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October 24, 2008 08:36 PM UTC

Races to Watch

  • 77 Comments
  • by: Haners

It honestly seems like yesterday that we were predicting who would win the Iowa caucuses.  Now we’re 11 days away from possibly the most entertaining/historic/ground-breaking election many of us may see in our lifetimes.  

And I don’t want you to miss a thing.

Below are the races I’m going to be watching on election night outside of the Presidential contest and why.  This is to spark discussion.  I would love to see what races you think are going to be indicator races and why.  I would also love to see which ones you think are interesting.  

Enjoy!

Races

North Carolina:  This state offers the rare combination of three extremely competitive state-wide races.  While North Carolina will be close on a Presidential level, I’ll be watching Sen. Dole’s re-election race as well as the open gubernatorial race.  North Carolina will be fun that night!

Pennsylvania:  Two Democratic incumbents are facing tight elections because of their own stupidity (see Murtha, Kanjorski), and one other Democrat and a Republican could face tight races because of various other reasons (Carney-D, English-R).  On a Congressional level, this state could be interesting.

Montana:  There are two competing narratives coming from Montana.  One is that Brian Schweitzer’s election as governor in 2004 and Jon Tester’s election as Senator in 2006 show that Montana is heading blue.  The other is that Montana is still a fundamentally conservative state willing to play with the right kind of Democrat.  Which narrative is correct?  The open Attorney General’s race should shed some light.  If the Republican wins while Schweitzer cruises to a second term, it would seem that the latter is correct.  If the Democrat wins, it would further the argument of the former.

Washington:  Down the ballot from the Presidential race are a few other elections I’m extremely interested in.  Re-matching from the closest gubernatorial election in Washington’s history is incumbent Governor Christine Gregoire (D) and ex-State Senator Dino Rossi (R).  Polls show this race as close.  The other is the race between incumbent Attorney General Rob McKenna (R) and challenger John Ladenburg (D).  McKenna’s solid margin in 2004 was due in part to his inept competition.  Ladenburg’s resume as a sitting county executive for the state’s second largest county and former county prosecutor present McKenna with his strongest possible challenge.  Last is the open State Treasurer’s race between two qualified and strong candidates.  Could Washington state be a Republican bright spot?

Vermont:  If a Democratic wave claims a surprise incumbent, it could be Gov. Jim Douglas.  If it does, it would be a shame.

Nebraska:  Former Governor and US Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns is going to be the next Senator from Nebraska.  But I want to see how well the Harvard educated ’06 Congressional nominee Scott Kleeb (D) can do.  If he does well enough and Obama wins on Nov. 4th, could Kleeb be the next Secretary of Agriculture?  Also, Congressman Lee Terry’s race should be a close one.

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77 thoughts on “Races to Watch”

      1. That gives Franken a shot, though I’d expect many will decide to pull for a mainstream candidate in the booth.  You never know, though. There’s the Obama’s coattails and they DO like their unconventional candidates (remember Jesse Ventura) there. In any case, he’s helping Franken.  

  4.    First, after running the sleaziest campaign I have ever seen to get himself elected in ’02, Saxby Chambliss (what a name!) is the Repub I most want to see lose.  

      I wouldn’t mind seeing McConnell lose, too.  First, there is now a tradition of targeting the opposition party leader (think Tom Daschle).

      I also think that if McConnell is defeated, that will open up the slot of minority leader.  I think John McCain would make an excellent minority leader with Joe Lieberman as his deputy.

  5. Musgrove in MS has name ID, an A rating from the NRA and a 30% black population.  I don’t know what the Obama GOTV operation is like since it is not a target state, but Musgrove has a real shot.

    Georgia and Mississippi are my longshots.

      1. We still have some time until Ref C ends.  The main argument, other than “Tax Hike!” is that the money should be put in the general fund.  If 59 is tweak to make some of the opposition happy, I don’t know how they’d be able to back off it.

        A tiny silver lining, just in case.  I already voted yes.

        1. we have to get it fixed this go around. In an off year election with a more focused GOP it will be much more difficult to get it passed.

          While there is no organized opposition, if there is a second go around there will be.

          1. is fighting on so many fronts it doesn’t have the time or money to trash Colorado.

            Danny is right, this is our best opportunity ever to bring fiscal responsibility back to Colorado.

          2. don’t know how important this is.  When people don’t understand a measure, they usually vote no.  In an off year you might get a more knowledgeable crowd.

            I hope it passes, but I’m worried that people aren’t going to work out the difference between refund and rebate.  I think if everyone’s honest, including the organized opposition, the only reason that 59 may not pass is because of the current economy situation.  Otherwise I think it would be a landslide.

            1. is landslide enough for me, droll!

              IF we win a close one, Douglas Bruce will cry harder than ever, knowing that his disgraceful conduct helped the good guys win. Right now, it’s up 15 points in the polls, according to my spies, but there are still 20 percent undecided.  The 59ers are going to work the Obama crowd hard Sunday7 since maybe of the undecideds on 59 are obama voters, according to those same polls.

              Win one for the big-eared guy!

                  1. has anybody seen anything on 51? To my amazement, it was left off all the media published polls so far. My guess is that its a tax increase in a year with terrible economic news and is headed to defeat, especially since it has no advertising support.   But it does have support in surprising places, like Rep. Bob Gardner, the Colorado Springs conservative.

                    And even a right-wing froot-loop like our own Libertine likes it.

              2. A lot of the people I work with or know ask me about the amendments (I don’t tell them how I voted or how to vote, that’s one of the reasons why they ask me).  As I explain them, people make up their minds usually based on how they vote politically.  59 is the exception.  I know a good amount of Republicans who are voting for it.  I suspect it will pass.

                1. because it fixes Amendment 23 but also because it triples the state “rainy day” fund.  As a final bonus  it drives Doug “the kicker” Bruce to apoplexy.

                  1. I know it’s not perfect by any stretch of the imagination, but I like that TABOR requires the voters to approve every tax increase.

                    This keeps that most important aspect of TABOR, but it keeps out the 1990s era thinking of cutting the taxpayers a check and still funding our education system. The two are incompatible.

                    59 keeps the tax rates in the hands of the voters, but allows us to fund education properly.

            2. My Colorado Ballot website just shot past 2,000 new visitors/day, and each visitor is averaging 8 page views. And I’m just 1 site. People clearly feel a responsibility to vote intelligently on these and are researching them.

              1. vote responsibly and continues to do so (only once this year, then every other year :)).  It’d be a nice change.

                BTW, it’s a pretty good site.  Good job!

  8. Ted Stevens has been staging somewhat of a comeback.  Of course, it might all be over before election night if Stevens is convicted.

    Young is outta there – no more Coconut Road earmarking for you, Don…

    The margin in the Presidential contest will be interesting to watch as well, with Palin’s name getting dragged through the mud lately.

    The Minnesota and Georgia races are interesting to me, too.

    1. An interesting tid-bit on Palin…

      I my line of work, I actually talk to a lot of people from Alaska.  While I can’t talk politics, I often sit there and listen as they talk to me.

      From that, I can only assume that Palin is still a rock star in Alaska.  Even Democrats up there have been won over.  It will be interesting to see someone like her run for re-election though.

      Also, I am looking to see how 200 and 201 play out in Colorado Springs

      1. Part of why she was so popular is because she could work with either party.  Between her new-found partisan remarks and Troopergate, she’s down.

        That being said, she’s down from the 80’s and 90’s to the mid 60’s.  So, Ritter should be taking notes.

        My long-lost-twin brother is from Alaska and said that it’s a little disappointing to see her in the national media.  Suddenly she’s rude and can’t put a sentence together.  He also told me that he’ll be voting Obama, partly because he wants his Gov. back.

        Whatever works!

          1. Everybody gets a check whether they pay taxes or not or work or not, courtesy of the collective Alaska resource, oil.  Way more socialist than Obama’s proposal to simply adjust Bush’s failed and way too expensive tax policy by returning the wealthiest to a pre-Bush rate and giving a break to the rest of us. A break, I might add, which will do more good than any trickle down.  

            The broad base is the engine fueling our economy and the world’s and when ordinary Americans can’t afford to buy the huge volume of ordinary stuff that’s being produced all over the world, a comparative handful of Richy Riches buying luxury goods can’t replace us. Especially when they don’t invest their money in ways which create well paying jobs and they haven’t. They just create more wealth on paper and keep most of it in the elite family, so to speak.

            Funny how their symbol, Joe the Plumber, would be much better off under the Obama plan.  And that 280K grossing business would have to gross a lot more than that for Joe, the future(in his dreams from what we can gather) owner’s income to climb to where he’d get any tax increase.   The business would probably have to gross at least twice that to make him 250K taxable.

            Palin is a phony. She has enjoyed all the perks as governor and as VP candidate she can get her hands on and Alaska is the only state in the union practicing socialism in such a direct and widespread form. Between her and Steven’s, I’m not impressed with Alaska voters. And I’m  not impressed with the McCain policy of socialism for the rich,  take-your-own-chances capitalism only for the rest.

          2. I don’t mean this to sound partisan at all because I’m honestly disappointed.  It’s kind of like comparing McCain now to McCain eight years ago.  And it’s sad.  I actually think that the real McCain/real Palin ticket would have been more successful and easier for everyone.

            I believe that other than a few issues that she feels strongly (to the right) about, these aren’t her thoughts, or her words.  That’s why she can’t get a sentence straight.

            1. I think Palin has good political talents. And she did a great job taking on some of the corruption in her state. She also appeared to do a decent job running Alaska, but keep in mind that Alaska is an unusual case between it’s sparse population, trust fund economy, and pretend libertarian ethos. She is a good match for that and the governorship does not require a rocket scientist and is not the place for someone wanting to bring about significant change.

              But on the national stage, that lack of smarts and intellectual curiosity is killer.

                1. Is the problem with the McCain campaign as a whole.  I think they have some sub-par advisors.  There is actually a good article about it that I ran across on the Washington post.  It’s long, but here is the link:

                  http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10…

                  It’s a great read.

                  Palin is talented and could still be in the game sometime down the line.  But the McCain campaign’s constant shift of narratives and failing to prepare Palin was certainly an avoidable mistake.

                  1. I’m still hoping for an embarrassing loss that makes her go away.  But that’s more partisan than anything else. 🙂

                    Good article, so far.  I’ve read two of the nine pages, but I’ll get around to finishing.  Thanks.

        1. Are ballot measures for Colorado Springs that take aim at the storm water fee that the council enacted.  Doug Bruce sponsored the two measures, and as noted today in the Gazette, the opposition has made the measures about Doug Bruce himself.  The signs around town say “Stop Doug Bruce, Vote No”.  I am interested to see if that’s a winning strategy for the “No” folks

      1. It’s a weird case.  Prosecution screw-up, followed by prosecution pulling its ass out of the fire, followed by Stevens taking the stand and not helping himself; now it’s with the jury, we’ve had one juror almost voted off the island and now a one or two day recess due to a death in a juror’s family.

        Sounds like the obnoxious juror took her meds; she’s been apparently more co-operative since the incident.  No mistrial so far.

  9. CD4: has Marilyn finally met her match?

    Amend. 59: The single most important issue we have voted on in years. If it doesn’t pass, the economy of Colorado is doomed.

    Ref. O: Are voters sick enough of constitutional amendments yet.

  10. Another rematch is Rep Dave Reichert (R) vs. Darcy Burner who challenged Reichert, the former King County Sheriff and longtime Green River Killer investigator, in 2006. Reichert was first elected to the vacant seat in 2004 and represents the affluent Eastside suburbs of Seattle (home to Microsoft).

    Reichert’s flaw is that he’s a social con in a time when the burbs (particularly affluent ones) are becoming more liberal on issues like gay equality. But he wisely avoids making public statements that can get him in hot water.

        1. They all are just popular enough to do it, esp. McKenna. (For the record: I remember him well as a member of the King County Council and thought he was a good guy. Unless he did anything egregiously partisan during his term as AG I don’t know why he’d be in trouble.)

          1. But Washington can be funny.  I think that the governor’s race is a tossup, but Gregoire has to have some sort of edge.

            I’m worried about McKenna because of Washington’s demographics and the fact that voters could very well punish anyone with an “R” after their name.  Now Washington allows you to put “GOP” after your name instead of an “R”, but still…a good portion of the Republicans swept out of office in 2006 were good moderate Republicans and just got caught in the wave.

        2. …but I have to wonder if he will die if he doesn’t win–or just you dying on the inside a little more?

          I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for WA to turn Red all of the sudden.  The Emerald City is home to a lot of those latte sipping, Prius driving, granola eating liberals, after all.  

          1. Out of Washington’s 9 seats, three are held by Republicans.  At our high point, I think we had five or six.  Dave is a good guy and a fine congressman.  If he can’t hold the seat that was a lock for us for decades, the Republican party in Washington is in trouble.

            And so would the state! (But the deserve what they vote for)

        1. Forces of Darkness (Pro-8 side) had, until recently, been raising quite a bit more cash (almost 2-1 advantage) than the Forces of Light (Anti-8 side).  The HRC recently had a rather large fund drive and that has nearly evened the funding.

          I expect this to go to the wire….

          The fact that this is thisclose indicates once again why civil rights issues should never be left to the whims and prejudices of the electorate (or the legislature for that matter)…

        1.    Other than that and the two yard signs I’ve seen in the district, the “Doc” is running a low-key campaign.

            Speaking of the War on Drugs, isn’t Jack Woeher running somewhere in Jeffco as a Libertarian?  (He’s run as a Dem in C.D. 6 some years ago)

          1. Today I walked on Broadway from 2nd Avenue down to Alameda. I saw five small businesses with signs for the Republican challenger, Doc Miller: which is about the same amount of businesses I saw with pro-Obama signs. I didn’t see any signs for the Democrat, Mark Ferrandino, in any business window, although assuredly he has his supporters among some business owners, as well.

            Yesterday, I walked for about fifteen minutes in the Baker neighborhood, which Ferrandino’s campaign material lists as his home neighborhood. I saw about as many Doc Miller signs as Ferrandino signs: not all that many.

            Now, let me be clear: I’m not a partisan in this race, by a longshot. There are people on ColoradoPols who I respect (yourself included) who have spoken in favor of Ferrandino and his performance in the legislature. I expect Ferrandino will probably win handily, as well.

            But, if Mark Ferrandino finds himself presented with any legislation in the future which brings a more rational approach to the War on (Some) Drugs, he needn’t worry about supporting it. His ass is covered. Unless he has some emotional bias, that is, which would prevent his rational examination and support of alternatives.

            Mark Ferrandino web site:

            http://www.markferrandino.com

            Doc Miller web site:

            http://www.electdocmiller.com/

    2. Debbie Stafford’s old seat.  It’s heavily Republican. There making a strong effort in several other seats but so far It just looks like a rotten year for Rs in Colorado. To make it worse, the state Ds are giving their legislative candidates terrific support while the state Republican party is in disorder. The state R web site doesn’t even have listings for the majority of their candidates!   Right now, I’m predicting the current 40-25 D majority shifts to the 39-26 it was before Stafford switched parties.

      In several cases I’m rooting for an R upset, but I just don’t see the ground game in place to make iut happen.

      1. I think this is one of the few areas where we can pick up a couple of seats.

        We’ve got to hold HD 17 if we have any hope of making real gains.  But I agree and think HD 40 is a prime pick up opportunity.  

      3. Anything new on him? That whole race seemed to go quiet 6 weeks ago and then there was the stuff about his restraining order & bankruptcy – did that kill his chances or did he answer it ok?

        thanks – dave

        1.    IIRC, the Rocky had a story about that and a Repub who had an old restraining order outstanding as well.  At least they added political balance to the story.

            Apparently this is an up-and-coming campaign tactic.  Get someone (anyone) to submit an application for a restraining order, and then leak to the press the fact that there is a restraining outstanding against the candidate.

          1. You forgot the original story on the restraining orders..

            http://www.rockymountainnews.c…

            pretty sure that the woman that was granted the 3 restraining orders againist Whitcomb 13 years ago wasn’t part of this “up and coming campaign tactic”, just hoping that one day he would stop stalking her, leave his 1st wife, move to CO, re marry and run for office, all so that she could be part of the smear campaign againist poor Joe.

  15. On KHOW’s Caplis & Silverman show this afternoon, 6th Congressional Candidate Mike Coffman expressed his support for abortion in cases of rape or incest.  Previously Coffman attended fundraisers for the ammendment 48 (Personhood) campaign, donated money to the campaign, and put in writing the fact that he does not support abortion in any circumstance.  Following is the link to the actual questionaire that candidate Coffman provided to Colorado Right to Life earlier this year.  Perhaps he should have asked Bob Schaffer or James Dobson how they faired when they crossed these folks.  2010 could be very interesting for Congressman Coffman.

    http://www.coloradorighttolife…

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