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October 09, 2008 08:31 AM UTC

Tonight's stats

  • 12 Comments
  • by: DavidThi808

How are the numbers looking today? Well lets take a look at ballots cast so far and the polls.

And remember, while most of the measurements are of the presidential race, this is very much a Democratic (change) vs Republican (more of the same) race. McCain’s only done this well so far because he’s viewed as not toeing the Republican line (right!).

from the Boulder County Clerk we have:

212,743 registered voters.

100,852 (47%) ballots mailed

4,039 (4.0%) returned

1,376 (1.4%) undeliverable

I would guess they already have over ½ of the undeliverable ballots back as by definition, they were all mailed to Boulder County addresses. If it ends up at 2%, that’s not bad for a location with a very large student population.

What’s really interesting is that almost half the voters are doing mail-in ballots. Those are much more likely to be voted. And 4% voted when they received the ballot. I expect this to keep climbing for a couple of days, then settle back down to a slow constant through the rest of the month.

I think these are good numbers, but I can’t find those from 4 years ago so I don’t know for sure.

Polling

John McCain is in a lot of trouble. If McCain wins every yellow state, he’s still about 50 EVs short. And the trends are that Obama will take all 5 yellow states and maybe WVa.

Now eventually Obama is going to run out of states. Utah and Alabama are not going to vote for Obama, not even if Jesus himself returns and endorses Obama. So from an electoral vote standpoint, we are running into diminishing returns.

But how much more is still an open question. From POLITICO’s Ben Smith we have:

An Obama supporter, who canvassed for the candidate in the working-class, white Philadelphia neighborhood of Fishtown recently, sends over an account that, in various forms, I’ve heard a lot in recent weeks.

“What’s crazy is this,” he writes. “I was blown away by the outright racism, but these folks are f***ing undecided. They would call him a n—-r and mention how they don’t know what to do because of the economy.”

We have a lot of voters who won’t be sure how they will vote until they are in the voting booth. And it will depend on how they are feeling at that moment. But I think we will see a lot of these people break for Obama – because if they were going to break for what they are comfortable with, they would have done it already.

It’s very very difficult for people to make a radical change in their outlook. It’s uncomfortable and uncertain and many people go through life never having their basic beliefs challanged. But a large enough event can break through and cause people to consider fundamental change.

The fact that people are facing this possibility and are seriously considering it – that’s the hardest part of the battle. I think we’ll not only see the undecideds break for Obama, I think in places he will get more than his plus the undecided numbers.

And at FiveThirtyEight we have:

This trend line has to start leveling off, but it sure isn’t doing it yet. The next week will be interesting but we may see it get as far as Obama +12.

And what does this mean down-ticket? It means candidates like Mark Udall to Betsy Markey to Joe Whitcomb will have some very nice coattails to help them. Because Obama is running as a Democrat (as opposed to McCain who is running away from the Republican brand). Yes some will split their ticket. But many others who are on the fence will be voting for hope, for change, for working to improve the world – and that’s the Democratic ticket this election.

The Ballot Initiatives

Finally, is anyone paying attention to the ballot initiatives? YES!

I checked the stats for my site ColoradoBallot and here’s what we have for the last 2 weeks (it’s only been around 3 weeks and had no traffic the first few days):

12,655 Visits

83.65% New Visits

8.11 Pages/Visit

07:15 average time on site

And the volume is still growing. It is approaching 2,000 visitors/day. So by election day there will probably be about 50,000 people who visited this one site. Now multiply that by the people who uses sources other than the internet (why???), or who go to other sites, or who talk to friends.

And look at the time. Taking over 7 minutes and reading 8 pages is a serious effort by people. Yes some will blow off the initiatives, but many clearly are making an effort to cast an intelligent vote on them.

And the most popular initiative pages on the site:

  1. Right To Freeload
  2. Eliminate Affirmative Action
  3. Outlaw Abortion
  4. Higher-Ed Scholarships
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Comments

12 thoughts on “Tonight’s stats”

  1. Well, the daily trackers have dropped in the last two days, but today will see the first post debate numbers.  That may help stanch the bleeding from the vicious attacks launched by Palin and now Cindy M.  

    And those attacks will wear off too, I believe.  If so, and Obama has another solid debate, we could see +12 nationally.

    If that starts materializing, say two weeks out from the election, you might see Obama in Texas, Georgia, and Montana.

    So the limit could be more like 400.  Especially if Texas falls.  Right now McSame leads only by 9.  High Latino and AA turnout could swing the state.

    1. There is no way. If that happens it would be like some sort of Democratic reawakening. Kids would learn about Jeffersonian democracy, Jacksonian democracy, and Obamian democracy.

      Seriously, not going to happen.

      1. A 9-point lead in the popular vote can easily translate into an electoral college tally of over 400 (as it did for Reagan in 1980 or Bush in 1988 or Roosevelt in his last two elections). It tends to greatly exaggerate minor differences in vote totals.

        As for whether 400 means a huge memorable shift, Lyndon Johnson would beg to differ.

  2. From The New York Times:

    …

    Michigan and Colorado are removing voters from the rolls within 90 days of a federal election, which is not allowed except when voters die, notify the authorities that they have moved out of state, or have been declared unfit to vote.

    …

    In three states – Colorado, Louisiana and Michigan – the number of people purged from the election rolls since Aug. 1 far exceeds the number who may have died or relocated during that period.

    States may be improperly removing voters who have moved within the state, election experts said, or who are considered inactive because they have failed to vote in two consecutive federal elections. For example, major voter registration drives have been held this year in Colorado, which has also had a significant population increase since the last presidential election, but the state has recorded a net loss of nearly 100,000 voters from its rolls since 2004.

    …

    In Colorado, some 37,000 people were removed from the rolls in the three weeks after July 21. During that time, about 5,100 people moved out of the state and about 2,400 died, according to postal data and death records.

    …

    The secretaries of state in Michigan and Colorado did not respond to requests for comment.

    I registered about 50 people to vote, but I happened to check one and found he was not in the database. Don’t know why not.

  3. My ex-wife’s mother’s (RIP) father was shot dead by a black man while collecting some money owed.  My mother-in-law didn’t like black people because of that, although it wasn’t outright racisim or hatred. More of an undercurrent of attitude.

    The years went by and her son and his wife adopt their first kid.  Amy’s white mother was having and affair with a black man….oops.  I’ll never forget the first time “Mom” held Amy, it was nothing but pure nurturing love.

    And she never had another bad thing to say about African-Americans.

    I’ll bet that Obama will win, will have an outstanding four years, and when many of 2008’s racist go to vote in 2012 they won’t even remember Obama’s color.  

    1. That’s yet another reason why this election will be so important. Racism among whites will recede. Feelings of resentment among blacks will recede.

      When you think about it, the fact that Obama has a white mom and a black dad makes him an even better transformative candidate.

      None of this would matter if he were stupid or venal a la Palin, or had the wrong politics or temperament a la McCain. But we’re really lucky to have a candidate who happens to have all these qualities.

      Now Secret Service – do your job and protect him from those total nutcases out there!!!  

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