I was reading Mark Blumenthal last night when I came across an article he had linked to by David Hill at The Hill:
I spotted a new word this week that may soon be a stock part of the jargon of elections: precount. The context in which the word was coined was more general, describing the sum of events leading up to the election. But the term may soon have a more precise mathematical meaning if Professor Michael McDonald of George Mason University lures more of us to his early voting website.
There are some interesting numbers there:
Florida (in-person only, percentages are by party affiliation)
Democrat: 56.2%
Republican: 29.3%
None/Other: 14.4%
Those look good, but they do not include any mail-in ballots (with which Republicans hold an advantage on registration numbers) and it is only 2% of the votes cast in the 2004 election.
North Carolina (percentages by party affiliation, absentee and one-stop)
Democrat: 56.4%
Republican: 27.1%
None: 16.5%
If you’re getting sick of polls and the conjecture regarding their meaning, keep an eye on this site and you’ll at least have quantitative data to ponder.
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about 10% of registered voters have already cast their votes.