.)
That Obama is going to win CD-4?
You’ve been spending too much time in Denver.
When is the last time your paper picked a winner in that district?
Perhaps endorsing Musgrave was good for Markey given how that has been the kiss of death for previous candidates up there!
but her voice is a real issue for her–it’s a turnoff to listen to. That said, I think she has worked hard in the last year to bring her speaking skills up and she is fantastic one on one. You can’t really do much about what God gives you, you know?
On another point, I both agree and disagree with you. There were other candidates in the past that were stronger but…Markey has run an excellent campaign, damn near flawless. She has been well organized, well funded, has no skeletons in her closet and she has answered Musgrave’s crap immediately, instead of letting it simmer until voters started to question the truth of the rumor.
I don’t know if Obama is going to win CD4. I think he’s going to win Larimer County and people forget that a good portion of my county is red (think House District 49 and 51.) Larimer County is a whole lot more than just Fort Collins but I’m seeing an organizational level for Obama in Estes Park that blows my mind.
Obama might win CD4 if Weld County and Morgan turn out for him and counter the numbers on the Eastern Plains. We have part of Boulder County in there, too, but it’s also the reddest portion of Boulder County–although it did go for Paccione in 2006 and Stan in 2004 (I think.)
That stupid “change” ad. You know the one where she goes:
“Because we could use a little change”
then the camera pans out to the coins
“OK, a LOT of change”
Stupid.
He’s already helped by registering new voters, including out of state college students who are voting here because Colorado is “in play” and by the fine early vote, mail vote, GOTV effort. These folks can put Markey over the top because MM has always underperformed, she just snuck in on the base of a solid Republican edge.
I also agree that the Markey campaign is the best that MM has faced. I think the candidates, particularly Matsunaka, were stronger before, with solid legislative records that Markey lacks. But her very lack of a record and her business background have made it hard to accuse her of voting 193 times to raise taxes, etc.
Of course, they hit her with the woman-owned thing and, sure, that hurt. But she fired back. In a normal year, MM would pull through. This ain’t no normal year.
So, I agree with you about the campaign being well suited to this year and she should squeak in 51-49 (minues the scattered third party types.
I agree 100% with your comment.
My prediction, Markey by ~0.5%.
An influx of mail-in ballots is going to make the counting on this race a drawn out affair.
I thought they could count as they came in. That would mean that half are already done.
Sometimes they wait to count them until they decide a race is really close.
been cast. So counted. There won’t be any more ballots received on Tuesday than any other year, probably less.
http://www.elections.colorado….
As of 4:19am Friday:
1.628 million mail-in ballots sent
0.998 million mail-in ballots received
= up to ~630,000 mail in ballots to receive on Friday, Monday and Tuesday.
So it isn’t a majority, but my prediction is also that the race will be close enough that rounding up the stragglers amongst mail-in ballots in various counties in 4th CD will be important.
1.113 million mail-in ballots received as of Friday night.
ALL ballots are counted. Even in uncontested races. It is the only way to give the voter credit for voting.
Mail and early ballots can be counted as they arrive starting on Oct. 25th, but they cannot be totalled (ie – no results known) until 7pm on election day.
Provisional ballots are ALL counted as long as they are from valid voters who have not already voted some other way. They have to be counted within the 10 day period after the election.
From my experience canvassing in Arapahoe County yesterday, many still on my list as not having voted yet had just mailed or hand delivered Friday or were planning to Monday. This was targeting Dems, notorious at procrastinating. It takes a bit to process mail-ins and there have been recent calls for more workers. Also a boatload of very late received ballots still to come in, especially in Denver. This election day will still be a challenge.
Denver will be running on a 24-hour processing schedule starting Monday morning in order to get the mail ballots counted in a reasonable time.
The good news is as of this morning 63% of the county had already voted. So we should be okay to report a very large portion of our vote in time for the 10:00 news on election night.
I am not expecting any races in Denver to be close enough that we have to bite our fingernails waiting for the provisionals to be counted. Unless of course there is a statewide issue that is close (maybe 46?)
Markey will pull this one out, but it will be a squeaker.
The mail-in ballot processing could take significant time depending on when they start counting them. If they run them through as they get them, or start processing them say Tusday beginning at 12:01am, it might not take forever; if they don’t run them through until Tuesday evening, it could be a very long night.
Musgrave really undermined her own campaign. She was portraying herself as a “western” representative working in a bipartisan matter on the issues important to her district until the polls showed her behind and spazzed out like John McCain and began lying about her opponent. Everything she had worked for during the last two years in Congress has been completely shattered by her campaign’s abuse of the voters trust.
I’ve lived in this district for over 20 years, and I have been impressed by the quality of candidates that the democrats have run. Markey’s is the best funded, best prepared, and best supported (by independent organizations) and the candidate herself has stayed on message throughout. She was the County Chair in Larimer County who injected some life into a lazy and incompetent county organization. This candidacy has been nurtured by Ken Salazar and Markey has been prepared to run like no other candidate in the district’s history.
Musgrave, as others have correctly noted, has veered quite a bit from what appeared to be her strategy. The campaign appears to be in a state of panic. But this doesn’t predict an electoral loss. Right now it a different campaign for the blockheads who haven’t been paying attention. The district has seen (so far) little Dem advantage in mail balloting. I don’t know how many are still outstanding at this point (Sunday morning), but significant numbers of rural voters who submit theirs late in the campaign could be a factor. The cultural divide between the rural and the urbanized areas and the politics of resentment among rural Republicans has been a big part of this district. These folks don’t write letters to the editor or have a lot of political blogs. (They are not the exhibitionists that bloggers are.) I don’t get a sense of what the ‘native,’ ‘rural,’ ‘Republican,’ parts of the county are thinking… and I’d be very interested to hear from someone in Morgan, Prowers, Baca, Lincoln, and Phillips Counties. Even though better-known Weld and Larimer counties make up 85% or so of the district population, the ‘other’ less urbanized counties are important and I don’t get the idea that Markey has penetrated these areas.
Were I a rancher in Lincoln County, I don’t know that I’d be attracted to Markey, even if I were put off by Musgrave’s paranoid issues with gay marriage, sex education, creeping ‘thems,’ etc.) Markey in the first debate made no mention of agriculture save for wind power. [Marilyn is well enough known there that she doesn’t need to mention ag or gay marriage.] It would take a miracle to get some of these folks to fill in the circle for a Democrat… maybe that miracle is happening, but whether it’s a big enough one remains to be seen.
If it’s Markey, I would expect a squeaker.
Markey by 6. 51-45.
I’ll be a happy man when that homophobe is out of office.
And with that Republicans will start to realize how impossible it will be to take this seat from Markey. Is Musgrave even campaigning anymore?
I’m thinking 51-47 or so, along those lines. I really have no idea though. As I’ve commented elsewhere, there haven’t been any meaningful public polls for this race since late freakin’ August. That just blows me away, that such a high-profile race would go unmeasured like this. Not even a local pollster made an effort! It’s like nobody really wants to know until election day.
Anyway, it’s a Dem-wave election, and Musgrave has been as weak as she has ever been, especially for the generally R-lean of her district. But that lean is marginal. I just have no idea how much resonance Markey has had on the plains – she likely won’t ‘win’ out there, but she doesn’t have to. She just has to do a little better than her challenger predecessors. The Front Range will take care of the rest, and that just seems to be falling into place this year.
Did anybody read the LATEST issue of Rolling Stone with Barack on the cover? Dated October 30, 2008.
There was an article called “Death of a Red State” about our own beloved Colorado. Much of the focus was on CO-04 and how Musgrave is running on hate and how the Dems have changed into a less ideological and more diverse group and talked about the possibility of Musgrave losing.
Here’s the link: http://www.rollingstone.com/po…
She continues to run that idiotic “lie detector” ad. It reminds me of Dole’s “godless” ad: just as obviously fake, below the belt, desperate and pathetic.
Markey by 6.
The Musty witch.
My two cents. Going to be very close – we are talking about throwing out an incumbent in what has been a solid red district for some time.
Total squeaker, and I’m not talking about Markey’s voice either.