U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Jena Griswold
60%
60%
40%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Alexis King
(D) Brian Mason
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) A. Gonzalez
(D) George Stern
(R) Sheri Davis
50%↑
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%
30%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Joe Salazar
50%
40%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
November 02, 2008 08:28 AM UTC
35 Comments
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111…
I’m a little surprised and dismayed by that. It indicates to me that, as usual, a lot of 18-29 year-olds are all talk and no action.
Some of the disparity in the numbers appears to come from lack of McCain contacts to the younger voter. Obama appears to be contacting them at a reasonably high level of contact (31%, compared to the high thirties for most other age groups), while McCain’s contact rate is only 16% for young voters.
I wonder what the contact rate is for battleground states like Colorado…
We’ll see if they end up equaling votes. I remain skeptical.
The youth vote proved notoriously elusive in 2000 and 2004; if it turns out this year, it will be groundwork and our choice of candidate that gets them to the polls.
It was just all the old people who fucked it up.
I can see the “youth” vote now breaking into two separate demographic groups. Defining the youth vote as people between 18 and 29 (or even to 35). The group between 18 and 25 are living under the economic conditions they did not vote for; this includes the large numbers who could have voted in 2004 but did not. Those over 25 include a percentage who did vote in 2000 and 2004, and are now reevaluating what has happened since then.
The Republicans are running a race using the techniques created and perfected since Reagan. Without realizing the new dynamics of 2008. One of the side effects is McCain and Palin appearing on SNL; to be mocked. Perhaps they and their handlers think it is showing how in touch with America they are. It is the same as when Nixon appeared on Laugh In; to be mocked. He had no clue what happening then as they are repeating the same clueless appearances now.
I am hearing and reading more about how the Republicans have not even realized the significance of this election. The youth, 18-35, are voting strong for Obama, over 60% this election . This generation now has the built in preference for Democrats and is going to be 40 years of voters for Progressive and Democratic Party candidates.
And, if there had been a draft at anytime during the last 8 years this would have happened a lot earlier than this year.
we would never had gotten Reagan or either of the Bushes.
Oh wait…
People do become more conservative as they get older, mainly because once they actually have lots of money, everything else becomes much less important.
Hippies? Again, you prove the point of the Republicans losing generations. Hippies were long gone by the time of the Reagan Carter campaign. Beatnics were a group before Hippies were a group that were around when Reagan was a Democrat.
Republicans, just by refusing to accept the world changes and advances do not see the changes. This is particularly true for social change and technological change.
My point was that the most left-wing generation America had last century were the people who were the baby boomers in the late 1960s. By the 1980s, the exact same people had become extremely conservative. And the main reason Obama has a chance at winning is that the baby boomers are finally losing influence.
So called ‘Hippies” could not vote in the sixties until they were 21. Your so-called Hippies rioted in the streets, starting gigiantic anti-draft movements….and won the vote for 18 year olds…..who voted overwhelmingly for Nixon in 1972 because he had already gotten rid of the draft….
Know your history, buddy….because if McCain wins…it will be boots on the ground all’around….and kids will vote in 2012….
The most important thing – your kids. And money can cause as many problems as it solves there.
Hippies were never a significant voting power. That is another creation of Republican fear factor.
In the 1950s interracial marriage was radical or liberal. Very few conservatives make that an issue today or in the 1980s. (Though my Michigan born grandmother on my father’s side took me aside in about 1985 when she saw an interracial couple and told me never to date a black girl.)
While the pendulum swung back in the 1980s, it did not go all the way back. And even though Reagan’s ‘welfare queens’ was interpreted as a wink and a nod to racists and had the open text to any conservative about dismantling the social welfare projects of the great society and the new deal, did he actually have the support to go all the way on that? Or was there just a modest rollback?
What conservatives are losing is not this generation forever, but some of the conservative issues. By 2020 the issue of gay marriage will be all but buried. They may also be losing universal health care. Maybe.
The country would have been destroyed much earlier than Bush almost did.
Reagan helped create Osama bin Laden, and if 9/11 had happened on his watch, he would have immediately blamed Russia and killed us all.
What a dick he was.
There are reasons that Reagan had a Democratic HoR to deal with despite his popularity. It was not all just luck and happenstance, though some of it was.
Reagan got stuck with a Democratic Congress because first he was unlucky in 1982 and the economy went to shit adding a lot of seats of a narrow Democratic House majority. Then the people were not as inclined to give the Republicans a majority due to the issues at the time, even though they reelected Reagan in a landslide, one of the biggest in Presidential history. Democrats picked up three seats in the Senate in 1984 and lost only one, a net of two. And the party only lost 16 seats in the House, keeping 253. Then in 1986 the Democrats got a modest five new seats in the house and eight in the Senate, giving them control of both houses for the first time since 1980.
Things did swing to the right in the 1980s and 1990s. But not as far or fast as just looking at who was president might indicate. Just as right now two good cycles for Democrats does not mean a radical swing to the left.
even though he was clearly in the early stages of dementia before his first term was over, we elected him AGAIN. Only in America is being not very bright or knowledgeable or being actually impaired a plus with a considerable segment of the voting public. I guess if you liked Reagan and Bush II you LOVE Palin.
I can assure you that my view of history and the US has only become more radicalized with time and study, and stronger in my commitment to non-violence, environmentalism, and social justice. That viewpoint is tempered by age and experience and humility at our collective human frailty. I may be just one more grain of sand on the beach, but I didn’t give up.
The youth vote did turn out unusually well in 2004. It’s just that the Republican base did too. If the youth vote turns out as well this year as in 2004, that’s a good turn out. If they do better, it’s an excellent turn out.
there was a significant but less than hoped for increase. Youthful first time voters are probably less likely to mail in or early vote. If there is another significant improvement over 2004 that will be enough to make a difference even if it’s not the huge increase Dems are always hoping for. All indications however point to a very significant increase in the number of African American early voters in several states including Florida.
they’re going to have to jettison the nutjobs who are currently calling the shots for them here. The demographic trends do not favor them right now, and it seems to me that without a major course correction soon the Colorado GOP will be heading the way of the California GOP. And believe me, that’s not a place they really want to go. We’re talking major marginalization and a whole era spent out of power and infighting.
I think the Colorado GOP would love to be in the place the California GOP is in. They at least have some control, including the Governator. At the rate the state party here is fading, they’ll lose the AG’s office in the next election and be completely shut out from major offices other than CD-5 and CD-6.
The CA Repubs don’t feel like they’ve got any effective control via Arnold – they think he’s a RINO.
The CA GOP is truly a feckless bunch. Ahnold attained the governorship through a recall election, NOT by having been anointed through a grueling primary or having made is way up through the party ranks. He is way too socially liberal for their tastes, but because he was well–positioned to ride the wave against Gray Davis, he got in.
But his incumbency does absolutely nothing for the rest of the state party, and when he steps down, the party will be in even worse shape than it has been the past decade. Even stalwarts like John Doolittle and Richard Pombo have been removed from office, and the party’s response has been to move even further to the right, in defiance of the prevailing paradigm. Now, if they had just followed Ahnold’s lead, maybe it would be different.
So I stand by my earlier comment – the Colorado GOP, if they are interested in recovering their relevance, would be best advised not to follow the California GOP’s lead.
Another state that has a RINO governor but otherwise the state is owned by the Democratic party and most of the Republicans retreat into cloud cukoo land. My mom keeps trying to get the party to go moderate and win – but most of them prefer to stay intellectually pure and fight over their 4 safe seats in the legislature.
The map David posted, from 538, uses a new prediction model that they just instituted tonight. Nate continues to bump the importance of recent polling data as the election closes in; “older” data (sometimes only a few days old) is now being weighted down much more quickly.
What that means is, 538 is narrowing on a “final map”. If the map you see is the map we get on election night, Obama wins 353-185. For those of you hoping for a beer, Obama must also win MO and IN in order to hit the magic 375 mark (or GA and one of MO, IN, or AZ; or either MO or IN, plus AZ and either ND or MT).
The best result Obama is even remotely likely to get is probably 406-132, and that assumes he wins all the “leaners” plus Georgia, Montana, and Arizona.
BTW – even if McCain wins all of the “leaner” states plus Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado, he still only reaches a 269-269 tie, which Congress would decide for Obama.
a sure thing until AFTER the election!
You read it on Chuck Todd’s state by state election guide:
Colorado: What a transformation. The Democratic dominance is taking place so fast that it appears the state forgot it was supposed to stop in “toss-up” land on its way from Red to Blue status. Democrats could win another House seat in the state, another Senate seat and see Obama carry the state. If I were the Republican Party, I’d make Michigan and Colorado my petri dishes for experiments to get the party’s groove back. Until the GOP can appeal to secular independents in the West and working class Democrats in the Midwest, they are going to be a minority party. The party’s comeback should start in one of these two states because they are microcosms of the GOP’s issues.
FiveThirtyEight seems to have put up a new map today. Florida has gone white (i.e. tossup). N. Carolina is lighter blue, MO is deeper pink. Obama is now down to 332.9 (ok, 333) projected electoral votes from 344.
So don’t get too confident, fellow Dems. The election ain’t over yet!
Don’t take anything for granted!
n/t
I think that Virginia and Colorado will still be counting votes well into Wednesday and the election will hang on that count.
PA does not have early voting and so all the last minute crap hits and influences PA. Weather can be a factor. I think McCain pulls it out in PA.
I think that Colorado’s margin is so close that the provisional ballots have to be verified and then counted…with court tests every step of the way
I think Virginia already is having problems with not enough ballots and other problems with fraud.
Let me review my three concerns which would stop an Obama victory..
1) Voting problems, as noted above
2) Republican talk radio….berg has been on all night coast to coast talk radio calling Obama a fraud and saying that he is not a US citizen, and not fit to run for office….this can influence PA…berg is a PA lawyer..
3) catholic bishops……in Colorado, told parishioners, basically, that they cannot vote for any candidate who supports the Constitution of the United States.
I predict an overwhelming popular vote for Obama and a narrow win for McCain in the electoral college…
Now that would have been a race.