Thursday Open Thread

“You can’t make anything idiot proof because idiots are so ingenious.”

–Ron Burns

34 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. MapMaker says:

    Open Thread - Doomsday Predictions

    Will the Chinese stock market decline be the last chance for Republicans to throw the US economy into recession before the next election?

     

  2. DavidThi808 says:

    If I had to bet now, I'd bet on Trump winning the presidency. I wouldn't give him even 50% odds, but I do think his odds are better than anyone else's.

    Why? Because he's not just a lighting rod for disaffected voters like Ross Perot and many others are. He's figured out how to run a much tighter OODA loop using social media much more effectively than anyone else. And the social media campaign is as big a transition as the TV was for Kennedy vs Nixon.

    He can definitely beat both Bush & Clinton because neither has the ability to run anything as close to as fast an OODA loop. It's just not in them. So they'll always be responding to an old issue as Trump has moved on to 8 new issues.

    And they'll keep waiting in vain for the news media to hold Trump accountable for his statements not realizing that the news media is also reacting too slowly to have any impact.

    Maybe someone will figure out how to compete with him (Bernie Saunders possibly). But my guess is he'll own the discussion right into the white house. When the means of campaigning fundamentally changes, the experienced politicians generally lose.

    • yameniye says:

      The way Trump will not be president is he is the ultimate teabag Republican.  He took the far-right-right wing of the Republicans, and made their imagined and possibly even real fears his rallying cry.  Who are those people? The same far right white males, KKK, John Birchers, white supremacists and those unemployed/underemployed due to Republican,  Bush tvi II, Bush I and Reagan policies.  Will they realize they are being tossed under the bus my the loud mouth?  Probably not.  They do not understand that the world is better under Obama in spite of the obstacles of the Republican congress people.

    • exlurker19 says:

      David, he has the support of around 30 percent of Republicans, and around 40 percent of Amuricans self identify as Republican.  Do the math, Dave, 12 percent of the country supports him, mostly old disaffected white guys.  That means that right now about 88 percent of the country doesn't support him so much.  A chunk of that 88 percent are the browns and blacks he's running against.  Women largely don't support him.

      I stole these numbers from a Daily Chaos posting, can't find the post again to site it. 

      Seriously, Dave, I don't see Trump having the stamina to last from now until a year from now November.  President Trump won't happen.

      But your colleague MacAfee jumped into the clown car.  Maybe you could support him.  Less charismatic, but just as cray-cray as the Trumped-up One.

    • MichaelBowman says:

      Emasculated White Men Love Donald Trump

      Washington’s political establishment remains stunned by Donald Trump’s continued rise. They had thought that Mr. Trump would definitely have self-destructed by now – whether with his remarks about women or immigrants. In defying that expectation, Trump in effect joyrides the entire American establishment.

      While many American commentators believe that Trump flips out rather uncontrollably from time to time, it is at least worth considering the opposite scenario: What if all of this is more or less calculated?

      If Trump does not want to go down as a loser, and that is against his elemental nature, he must be sure that he defines his key opponent. Only amateurs believe that Trump sees the rest of the Republican field – “losers” as he calls many of them – as his opposing number.

      To him, the real opponent is Hillary. And, paradoxically, the better he manages to define her — instinctively and almost imperceptibly — without ever really talking about her, the more successful he will be in the end.

      In a nutshell: Trump will loom large just as long as Hillary Clinton does. Trump and Clinton are the conjoined twins of American politics – and of the 2016 presidential race.

      Trump, as a phenomenon (rather than as a mere presidential candidate), is a direct reflection of a profound nationwide fear among white men. The rise of Trump shows just how elemental the worries about seeing Hillary in the White House are among that set. Hillary Clinton symbolizes just about everything that has “old-school” American men – and there are many of those – afraid.

      • Andrew Carnegie says:

        Michael,

        I didn't know you were a Trump supporter.

        • MichaelBowman says:

          And again, you expose your willful ignorance to the intertubes.  

        • FrankUnderwood says:

          BTW A/C, which of the 17 embarrassment of riches running for the GOP nod do you support?

          • Progressicat says:

            Based on the comment to Michael, I'd guess Carly!™ since she's the only one with any balls in that group.  Personally, I despise her, but then I worked for her, so…

          • MichaelBowman says:

            When you have Congressman Blake Farenthold as a face of your movement, your best days are behind you.  

            Frustrated Conservatives Take Aim at the Iran Deal – and the GOP

            There was Phil Robertson of the reality-television show “Duck Dynasty,” with his signature scraggly beard, who strode across the open field and in between banners warning of “Islamic fascism” and Sharia law. There was Sarah Palin, trailed by a throng of cameras as she chastised Senate Republicans for how they have handled the Iran pact, which is inching toward approval.

            And then came the latest towering addition to the coterie of lingering tea-party personalities and insurgent political newcomers: billionaire Donald Trump…“We are led by very, very stupid people. Very, very stupid people. We cannot let it continue.”

            Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Tex.) said he regularly is greeted by similar crowds, full of voters who call themselves “conservative” over “Republican” and have to be convinced and prodded to not abandon GOP ranks.

    • Andrew Carnegie says:

      David,

      I would agree that his odds are better than anyone else's, but still too early to call.  Problem for Dems, just looking at big picture, history suggests after 8 years of one party in the Presidency people are ready for a change.

  3. BlueCat says:

    30% of Republicans, despite all the hype you're obviously buying, is not going to make him President, David. Especially since he could never in a million years get 35% of the Hispanic vote which is what a Republican needs to win the WH. Romney just got 27%. His ridiculous poll showing that Hispanics love him is total bull. Real polls show the depth of Hispanic loathing for him. And not just Hispanics. He just got thoroughly and roundly booed showing up to watch Serena's match in New York. You're letting the lazy ratings loving media blind you to common sense just as Trump blinds his very small minority of supporters. Once again. Remember it's not even anywhere close to 30% of all potential voters. Don't be ridiculous.

  4. BlueCat says:

    How about something completely different to get pissed off about?

    Exclusive: 50 Spies Say ISIS Intelligence Was Cooked

    It’s being called a ‘revolt’ by intelligence pros who are paid to give their honest assessment of the ISIS war—but are instead seeing their reports turned into happy talk.

    More than 50 intelligence analysts working out of the U.S. military's Central Command have formally complained that their reports on ISIS and al Qaeda’s branch in Syria were being inappropriately altered by senior officials, The Daily Beast has learned.

    The complaints spurred the Pentagon’s inspector general to open an investigation into the alleged manipulation of intelligence. The fact that so many people complained suggests there are deep-rooted, systemic problems in how the U.S. military command charged with the war against the self-proclaimed Islamic State assesses intelligence.

    “The cancer was within the senior level of the intelligence command,” one defense official said.

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/09/exclusive-50-spies-say-isis-intelligence-was-cooked.html?via=newsletter&source=DDMorning

  5. BlueCat says:

    And this. 9/11 heroes great for grandstanding pols but spending money to take care of them? Not so popular:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/september-11-responders-health-benefits_55f1a07be4b093be51bdd5a5?utm_hp_ref=politics

  6. Davie says:

    In today's "Mud wrestling with The Donald" update:

    In an interview with Rolling Stone magazine published on Wednesday, current GOP frontrunner Donald Trump was quoted remarking about the appearance of former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, the only woman in the Republican field, when she appeared on his television set.

    "Look at that face!" the real estate mogul said. "Would anyone vote for that? Can you imagine that, the face of our next president?!"

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-carly-fiorina_55f17d22e4b03784e2781531

    Michael Bowman is right — Trump has a lock on the angry, white, sexually insecure, misogynist male Republican.

    Otherwise known as the backbone of the GOP!

  7. Today the Senate took its first vote on an attempted resolution of disapproval of the Iran deal. The cloture motion failed, with 42 Democrats voting in favor of a filibuster.

    Meanwhile in the House, right-wing conservatives aren't happy with a simple vote of disapproval – which they know won't block the deal. So the House is going through with a series of bills that would strip the President of the power to implement the deal (which will also fail to pass the Senate, and which might be unconstitutional on top of it all…).

    At this rate, Republicans won't even be able to put their disapproval of the deal on the President's desk.

    • Andrew Carnegie says:

      When the rockets start landing in Israel the Dems will be reminded of their complicity.

      • mamajama55 says:

        How does a rocket get past Israel's Iron Dome?

        Regardless, I'm sure you will be cheerleading the war effort – from a nice, cushy seat on the sidelines, no doubt.  

      • BlueCat says:

        If you mean anything nuclear, that's highly unlikely. Israel has a well stocked nuclear arsenal as everyone knows. As to other stuff, Israel is well equipped , especially with their alliance with us, to deal with it as they've been doing all along. And there's nothing in this agreement that prevents us from taking any action, including military action, against Iran so there is no increased danger associated with the deal no matter how many times you silly righties claim there is. Don't take it from me. Take it from  the Israeli intelligence community who support the deal and think Bibi is being a real pain in the ass about the whole thing. 

  8. MichaelBowman says:

    I'm guessing these Texans are doing a booming business today…

    As we stand high up on the Hill of Megiddo looking down at the Plain of Megiddo where the Battle of Armageddon will soon take place, we can imagine the jet airplanes screaming overhead while the heavy tanks rumble through that natural theater of war – seven miles wide and fifteen miles long. We read the prophecies straight from the Bible as we stand on the very site where it will all soon come to pass.

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