There is a lot of speculation on this board and others regarding what happens to the Republican party in Colordo and nationally after November 4th (assuming, as I am, big victories for Democrats in Colorado and nationally).
First there will be finger-pointing, a natural occurance (it has happened with Democrats in the past as well).
But what happens next? Will the party continue to be dominated by those that I believe are responsible for the decline in the party, or will some of the disaffected Rs try to take control of their party once again and try to move it into the mainstream.
Running against liberals, or socialists or Boulderites has not been the ticket and it appears that Republican candidates (with some exceptions such as Susan Collins and others) have trotted out the same old arguements and the same old tactics. They don’t work any longer and frankly screaming liberal at every turn as if it were a bogie man has lost its traction.
So what next.
I have been predicting that when the election is lost, the John Andrews, Jon Caldaras and Dick Wadhams of the world will blame everyone else but themselves and their failed policies (or lack of any policy other than gut government and ferret out the liberals) and even more failed tactics.
In light of that thought here is some interesting polling that crossed my email today.
It is about the Republican Disconnect with political reality.
There is more after the jump and here is a link to the poll.
Your thoughts?
Fom the polling memo:
A special national survey of Republican Party supporters
With the country poised for its second wave election, Republican supporters are on a different page and disconnected from the rest of the country. That helps explain John McCain’s implausible close to the campaign and perhaps foretells difficulties Republicans will face dealing with the aftermath. In this special national survey with an enlarged sample of self-identified Republicans and independents who identify with Republicans, we asked the question, “who is to blame for John McCain’s possible defeat?” Republicans believe McCain will have lost because of a hostile mainstream media, economic events beyond their control and Democrats having more money and resources. Few have begun to examine bigger issues, though their views of the current campaign and the future suggest a party very out of touch with unfolding events.
While a sizeable majority of voters say Republicans have lost in 2006 and 2008 because they have been “too conservative,” a sizeable plurality of Republicans say, it is because they have “not been conservative enough.”
Over three-quarters of Republicans say Palin was good choice, while a majority of the electorate says the opposite.
Two-thirds of Republicans say McCain has not been aggressive enough, but a majority of voters think they have been too aggressive.
Looking to the future, a large majority of Republicans say the party needs to “move more to the right and back to conservative principles,” while an even larger majority of all voters say, it should move to the “center to win over moderate and independent voters.”
Finally, almost 60 percent of Republicans say “if Barack Obama is elected, he will lead the country down the wrong path and Republicans should oppose his plans,” while 70 percent of all voters say they “should give him the benefit of the doubt and help him achieve his plans.”
Those responses are not surprising when you ask Republicans the cause of their defeats: 65 percent say the mainstream media favoring Obama, followed distantly by economic events outside anyone’s control (29 percent) and Obama and the Democrats having more money (25 percent). Only 12 percent thought that McCain wanting to continue Bush’s policies was the culprit, only 10 percent pointed to Palin and only 8 percent suggested the big spending and deficits were to blame.
The key issue from this special survey of Republicans is whether or not the party is connected enough to what is happening in the country to work with the new leaders of the country and to begin the process of self-examination necessary for political change.
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I posted this elsewhere, but here it is again…with the spelling mistakes corrected
As to the question-what needs to be done to fix the GOP?
Before I go into that, one thing first-the GOP is not dead. The party of Lincoln survived the Watergate scandal after taking a much needed beating, and we will survive this. Political parties are kind of like the stock markets, parties go through bear markets and bull markets. Each party has their turn on top, but eventually they will lose it.
But what can be done to accelerate the GOP back into a bull market? Do we need to be more conservative, more moderate, or something different all together? The answer is: it depends.
When I look at a poll like the one above and I see that most people think we need to be “more moderate”, that raises some questions. What is their definition of conservatism? Do they associate conservatism with Tom Delay, Jack Abramoff, and Tom Foley? Do they associate conservatism with every single one of George Bush’s policies (run away spending, amnesty to illegal immigrants, blunder-ous military management, etc)? Or do they see the contradictions of Republicans intervening in Terri Schiavo hospital room while purporting individual/state rights? If the electorate associates conservatism with say corruption, then yes, the electorate is going to reject “conservatism” and say we need to move away from it, but that’s not what conservatism really is.
Having said that, I believe that Republicans have lost power because:
1. Management of the Government became a secondary priority.
Debates over issues like gay marriage, gun control, or Terry Shiavo may have their time and place, but most Americans want that time to be after the major issues are solved. In 1994, Republicans were swept into power by promising to make government more efficient. By 2006, the reforms stopped and time was either spent debating moral issues or lining one’s pockets with money.
Put that against a back-drop of a mismanaged war, hurricane relief, and economy….
First and foremost, people want the government to be run well. We stopped delivering that.
2. We turned our backs on fiscal conservatism.
There is no getting around it. In 1994, we were the party that pushed balanced budgets and fiscal responsibility. After some close elections, we thought it would be a good idea to take the Democrat’s approach of keeping a caucus together and a majority in tact by using money as our glue. When that happens, crap like a bridge to no-where come up and people (rightfully) see that as mis-management.
3. The inability to think or act for themselves.
From 1992-2001, Republicans did a great job of identifying and working towards fixing things wrong with the government. What changed? The election of George W. Bush. Republicans worked best when they were against Clinton. When Bush was elected, we stopped thinking for ourselves and took our queues from Bush. When Republicans stopped thinking for ourselves, we lost our discipline. We began to be “acted upon” as opposed to acting for ourselves.
To fix the Republican party, we need to return to our conservative roots in some ways, and not others. We need to (again) become the party that can run the government better-provide essential services in the most efficient way, and cut the services that aren’t necessary. We need to identify three issues each cycle that need to be dealt with to spell out what we plan to do.
We need to be prepared to deal with and be the safe guard of social issues, but not make them the center of our governance.
We need to be more accepting of any person who is willing to call themselves a Republican and support them. I remember reading an article where a Colorado legislator said they would rather have a “true conservative minority rather then a RINO majority”. This line of thinking has to stop.
1. As T.J. O’Rourke said, Republicans set out to prove government doesn’t work – and did exactly that. It’s key that the Republican party decide that government is the solution in places, and that they are going to do a better job than the Democrats in operating the government.
2. You guys have been fiscially irresponsible from Reagan on with Bush I being a notable exception. Yes you need to turn this around, but it needs to include admitting that supply side economics is a total farce and that taxes are necessary and need to be set to match expenses.
3. I would go further on this and say that the Republican party became anti-intellectual. Bush, Palin, etc celebrate that they go from the gut rather than evaluating and listening to various viewpoints. This may actually be the hardest of the 3 things you need to change.
So yep, big job ahead of you. I think eventually the GOP will get there because winning trumps most anything else. But you may not. The GOP in Hawaii has gotten itself into a rut where many do prefer being in the “true conservative minority” and playing the permanent victim. And they fight over the few scraps available to them.
If the state GOP goes down that road, Colorado will be poorer for it.
It did so after FDR, and it did so again after the surge in Democratic support starting in the late 1960s.
Also, a two party system inherently abhors a vacuum. As long as we have our current electoral system, two parties will emerge.
The real question is not whether the GOP will emerge, but what it will look like. Once upon a time, Lincoln’s GOP was the liberal party in the U.S., while the Democrats were the party of conservatives. The potential for a repositioning of the respective party’s coalitions until the are restored to parity, is a real possibility.
…rooted in intoxicating polls numbers.
the problem with the Republican party today…