There is building evidence to suggest that a potential re-run for his former CD-4 seat in 2010 may be factoring into GOP Senate candidate Bob Schaffer’s late-game strategy.
The first is the apparent shift in Schaffer’s touring schedule to heavy ground pounding in seemingly less strategic Eastern Plains towns (for the Senate race anyway) like safely-red Lamar, where he spent hours touring a power plant earlier this week.
And there’s this new ad:
Which is by far the most barn-and-cowboy hat festooned TV spot Schaffer has released to date.
There is the simple fact that incumbent Marilyn Musgrave has proven a perennially weak contender who may well lose this year, despite CD-4’s endemic GOP advantage. Even if she squeaks another costly victory, the coolness between Musgrave and Schaffer is a poorly-kept secret, and Schaffer could make an eloquent case for himself as the more long-term electable (spelled less expensive) candidate.
But the strongest evidence of all that Schaffer may be shifting gears to 2010 was provided by this morning’s Denver Post:
Udall has so far raised just less than $10 million – and significantly increased his take each quarter – but spent that and more. Including a $1.5 million transfer from Udall’s congressional campaign account, the Democrat finished the third quarter with just $546,000 in the bank.
Schaffer, by contrast, finished the quarter with $2.7 million in cash on hand, after spending just more than $2 million during the period. [Pols emphasis]
Now Dick Wadhams claims that a good deal of money was spent after the reporting deadline, but it’s highly unlikely they spent it all. Or even most of it. That’s also known as a “war chest” in most circles, and frankly it’s the only way holding on to that much cash this late in the game makes sense.
A poll follows: as Schaffer’s Senate prospects grow bleaker by the day, might he be keeping one eye on his old stomping ground?
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the fact that if you look closely in the first part of the ad, he is surrounded by the current 4th CD incumbent Marilyn Musgrave clones.
you’d think someone would be concerned that Dick Wadhams is voting multiple times.
We just won’t survive without you in office, so please make another run for CD-4. We all need some Jack Abramoff common sense in Washington.
Does he think people are that stupid ? This guy is the epitome of Washington DC shady lobbying. But hey, if you re-elect him to CD-4 after he gets trounced for Senate, he’ll work with you to “change Washington”.
Enough.
…is really desperate to get back on that elected public office gravy train. What is it Bob, the free health care, the free franking or all of that lovely lobbiest money?
Pols just posted yesterday that major repub donors are pulling out their support–if Schaffer knew this was coming maybe he was just laying some by for the final push? To test the hypothesis one should monitor Schaffer’s statewide campaign spending over the final month until election.
Are emergency measures responding to conditions that have unexpectedly deteriorated in recent weeks. Would have been difficult to predict the extent of the problem now facing them even six weeks ago.
And the bottom line is the nosediving poll numbers for Schaffer, which neither the DC kingpins in DC nor Schaffer can ignore. Reality forces tough choices.
The limited funds available to the Republican side has been a major topic on the blogs for 6 months. The surprise was that they waited this long to focus on the few races that were closest.
And Schaffer showed from the start that he was a poor bet with his ongoing train wreck of a campaign.
The cash-on-hand does raise questions, but I wonder if he’s just hedging bets by making sure his long-time supporters turn out, with the ad and appearances in his old district.
It probably wasn’t the best strategy, but Schaffer might have hung on to his own money for the last month because outside groups were spending so heavily against Udall early on and, as Raven points out, he couldn’t be sure the NRSC would still be there at the end of October.
When you get trounced this bad in a stae-wide race your political career is over. If Schaffer had run a strong race and lost by a couple of points, then he would have a second chance. But who’s going to back someone who’s doing this badly. People don’t vote for losers.
Plus, I don’t see anyone being able to beat Markey in 2 years.
Plus, as much as Mr. Schaffer complains about government, he has held elected office all but two years for the past twenty years. He is one of those conservative politicians who constantly complains about government but is continually sucking at the public you know what. He is nothing but a professional office holder.
…with cheat sheets, either:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
And Udall takes the high road and lets Schaffer keep his notes, even after the candidates signed an agreement which specified no notes !
What the hell, let Schaffer cheat all he wants.
The “I’m Dick Wadhams…” answer is the best poll answer ever!
He’s dumb.
I wouldn’t be surprised about a move on the 4th CD. But remember that Schaffer, along with Musgrave did damned little in developing the district. Schaffer was elected to the House in 1996, inheriting the district as Wayne Allard moved to the Senate. It was the high tide of post-Reaganism and the wind was to Bob’s back. Bob superglued his nose to Newt’s derriГЁre. A hard working conservative Republican could be Congressman-for-life in the 4th CD by not pissing off all the newcomers and professionals who power a larger and larger demographic, particularly in Weld and Larimer Counties. This vast moderate but thoughtful ‘group’ has been seriously undermobilized. Thrilled with surfing on a riptide of history, Bob underperformed… didn’t reach out, wasn’t around, and local people in the bigger cities got impatient about that.
Decent candidates ran against him, but the organized Democrats in his district were content to keep the party small and irrelevant. Smart Democrats in the area knew the Party was worthless to them. The state party never tried to ‘get’ the district and were clueless about how to turn it. There were no Democrats in the state’s congressional delegation interested in creating political opportunities for promising, newer Democrats as Salazar and others seem to have done. There were no rich sponsors for Democrats at the time. The district has changed and all the demographic and political tides are flowing away from his politics.
The smiling soft-pedaling ideologue routine doesn’t work so well for him now, particularly after being spectacularly outed this season as a freewheeling plunderer. Bob’s exposure of late has not been ‘the good kind.’ Still, I don’t think Schaffer has been flayed and barbequed to the extent that a closer Senate race would have accomplished. I don’t think the Udall campaign and associated groups have used its oppo research to the fullest (why should they?) and the Dems could roll it out for a Schaffer run in the 4th CD. Aside from being damaged goods in general, he appears to have been a specific disappointment to some of the independent groups backing him. I don’t think he could be regarded as a good investment.
If Schaffer is sitting on a war chest right now, he will need it to get the nomination in the 4th CD. There are smarter, harder- working conservative Republicans in the district who will not easily defer to Mr. I-was-a-Congressman. And… depending on how the party in the County ‘swings’ with the news that the party is swimming in doo-doo… moderates may also be unwilling to roll over, especially having been affronted by him on more than several occasions. In any case, how can Schaffer claim that he hasn’t had his chances already? Stick a fork in him.