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August 25, 2005 08:00 AM UTC

Which Way Blow the Senate Winds?

  • 28 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Earlier this week we discussed how both Democrats and Republicans believe they will win control of the State House in 2006 and haven’t been shy about saying so. On the State Senate side, however, predictions are being kept closer to the vest. Both sides are expecting to hold the State Senate when all is said and done, but they don’t think it will be by more than one or two seats.

Republicans think that they have a reasonably good chance of winning the seats now held by Senators Joan Fitz-Gerald, Moe Keller, Jim Isgar and Abe Tapia. Tapia has made the target list because elephants think he’s vulnerable for neglecting his district — and not for his high profile support of gay rights issues (Tapia, you’ll recall, made a passionate speech on the Senate floor last spring about his son, who is gay). Tapia, however, will be well-funded and this could be a very expensive race.

For their part, Democrats think that they have a good chance to beat Ed Jones in Colorado Springs.

We’ll be updating the Big Line this evening, by the way.

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28 thoughts on “Which Way Blow the Senate Winds?”

  3. The only folks who think Abel (not Abe) Tapia is in trouble in SD3 are up in Denver.  Here in Pueblo, anybody who knows anything knows that Abel’s got about the most securely Dem seat in the state.  The Repubs threw everything they had at him in 2002 when it was an open seat, with St. Rep. Joyce Lawrence, and she couldn’t even break 35%. 

    Abel’s consistently in the Chieftain discussing local issues — it would take an awful lot to argue that he’s “neglecting” his district.

  5. No race is for certian at this point, especially not Moe Keller’s.  She has a poor record and deserves to be sent packing.  As for Able, I doubt that he will be a serious target, given the gerrymandered district that he is in. 

    As for those who have forgotten about the Republican Party, if you review the history of the party you will find it was created from the Free Soil Party and Abolitionists that promoted an end to slavery.  The first U.S. President they got elected, Abe Lincoln, signed the Emancipation Proclamation that freed slaves in the southern states.  The Republicans then passed through the 13, 14, & 15 amendments, which outlawed slavery, guaranteed equal protection, and and gave voting rights to blacks.

    In fact it was not until the 1960’s that blacks started to vote for Democrats.  So maybe the Democrats should give Ed Jones a break for being Republican.

  6. I’ll remind Jonathan that the reason African-Americans started voting Democratic was their support of Civil Rights legislation and the subsequent defection of segregationists and racists over to the Republican side of the aisle.

    Regardless, WTF does Jones’ racial background have to do with anything here?  Just another “Dems are racists” slur?

  7. Actually Jones’s color is not why he will be targeted. It is his politics. He has sided with the extreme right of his party in every instance in the 2005 session.

    Tapia’s seat is very safe. Keller is about as safe as a Dem could be in her seat. But I am sure the Dem’s Senate Majorty campaign will give her some support.

    Neither Fitz-Gerald nor Isgar are in any danger themselves. Their seats could be battlegrounds if they follow the predictions and run for Gov./Lt.Gov. If that scenario were to play out, then I would have to reserve comment until I knew who the Dem & GOP candidates were. Also there is no law that if Joan runs, she’ll pick Isgar for Lt.

  8. I agree with Dan Willis that Fitz-Gerald is safe if she runs, but her seat is at risk if she goes for gov.  Isgar, however, will face popular Republican Rep. Mark Larson.  The paradox is that Larson is considerably more moderate than the conservative Isgar, but he might be the 18th vote that puts the likes of David Schultheis, moving over from the House, in control of the Senate.  Dems need to knock off Jones as insurance against losing Isgar.

  9. I agree…Abel’s seat is fairly safe. Even though I was living in Denver, I was working on his campaign against Joyce Lawrence.  It was as dirty as it can get down there and he still pulled it off.  He’s a big name there, everyone knows him, he creates some great deals for the people of Pueblo and I can’t think of any instances where he’s “neglected” Pueblo.

  11. Folks, no offense meant, just wanted everyone who thinks that the black community was always with the Dems, it is not the case.  Phoenix, just so you know there were plenty of nice conservaite folks helping out on the civil rights movement.  As for trying to pin Republicans as racists, that won’t play.  Sure there are racists in the Republican Party, just like there are in the Democrat Party.  The comment was in reference to the first post that was removed. 

    Isgar will be the number one target for the GOP.  Larson will be a tough candidate for this seat and will likely win.  The GOP has to win one more seat, just in case the Dems knock off Jones, so Keller will likely be number two on the list.  If Fitz-Gerald runs for higher office or the Republicans can keep her off the ballot her seat is the number two target.

  12. I have a question, is Joan Fitz-Gerald term limited or not? I thought that she was having trouble because of when she was appointed.

    Dan, Truerepublican, etc…please give a contact or something, e-mail me please…you guys have great info, I’d love to be able to chat about which races are hot or not.

  13. Let’s not forget that Isgar sided against the Dem’s on SB 207 and pretty much caused it to fail.  That bill had a 67% approval rating in the public.  That’s going to be a liability for Isgar.

    Of course, he probably only voted against it becuase Larson was the sponsor on the house version, which passed.

  16. Joan Fitz-Gerlad is currently considered to be eligible for one more run as Senator. Sec. of State Davidson made this ruling some time ago, but at the prompting of the GOP, she asked the AG for a second opinion. As far as I know the AG has not yet responded.

    By the plain language of the law, Joan is eligible to run again. Had she been sworn in 2 days earlier, she would not be.

  19. Entz is certainly well-known in the valley and that makes him tough to beat.  He has gotten more liberal with each session though.  Naral endorsements, switched on Right to Work and started getting AFL-CIO endorsements.  No hero to the gunnies either.

  20. AG John Suthers is looking into the Fitz-Gerald matter and from talking to one of his assistants I get the impression that they think they would win in court.  Obviously it isn’t certin, but I think they would only go forward if they were about 90% sure they could keep her off the ballot.

  21. Entz is an institution in the valley and the State Capitol.  A Marine, a farmer, and State Sen. who stands up for his constituency regardless of thier affiliation.  Many life long Dems have constistently voted for him.  Only a Salazar has a chance against him.

  22. I wonder on what grounds Suthers is thinking…

    Davidson was no Democrat; she ruled based on the plain language of the law, and I have a hard time believing that a ruling based on what might have been the spirit of the law has anything more than a 50-50 chance.  A ruling from a second Secretary of State would likely secure Joan’s future, as it is the SoS’s office that certifies these matters.

    If the GOP persuades the SoS’s office to sit on the second opinion long enough, it could force Joan to move for her only sure bet – to run for Governor.  A lawsuit forcing a ruling doesn’t have to be filed until the election season is well under way, and Sen. Fitz-Gerald can’t afford to wait for that.

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