UPDATE: Local guru Craig Hughes at Hilltop Public Solutions isn’t buying what Quinnipiac is selling:
. @HotlineJosh Not just a demo issue; flat wrong in CO. Large portion of their Ind's are registered R's; not using voter file. #copolitics
— Craig Hughes (@CraigHughesinCO) November 18, 2015
—–
How to read sheep entrails.
The notoriously inaccurate pollsters at Quinnipiac University are out with another survey of alleged Colorado voters on the 2016 presidential race today, and as members of the political chattering class we are obliged to stop what we’re doing and talk about it:
With 25 percent of the vote, Dr. Ben Carson is the clear leader among Colorado Republicans and tops Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton 52 – 38 percent in a general election matchup, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
In fact, Clinton trails all leading Republican contenders by margins of 11 percentage points or more, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.
Trailing Carson in the Republican race are Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida with 19 percent, Donald Trump with 17 percent, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas with 14 percent, Carly Fiorina with 5 percent, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky with 3 percent, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush with 2 percent and 11 percent undecided.
Quinnipiac has a history of wild, unexplained swings in its poll numbers here in Colorado, making headlines for dramatic “results” that always seem to level out as the polls get closer to…well, the only poll history cares about. So before Democrats get overly concerned about today’s Q-poll showing Ben Carson, Donald Trump, and Ted Cruz all trouncing Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton, remember the junk Quinnipiac tried to pass off as polling in Colorado just last year:
#Colorado – Hickenlooper Down 10 Points In Gov Race; Dem Scores Low On Honesty, Caring, Leadership http://t.co/21puidbrq2 #cogov
— Quinnipiac Poll (@QuinnipiacPoll) September 17, 2014
So no, we can’t put a lot of stock in Quinnipiac’s numbers–not this far out, and especially not their head-to-head matchups between Clinton and Republican candidates. In terms of trajectories within the GOP primary pack, Carson’s ascendancy in Colorado makes some sense to us, perhaps given the attention he has paid to our state’s religious conservative primary voters. But that’s strictly our own empirical judgment, not anything informed by this poll.
Because there’s not any information here we would place a bet on. Talk to us in a few months–or in Quinnipiac’s case, maybe not at all.
You think you're so smart but you're too clever by half. It's true that Carson has been campaigning hard in CO, but the real story is Marco Rubio AHEAD of Trump and closing fast on Carson. Mark my words, as the primary moves out of silly season, Rubio is the candidate to watch.
The poll is dead right on the GOP field. Why shouldn't we believe it when it says Hillary is in deep doo doo? If anything I doubt she is that far ahead of Sanders.
In 2014 the Democrat hold on Colorado started to break. In 2016 we will liberate Colorado for good.
Rubio-Gessler '16
In 2014, your side lost the Governor's race, failed to flip the State House, won the State Senate by one seat, and failed to get 50% in a Senate race against a guy who ran a shit campaign, winning by less than 2%.
And all of that happened in a midterm election (where around 500,000 less votes were cast than in 2012). Basically, the same thing happened in 2010, before Dems took back in the State Legislature in 2012, and, oh yeah, voted to re-elect Obama.
So, tell me again how the the Dem's hold on the state is breaking?
All true but Both Ways Bob came a lot closer to winning in '14 than he did in '06. Next time, Beauprez may close the deal.
Beauprez '18 (or '22) ……. because he's getting closer each time!
Actually I am encouraged to see that 38% of Republicans wisely prefer Hillary over the vomit-inducing GOP clowns. Seems pretty obvious they excluded Democrats from this poll 😉
Yeah, that's got to be true.
Bitch, please. STFU.
Mark your Romney in a landslide words? Seriously? Also you said all our comments mocked Julie's son. Show us the comments (not counting SCat's which wasn't made yet when you accused us) or shut up and go away.
As stated in DailyKos, Hispanics, Blacks and women all underrepresented. Conservatives way over represented. The poll's probably an outlier. Hopefully this will get more pollsters to poll here since the prior poll was in April.
They're using their sampling model which is applicable in off-year elections like '10 and '14.
Quinnipiac polls: Sucked total ass in 2012 and 2014, now sucking ass in 2015 and prepared to continue sucking ass through 2016.
Quinnipiac: Polls only a teabagger could love, because like teabaggers themselves, every Q poll is utterly divorced from reality, and is a massive fraud being perpetrated solely for the purpose of creating a false, pro-GOP narrative.
Anyone who buys into a Q poll is a fucking asshole, as are all the shitbags running Quinnipiac. Remember when these Q scum fraudulently had Con Man Cory up something like 17 points?
I see a pattern developing here with Q-Polls, D.P.
As for the false, pro-GOP narrative. There are two ways of looking at that: 1.) It might boost enthusiasm for the Party of the Tea Bagger, or 2.) It could lead to complacency (why waste resources in Colorado – which is in the bag, so to speak – when $$$ could go to OH, FL and VA).
Or…maybe they call it like they see it.
Their record is similar to yours. 'Nuff said.
Quinnipiac has been wildly off base for many cycles now. Polls this early mainly reflect who's getting mentioned most.