U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Jena Griswold
60%
60%
40%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Alexis King
(D) Brian Mason
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) A. Gonzalez
(D) George Stern
(R) Sheri Davis
50%↑
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%
30%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Joe Salazar
50%
40%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
October 31, 2008 09:50 AM UTC
34 Comments
And keep in mind I’m one of the most optimistic Dems out there. When a team is kicking ass in a game and is rolling toward a giant victory, they have to keep playing superbly in order to gain that victory. If they slack off and coast – then that victory can turn in to defeat.
Yes we are headed for a strong victory. But only if we continue doing what we have been doing. If we slack off, then we piss it all away.
So everyone, keep working your ass off. Because all we have right now is a clear shot at winning if we keep up the effort.
it’ll be way closer. Obama by 2-3. Udall by 7-8.
What’s hard about sussing all the polls is that even after reading their methodologies thoroughly, we (and the pollster) still have no idea what the sample bias is and probably rarely what the systematic bias is. Since any pollster only samples tiny percentages of the electorate (say 0.01% – 0.1%) they all use their own extrapolation techniques to try to correct for the sample bias. But unless they were on the ground in the state, actually talking to each demographic, it’s still a guess.
But bragging before the final count still fills me with existential dread. Still knocking wood and poo poo pooing.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com…
It’s a nice compendium of information about weighting, likely voter models, sampling sizes, and overall lean in comparison to other pollsters.
You really shouldn’t dismiss polling without understanding this stuff. While polling is not exact, it’s silly to throw up your hands in the air and say it’s beyond comprehension.
yea…. i have a Ph.D. in stats (ok, stats via geophysical data analysis, but whatev) and a life as a political junkie so i’m not exactly throwing my hands in the air and trashing all polls….8-)
538 is doing the best analysis of everybody and I’m on their site daily. but in the end the nature of the problem is such that political polling will never eliminate the sampling bias problem and 538’s techniques only start to approach figuring out the systematic bias issues. Nice for them that they are the only group I know of even approaching the problem, though.
All that theoretical knowledge and late studying might have interfered with your George Bush gut instincts. You are triangulating the co-tangents when all you need to do is kick back with a beer and let your instinct tell you that John McCain has run a stinker of a campaign and that Obama dude never gives up a lead. Elementary my dear Watson.
Udall by 6-8, Obama by 2-4
From 538:
Keep pushing through ’til the end. Obama is losing by 1 vote until Tuesday 7pm. At that point we can all look up at the screen and find him 10 points up, but until then…
I’m not one of them. I don’t care what they say at this point. Reality is what matters now.
I’ll be convinced when I wake up on 11/5 and read that Obama is the President elect.
That would be the best early birthday present I could get.
Happy 50th!
😉
You’re not too far off, unfortunately.
/heavy sigh
Obama gets what he polls. 51.5-47.5, with a point going to loonies.
Udall gets some of the current undecideds that go McCain, for obvious reasons. 53-46.
The good news is that early voting numbers are so big and so heavily Obama (65% of the total vote, O+10 or so) that the CO race will be called almost immediately when VNS quickly sees that McCain won’t win election day voting by the 20 points he needs.
The bad news is that networks won’t call Pennsylvania and Virginia early enough to make it an early night, though Obama will win both (PA by 5, VA by 8). Can’t have people flipping over to something else because Obama is running away with it, can we?
The good news is that early voting numbers are so big and so heavily Obama (65% of the total vote, O+10 or so)
I’ve never heard anything like that. Can you link to it? Thanks.
[Feels dumb]
Actually, the poll shows a 17 percent margin of early voters for Obama, it’s a 10-point lead among all likely voters.
http://coloradoindependent.com…
http://elections.gmu.edu/early…
Right now they have Colorado early voting at 60% of the total 2004 vote.
However, the results of those early voting ballots will not be revealed until election night. So to say that it heavily favors Obama is not true.
Again, I was predicting, not stating.
You certainly cannot tell how the early voters voted until Tuesday night — though I will say that you can get a decent ballpark figure based on demos and polling.
But I am too superstitious. I thought you were predicting, but I didn’t know–we get a lot of people throwing out numbers that are made up.
The turnout is already amazing. And we all know what high turnout should equal.
And we all know what high turnout should equal.
I’m actually less optimistic on this point. High turnout in 2004 meant an effective Republican GOTV effort.
I am curious to see what today’s numbers are. I am purely guessing, but we’ve seen about 20,000-40,000 in person early voters on a daily basis. I’ll take the high end of that. Then we’ve seen 80,000-120,000 mail in ballots received on a daily basis. I’ll take the midpoint of that for ballots received today, then the high end of that for ballots mailed today, then the midpoint of that for ballots dropped off on election day. That would be what, 100k+120k+100k = 320k additional mail-in ballots, and 360k more total early votes. So about 1.6 million early votes cast, or more or less 80% of total votes in 2004. Assume a 15% increase in total votes cast to roughly 2.4M, and you get: 64% EV turnout, and 75% of mail-in ballots sent back in. That is a touch high on RV turnout, though (91%, compared to 89% nationally in 2004). But good enough for government work.
There was a line of about 30 cars dropping off ballots and a constant stream of people going in to vote.
And of course a huge vote out of Denver is necessary for state-wide wins for Udall and Obama.
I had to go to the Webb building today and there were lines in the Webb building waiting to vote. Not only lines waiting to check in, but people waiting in line, after check in, for voting cubicles to open up.
It looked to me that there were at least 50 voting cubicles and all were full.
Related to that. In Denver out of 196k mail in ballots issued, 60% (118K) had been returned as of the end of the day, Thursday.
Additionally, nearly 40K have voted early through the end of Thursday. It could hit 50k by the end of today.
That means that as of the end of the day Thursday nearly 160K ballots had been voted and turned in out of 303K active registered voters in Denver.
To make the understatement of the day:
This is turning out to be a big election turnout in Denver.
This bodes extremely well for Obama and Udall.
New MIB: 114k
New early in person: 67k
Right on on the MIB. I was way low on the in person estimate — given that it is breaking 37.7D-32.2R-30.1U, that’s good news for Obama, especially if the 60-40 unaffiliated split is to be believed.
My humble, uninformed opinion: This thing is over. Obama by high single digits.
It’s funny, I actually changed “numbers will be” to “numbers are.”
That said, though, I think there is good evidence that this is what the ultimate EV tally will be. Current numbers are at 61% of the total 2004 vote, and I suspect a crush today, both in person and people dropping their ballots in the mail. So 65% total might even be a little low, even given a significany total voting increase.
As for how it shakes out, based on the demos reported on Tuesday, I get O+6 or so (assuming Rep and Dem crossovers are at the same rate, and nonaffiliateds EVs break at the 57O-42M rate that polls suggest). This is significantly less than most polls show (probably because it underestimates Obama’s support among EV nonaffiliateds, and it doesn’t included mailed ballots that haven’t been processed), so I’m splitting the difference. We’ll know more tonight.
Udall 55% Schaeffer 45%
Obama 52% McCain 46%
So my guess is Obama by 10.
To keep the anti-chicken counting crowd happy, I’ll be bothering moms at the park this afternoon to vote correctly.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories…
I hope I’m totally wrong.
I hope I’m half wrong: I want Obama and Udall to win.
margins don’t matter, victories do.
Ask George W. Bush.
Obama, 59-40-1.
Udall, 57-43.
President will be: Obama 52.0%
McCain 47.0%
Barr 0.5%
Nader 0.5%
U.S. Senate will be:
Boulder Liberal Udall: 54.0%
Big Oil Bob: 45.0%
Dayhorse: 0.5%
Kinsey: 0.5%
but I bet the third parties get a bit more in the presidential race. Good call.
…are you talkin dirty? BlueRedGreen?
…around the neighborhood tonight, I saw three Nader signs and just about that many McCain signs. Many, many more Obama ones though.
But then, I’m one of those anti-Americans who live in the city.
The neighborhoods I walked through yesterday are of every economic possibility. An apartment on a major four lane highway to gated homes on Sarasota Bay. I included down ticket signs, right down to county commisionner.
No, I didn’t tally. I didn’t need to.
My neighbor that had the McCain sign now has it just leaning against her house, not in sight. There are a lot of Eger for Public Defender signs, but as I noted earlier, he and his Democratic oppononet live here, two stone’s throws from each other. So, I’ll count a number of signs for either of them as just being neighbors. There was a car parked near the elementary school with small McCain/Palin stickers and pro on 2 (anti-gay) and Christian decals.
Well, that was IT. Every other sign out the was Obama, with or without down ticket signs. Some yards had every single possible Dem candidate. Nothing equivalent for the Pubs.
This from a city that last voted Dem for Prez during the FDR years……