If you’re like me, you enjoy reading the Electoral College-based websites like Pollster and FiveThirtyEight. Those two sites alone have been more insightful at picking apart the current polling data and extrapolating it into something tangible than any MSM electoral analysis I’ve seen.
Both those sites are great, but they don’t allow you to throw in your own insight (and guesses) as to which states will go which way. I didn’t know of any myself until I stumbled on Yahoo! Political Dashboard’s Create Your Scenario feature. With the simple click of the mouse you can determine whether a state will go blue or red, and it changes the Electoral College score.
Here is my map, in which it is a close election, but Colorado swings the White House to Obama.
Here is one in which my scenario plays out, except New Hampshire goes red. In this scenario, there is an Electoral College tie.
Here is David Thi808’s scenario.
Merely clicking on a state to change the outcome of a Presidential election makes me feel like Katherine Harris must have felt in 2000.
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You can go to the presidential polls and electoral college view, and click on any state to change it from, say, “Leaning McCain” to “Solid Obama.” Pretty nifty.
Go to that site, and turn every tan state into blue. Then toss in one electoral vote from Nebraska (I like this site because it lets you split Nebraska and Maine). And short of a miracle, that’s about the only way I can get to 376 electoral votes and earn my six-pack.
(I don’t even care about winning the election anymore, I just want my beer.)
That is an awesome site too. Thanks for link.
Even if you don’t win the bet, I’d still love to buy you a beer.
I think 396 is Obama’s absolute top and I think 264 is his absolute bottom.
You must have him winning Florida, Ohio and at least North Carolina or Virginia. I tend to be a lot more pessimistic regarding those four. Especially Florida and Ohio for historical reasons.
If any states in the southeast start going blue early in the evening, it’s going to get about as tough for McCain as it did for John Kerry in ’04 when they all went red.
I think where we’ll be watching late into the night is GA, MT, & ND. And we might even see MS & TX get close enough for the Repubs to worry.
Needless to say, with those 4 showing a swins early on, there won’t be much worry about who our next president will be.
I used to love to watch him go through the hypotheticals while each state came in, even though the last 2 times the end result flat out sucked.
I think the GOTV operations in NC and VA are going to make the difference.
I think in Florida the stock market and Social Security privatization will make the difference.
I actually think Ohio is the toughest to call because how much time McCain is spending (money and Time) and McCain actually has an operation. But GM just announced more job cuts and there is real blue collar fear. Free Trade? its going to kill McCain. In addition D’s control the state apparatus, no 2004 hijinks. There is one more weapon Obama can deploy–Federal Government Fleet vehicle mandate all plug in electric–Chevy Volt made in America.
OMG – that’s hilarious on my link. If only…
although come on, not even David thinks Utah’s going Democratic this year. If you took everyone’s name off the ballot in Utah except Obama and refused to count write-ins, it would still end up a tie there.
Obama converted to LDS.
my map
but if you’re going that far, why not West Virginia?
I think he can win a close race in the West (MT & ND) and he clearly can in the South (GA along with VA and BC).
But I think WV, KY, TN are the impossible ones, along with the whiter part of the deep South.
TX and MS will be interesting, especially considering that not much effort is being put in there.
I think there is a chance Obama will take Arizona, lots of Social Security recipients living there, like Florida. Plus the citizens know Mccain only moved there to run for office.
My My Map.