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October 29, 2008 01:10 AM UTC

Latest polls - Mississippi is in play!

  • 40 Comments
  • by: DavidThi808

How bad is it for the Republicans when Georgia & North Carolina will be down to the wire and Mississippi may go Democratic. There goes the solid South.

And from MyDD we have more amazing news:

The latest: Montana, a usually, reliably red state that is rarely ever considered in need of defending for Republicans during presidential campaigns. Democrats who monitor advertising spending report that the “independent expenditure” unit placed a new buy today, totaling between $300,000 and $400,000. Republicans confirm.

Yes, along with Mississippi and Arizona, the Republicans have to play defense in Montana. And with Montana the red blue map on Nov 5 is going to look pretty pathetic for the Republicans.

We’ll close out with FiveThirtyEight where we see that Obama’s surge is levelling off (but is still slightly upward):

Who's going to win

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40 thoughts on “Latest polls – Mississippi is in play!

  1. Doesn’t the public understand that according to Palin, Obama’s a communist? That according to no less than McCain’s esteemed foreign policy expert Joe the Plumber, Obama will be the death of Israel?

    What’s WRONG with these people?

    Ahhh, those Mississippi voters were always a bunch of communists anyway. Just ask Joe the McCain.

    1. It doesn’t matter at this point.  The GOP brand is as tainted Chinese baby formula.  The Dems could nominate Mao Tse-Tung, and he’d be running even with McCain.  

  2. On this one, I agree with Kos. I think they are propping up traditional states more for propaganda than for electoral votes. If the money could be better spent in a state with more electoral votes, they’d be spending it there. The fact that they aren’t indicates just how badly they are losing in traditional GOP strongholds.

    I mean, let’s get real here. If McCain is losing states like Montana, he has long since lost this race.  

    1. They simply have no choice but to go for it in traditional states.  Still, I’m keeping the champaign corked. There are still wild cards, including race, voter supression, and whether the new voters will take the last step.

    1. But I think not only North Carolina is in reach, but also possibly Georgia as well. I think it won’t be a landslide by the 375+ EV definition, but it will be a solid win.

        1. There are many different ways to cut this question.

          George Washington got 100.0% of the electoral vote, twice in 1788 and 1792.

          James Monroe got 99.57% of the electoral vote 231 to 1 for John Quincy Adams (Who was not an official candidate).

          Franklin D. Roosevelt is next up with 98.49% 523 to 8 for Alf Landon in 1936.

          Then the sainted Reagan got 97.58% and 523 to 13 for Walter Mondale.

          The largest number of electoral votes was Ronald Reagan, of course, since two states and DC were added to the electoral vote after Roosevelt was president. He got 525 votes to 13, a margin of 512 votes.

          Roosevelt got the largest electoral margin with a win by 515 electoral votes 523 to 8 and this is also the second largest total of electoral votes.

          Nixon got 520 electoral votes while George McGovern got 17 and John Hospers got 1 (Though he was not an official candidate). He won every state except for Massachusetts and he also did not take DC.

          In some ways, though, Ronald Reagan had a bigger win in 1980 when he got 489 to 49 because it wasn’t clear that he was winning until the last week.

          And finally the most lopsided win was Lyndon B. Johnson who only got 486 EVs in 1964 to 49. But it was really lopsided in the popular vote with him taking 61.1% of the popular vote, the largest margin of victory ever.  If a candidate could manage that percentage today he almost undoubtedly would be the only president since Washington to take every state.

  3. from McClatchy we have:

    North Carolina Congressman Robin Hayes, reeling from recent remarks about “Liberals hating real Americans,” has lost his lead in North Carolina’s 8th Congressional District race.

    Hayes trails Democrat Larry Kissell 51-46 in a poll released Tuesday by Raleigh’s Public Policy Polling. In its last NC-8 poll in August, PPP had the incumbent Hayes leading by five points.

    Hayes has lost 10 points for saying liberals hate America. Yet that was the core of the winning Republican message for the last 30+ years. As recently as ’04 it was a big winner for Republicans.

    Yet now in North Carolina it costs a Republican 10 points. Part of this I think is that with the fast direct dissemination of the web this gets to people before anyone can spin it and so they go yuck.

    But part of it also is that most voters now understand that we all love America. And that this kind of crap hurts us.

    If the ones spewing division and hate lose, that changes how people will conduct campaigns. So goodbye Musgrave, Hayes, Bachman – hello a bit nicer campaigns.

      1. NJ-05’s Scott Garrett is another one who might be losing because of the hate.  One of Sen. Cornyn’s staffers called Garrett “a nut” the other day – and said it to Garrett’s opponent’s daughter.

        Mayor Bloomberg just endorsed Garrett’s opponent, Dennis Shulman – a blind rabbi who Garrett has tried to link to Hamas, Iran, terrorists… and of course the ever-popular ACORN, Cindy Sheehan, and tax hikes.

        If Congress is short a few of these nutcases next term the world will be a better place for it.

  4. Go to the Colorado GOP website. This is sad.

    Last news release is August 12.

    Last Wadhams blog entry is July 24.

    The only candidates listed on the entire site are John McCain, Bob Schaffer, & John Lerew.

    They still have a link up for the “upcoming 2008 Republican National Convention.” And another link to “win a trip to the convention.”

    It looks like they actually gave up back in August. They are in total disarray.

    1. I think it was early 2006.  

      The Dem website was just like what you described, the state Pub site was well done and current.

      My, what a difference two years makes.

      Under Pat Waak and, sorry I can’t recall Mike’s last name, the Dems joined the 21st century.  Mike gets a big tip of the hat on that.  

        1. I worked with him when we rehosted the Douglas County Democrats web site on the Colorado Dems server. Mike is a very sharp guy and a pleasure to work with.

          1. I thought it was Weissman, but since we just visited my folk’s doctor named Wiseman, I wasn’t sure if my head was playing tricks on me.  Again.

            Yes, I’ve had a number of interactions with Mike and he is sharp as a scalpel.  A great hire.  

  5. I don’t know what’s in that Kool-Aid you’ve been drinking, but I hope it doesn’t make others as complacent as you appear to be, cause them to stop hustling, and ultimately affect the outcome of the election.

  6. when I saw that Arizona is “leaning” toward McCain.  I checked Realclearpolitics.com.  The link below is interesting.  While the polling shows McCain still winning in Arizona, check out the Rasmussen numbers.  From McCain up 21% a month ago to up 5% this week.  Wow.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.c

      1. And even more ridiculous than the Ayers and Wright fiascos.

        The New York Daily News reported, “Obama got help from an unlikely source yesterday when pro-Palestinian Prof. Rashid Khalidi denied a report that Obama used to be sympathetic to the Palestinian cause and had recently shifted his stance to pro-Israel. Khalidi spoke to the Daily News to rebut a report on a pro-Palestinian blog that was circulated by Clinton supporters. The blog, the Electronic Intifada, offered no evidence that Obama used to be supportive of the Palestinian cause, but cited private conversations, including one at a 2000 Obama fund-raiser hosted by Khalidi. Khalidi, now head of Columbia University’s Middle East Institute, said he hosted the fundraiser because he was friends with Obama while the two lived in Chicago. ‘He never came to us and said he would do anything in terms of Palestinians,’ Khalidi said. [New York Daily News, 3/6/07]

        Obama is pro-Israel. Jewish Floridians already know that.

        It’s amazing though, that McCain still isn’t talking about the economy. All he can do is bring up the latest 6 degrees of separation attack on Obama.

  7. gimme a break.  Mississippi is absolutely not in play.  Don’t be a bunch of koolaid drinkers, people!  The best way to read the poll aggregates here is to look at the all in scan, not in average.  Go to fivethirtyeight and look at the MS column.  There are seven MS polls and not a single one of them gives McCain less than an 8% edge.  

    On a different side of it find CO and see that every single poll has Obama winning.  Percentages of individual polls matter not at all, but the aggregate of many different polls by many different pollsters is very telling of Obama’s position here.

    The truly close states are the ones where both candidates are mixing in different polls.  Those states are FL, IN, MO, NC, ND (!!), OH, and VA.  The beautiful thing for Mr. Obama is that every one of those should be R lock states.  

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