U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Jena Griswold
60%
60%
40%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Alexis King
(D) Brian Mason
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) A. Gonzalez
(D) George Stern
(R) Sheri Davis
50%↑
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%
30%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Joe Salazar
50%
40%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
October 07, 2008 02:55 AM UTC
16 Comments
GObama.
“If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.”
Rasmussen’s numbers for today are largely rosy for Democrats, including a poll showing Obama ahead in Missouri. (Only a single CNN poll has shown Obama leading in the recent past.)
But it isn’t just a single poll confirming this trend; all the tracking polls are heading in Obama’s direction, and in battleground states multiple polls are saying similar things.
I have hope, but I I also know I still have to work my *** off between now and the first Tuesday (after the first Monday) in November.
Incredible numbers of new registered voters – even with attempts at voter suppression in Colorado and elsewhere by a desperate GOP.
Thank you – and keep it up!
Will Palin/McCain drag Dole down with them?
It looks like a mutual depression society there right now; Hagen has pulled rather decisively ahead of Dole in recent polling, and it looks like Obama is picking up steam right alongside her – or McCain and Dole have both run out of steam at about the same time, your pick).
I guess the same could be said about Virginia where Warner is mopping the floor with Gilmore, or even here where Udall is holding a consistent lead over Schaffer.
Kay Hagan is probably going to win that race by 5 or 6, which is astounding considering where NC-Sen started this cycle.
NC is probably an easier pickup than AK right now.
Colorado and Florida moving into Light Blue territory is a sea change for the Pollster map, which tends to be conservative when assigning its ratings.
I’m sure this dramatic shift has nothing to do with Palin…
Reports from Nevada are saying that Democrats gained another net 19,000 registrations in September, changing the state from 42D-41R-27I to 46D-38R-26I since January.
We’ll have the final Colorado registration changes in a few days, but if the people that have registered this year turn up at the polls, the election map could be significantly bluer than even the current polls predict.
On another (similar) note, early voting has begun in Georgia already. The Georgia A-A community makes up 29% of registered voters in the state, and historically accounts for 25% of voter turnout there, but 39% of the ballots turned in so far are from A-A voters. A plurality of the 500,000+ voter registrations processed since 2004 are from Black voters; an estimated 300,000 new registrations are not yet reported (or possibly processed – is GA a same-day registration state?)!!! Nate over at 538 calculates the race if Blacks were to turn out in Georgia at or above their showing in the voter rolls, and calls it a complete toss-up.
Where does this map wind up?
I think that would be the shock pick up of the campaign.
are, sadly, sometimes mutually exclusive.
I am so proud of the VRD efforts and the community organizing that took place so far in this campaign, but now it all rests of GOTV. Hopefully we can make it happen, and I look forward to seeing how Obama’s mobilization efforts differ from Kerry’s crappy job.
Puts Ohio and New Hampshire in light blue, giving Obama 320 EVs outright, with only 55 toss-ups.
I think the old map was a bit of a stretch, but the new one is just insanity. I simply don’t believe it is going to be anything but insanely close.
Pollster has been pretty conservative in the past about moving states from “toss-up” into one of the “lean” categories. I don’t consider either Ohio or Colorado to qualify under Pollster’s previous “lean” requirements, and I suspect they’re changing their map algorithm in some way.
The latest polls are showing very very few undecided voters now; is Pollster beginning to look at the “undecided” vote in its calculations? Or perhaps flagging polls where someone is hitting the magic 50% mark?
The last three polls have moved NH into double-digit Obama territory; the only other reliable poll I see on 538’s poll list in the recent past is an R2K poll showing Obama +4. So I agree with the Pollster assessment of NH. OH and CO, not so much.