( – promoted by Haners)
According to the Rocky Mountain News (Public Opinion Strategies, October 21-23, 500 RV, MOE 4.38%):
Amendment 48 (Egg as Person) 27-69
Amendment 58 (End Severance Tax Breaks) 48-45
Amendment 59 (DeBruce Colorado) 50-42
By Qunnipiac University (Oct. 8-12, 1000 LV, MOE 3%):
Amendment 46 (End Affirmative Action): 63-21
By Ciruli Associates (Sept. 19-23, 501 LV, MOE 4.4%):
Amendment 47 (Union Management Fees): 39-40
Amendment 49 (Payroll Deductions): 44-33
Amendment 50 (Gambling): 55-28
Amendment 52 (Severance Tax For Roads): 64-12
Amendment 54 (Ban Contrib. From Gov’t Contractors and Unions): 45-22
Amendment 58 (End Severance Tax Breaks): 51-25
Amendment 59 (DeBruce Colorado): 45-33
Amendment L (21 year old legislators): 27-55
Amendment O (Const. Amendments): 38-26
Polling on several amendments that were pulled from the ballot was as follows in Ciruli’s late September poll 53 (criminal responsibility for executives) 58-18, 56 (health insurance mandate) 48-30 and 57 (tort damages in worker’s comp cases) 41-37. Amendment 55 (just cause firing) was also withdrawn.
By Rasmussen Reports (Aug. 13, 700 LV):
Amendment 46 (End Affirmative Action): 55-23
I also recall seeing on poll showing a lead for Amendment 51 (sales tax for developmental disability), with slightly more than 50% support, with a moderate percentage opposed and many undecided early on in the election season, but can’t find a link to it.
I haven’t seen polling on Amendments M and N, both of which end obsolete constitutional language, but there is a long history of obsolete language measures passing in the state by wide margins.
I haven’t seen polling on Denver’s issue 3A (school bonds). There is a strong history of support for school taxation issues in Denver, but it is hard to know how hard economic times will impact that support.
Analysis
All other things being equal, the historically in Colorado, the vast majority of those undecided about a ballot measure will eventually vote “no.”
The most vigorous campaigning this election season has been with regard to the anti-union measures Amendments 47, 49 and 54 which a number of Colorado business groups have joined labor in opposing and funding opposition for, in part in exchange for withdrawing four measures that business lobbies didn’t like (53, 55, 56, and 57). Their has been campaigning in favor of those three measures as well, but it has been far weaker. So, I would suspect that those measures have lost ground since late September polling.
Influential Republicans have fought Amendment 52, and Democrats have not been strong in support of it either, but neither side has devoted much effort to spreading the word, so it isn’t clear that there will be anything but the ordinary skepticism to influence Amendment 52’s outcome.
There is no organized opposition to Amendment 51, but the pro-51 campaign has been modest, frankly acknowledging the pressed economic situation of voters and recognizing that they have a tough case to make this year.
My predictions (not my preferences):
Amendment 46 (End Affirmative Action): Pass — Easily
Amendment 47 (Union Management Fees): Fail
Amendment 48 (Egg As Person): Fail — Overwhelmingly
Amendment 49 (Payroll Deductions): Fail — Narrowly
Amendment 50 (Gambling): Pass — Narrowly
Amendment 51 (Sales Tax For Developmentally Disabled): Fail — Narrowly
Amendment 52 (Severance Tax For Highways): Pass
Amendment 54 (Government Contractor and Union Contributions): Fail
Amendment 58 (End Severance Tax Breaks): Fail — Narrowly
Amendment 59 (DeBruce Colorado):Pass — Narrowly
Amendment L (21 year old legislators): Fail
Amendment M (Obsolete Constitutional Language): Pass — Easily
Amendment N (Obsolete Constitutional Language): Pass — Easily
Amendment O (Constitutional Amendments): Pass — Narrowly
Denver 3A (School Bonds): Pass
Cross Posted At Wash Park Prophet.
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nullified by 52.
Please push to pass Ref O – and then I guess we need to push for a Constitutional Convention to undo the crap that’s currently embedded in the Constitution, since it will be harder to revoke the stuff that’s already written in.
And, the legislature isn’t that bad at passing piecemeal amendments that slowly, but steadily clear out the crap.
Also, even though I am a liberal, I have no faith that even my friends will propose future initiatives that don’t have devils in the details (case in point, Amendment 41).
The deliberative process really does improve legislation and constitutional amendments. So, I favor O without reservation, and oppose a constitutional amendment.
…um…dude/madam….O IS a constitutional amendment. Did you know?
When people get to the end of the ballot thinking “that was way too long”, and see “O”, they’ll think “this will help make sure I never have to go through that again”, and vote yes.
…rather the revenues would be redistributed to some other cause.
I saw no controversery and figured it would pass without any problem.
….ruined the chances of L!
There has been almost no press on it and therefore most people basically don’t know squat about it. There’s 18 initiatives on the ballot (yes 4 don’t count, but they’re there) and people are not going to study all 18.
As everyone points out, if you don’t know what it’s about, you vote no. I think this default and low advertising will kill 50, 52, O, and maybe L. 51 may pass because it is written clearly and tugs at the heartstrings – but maybe.
47, 49, & 54 I think will fail because the proponents did not come up with a reason to vote for them that resonated with the voters. With that said, the unions also have done a poor job in their trying to defeat them.
46 will pass strongly, 48 will crater, 59 will pass comfortably, and 58 I think we will be up all night on.
And my riskiest projection, M & N will pass by a resounding margin.
but it may be too little too late.
This really screws ag. I haven’t seen the farm bureau and farmers union together like this is a long time.
How is the search for your new Mercedes coming?
I think we all remember … Ewegen offshores American jobs, gets a fat pay raise and proclaims he’ll buy a new Mercedes.
Still doing your community service?
I think we all remember … Ewegen offshores American jobs, gets a fat pay raise and proclaims he’ll buy a new Mercedes. Life for you is just a peach!
Life is better for me than you, that’s for sure. That’s because I work while you mooch. For a guy who says he believes in the “right to work” you sure go to extreme lengths to avoid any real work. But then, who would hire a dyslexic liar like you?
That was funny, but I would love to hear his reply. I am sure he will find a way to blame a union.
Amendment 52 polled better than any other measure in the state, bar none.
There has been very little high profile opposition to 52 since that poll was taken.
I don’t like 52 either, but it would take an earthquake of opposition to move those polls and it isn’t clear that it is out there.
If you call me and ask me if I want more money to fix I-70, and that is your one question, sure you’ll get good numbers.
But when someone is going through pages of proposed amendments, and they’re reading this thing with a boatload of words that is not terribly clear – then it can play out a lot different.
Amendment 51 will pass.
but it’s a tax increase amid hard times and has almost no organized campaign in support. It will probably fail. .
I think that 51 will be defeated due both to it being a tax increase and the lack of organized support. Amendments to state statute and the constitution have passed without organized education and TV campaigns, but only low fiscal impact items. Tax increases don’t pass without organized support. They often don’t pass even with organized support.
The disabled portion will help it get closer than most but I’ll bet a six pack of beer that it won’t pass.
And I think it a good thing as it would cost the 150,000 poor Coloradans about one million dollars. (I base that on assuming an average of $3500 of taxable spending per person under the poverty line, which is really rather modest and probably understates what it will cost them.) The $2 per thousand may be chump change to middle class people, but to the working poor it really hurts.
49 is absolute crap. public employees will still be able to have loan payments and charitable donations taken out of their paychecks, but not union dues? this is a direct attack on public employees freedom to choose to belong to an organization to voice their concerns in how state services are delivered.
54 is even worse by limiting public employees ability to influence the law makers that make the decisions that affect their working lives. but it does nothing to address big business in our government, and i find it very interesting that walmart is allowed to be a leading campaign contributor in our great state, but we are going to vote out the people directly effected by our government.
if 47, 49, and 54 pass, kiss good roads, clean water, and centeralized mental health goodbye
But I don’t think we face death & damnation if they do pass. What we do face is a significant hit to unions just when they’re needed.
I do hope that after this election, regardless of the results of 47, 49, & 54 – that the unions look at how they can evolve to make for more productive businesses, and in that increased productivity, more wages for their members.
public employees have been on the chopping block for far too long. there has been a forty year calculated assault on your local state service employee and now that they have won the right to organize and stop this backward trend, road blocks have been set. we can always evolve, but why not protect public service while we still have them to protect?
The backers of 47, 49 & 54 don’t like unions, it’s true, but these awful measures are just means to an even worse end. The real objective is to break labor’s ability to raise and contribute money for Democrats. It’s part of a national movement to de-fund the left.
The “Left”, if you are looking at Democrats, seems to have enough funds right now, and a vast majority aren’t through union dues – and certainly not in Colorado.
What this changes more than anything is the union’s ability to lobby on behalf of their workers, or to be an effective force in the workplace.
Maybe where the backers of these amendments come from the primary purpose was to break the back of Democratic funding – and considering the mindset of many anti-union voices that’s a likely goal – but the impact is going to be on workers.
there is nothing in amendment 49 or 54 “to keep government clean” if anything, it’s meant to keep government dirty by continuing to allow big business to control colorado’s governing body through campaign donations. it’s not about ending democrat funding, it’s about silencing public employees. it’s not about ending coruption, it’s about ending public service.
While Caldara admitted this week to pimping himself out to the highest bidder, Coloradans should know it’s at their expense.
Here are the facts
before trying to write legislation to worship the egg. Maybe a little more education would helped her understand how crappy her legal trap was.
It was an obvious ploy all along to goose the social conservatives one more time but it was such a lame idea that it had all the appeal of a Bob Dole Viagra commercial. It was a terrible initiative and a failure as a voting gimmick. I was kind of surprised that as much as McCain loves election gimmicks that he didn’t pick it up and run with it.
She is a law student at this law school: http://www.obcl.edu/
But if you can get a ballot initiative on the ballot (no matter how many people think it’s stupid) at 21 years old, that is impressive.
This is not her creation. There were two other states were this same language was being pushed. Montana had a major anti-signature push and it failed to get on the ballot there. I believe the other state was Michigan. Actually, yes it was Michigan.
Here is a blog about it: http://personhoodamendment.blo…
You will notice that there are small differences. Mainly, conception v. fertilization, but the idea is exactly the same.
Is there a reason why the folks promoting Prop 8 in California (abridgement of marriage rights) are advertising on ColoradoPols?
They probably won’t get many Colorado voters to vote “yes” on their initiative. (Although there may be a couple of fools who spend the next six days trying to find Prop 8 on our ballot.)
If it is solely to raise money, given the reputed ideological tilt of most of the folks in here, they probably won’t raise much in this crowd. What $$$ they bring in will probably be less than they spend on the ad.
Maybe the LDS has closed the money chute? They’ve reputedly been the prime funding source for the pro-8 drive.
This is supposed to be an open, multi-partisan blog; ad display doesn’t cost much on the Web, and it only takes one donor to make a difference. Maybe they thought they’d get lucky…
A new Rocky Mountain News/CBS4 poll
Vote No on 47, 49 and 54.