Obama moving ahead

from fivethirtyeight we have

Here’s the long and short of it for John McCain: Barack Obama has as large a lead in the election as he’s held all year. But there is much less time left on the clock than there was during other Obama periods of strength, such as in February, mid-June or immediately following the Democratic convention. This is a very difficult combination of circumstances for him.

On the strength of a set of national tracking polls that each show Obama at or near his high-water mark all year, our model projects that he would win an election hold today by 4.2 points. It discounts this lead slightly to a projected margin of 3.3 points on November 4, as most races tend to tighten as we approach election day.

Here are the results from running their simulations. Not that Obama has good oddds of getting as many as 390 electoral votes. That’s a blow-out.

Colorado is now #7 in tipping point and #4 in ROI. I believe that is because we’re becoming a pretty solid Obama win. I put that not only to Obama selling himself and the Bush/McCain disaster, but that Schaffer and Musgrave are also hurting the Republican brand in this state.

22 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. DavidThi808 says:

    Unlike yesterday today I got unequivical answers – and they were all strong Obama supporters. A couple are so upset with the direction the Republicans have taken this country that I doubt they will vote for a single Republican.

    Yet no one has told me they’re a Democrat. Maybe some are but they all clearly view themselves as independent voters. And so far, 100% Obama.

    ps – When I ask I don’t say who I support and several were surprised when they asked me and I replied Obama. So I don’t think these are people telling me what I want to hear.

  2. Go Blue says:

    National Daily Tracking Surveys

    9/25-27/08

    DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000

    1,100 LV, 3%; Live Telephone Interviews

    Obama 50, McCain 43

    Diageo / Hotline

    905 RV, 3.2%; Live Telephone Interviews

    Obama 47, McCain 42

    Gallup

    2,719 RV, 2%; Live Telephone Interviews

    Obama 50, McCain 42

    Rasmussen

    3,000 LV, 2%; IVR

    Obama 50, McCain 44

    On average, that’s not good for McCain especially since Palin is an increasingly big problem for the McCain campaign.

  3. Go Blue says:

    Aide: “Impossible to know” if McCain will be in DC for bailout vote

    John McCain’s top economic adviser reiterated his conceptual support for the bailout to reporters — but a spokesman told Politico he’s not sure the Arizona senator will actually be on hand for the vote, which now seems likely to come Wednesday:

    On a conference call with reporters on Sunday, [economic adviser] Douglas Holtz-Eakin said Sunday that McCain staff members are “looking at the proposal.”

    “We have every expectation that the House will be able to move quickly,” Holtz-Eakin said. “The senator’s goal all along was to put in place a process that would address the problem and respect the American taxpayers’ dollars.”

    Asked if McCain would return to Washington for the vote, “It’s impossible to know until the vote has been announced,” Tucker Bounds, a McCain spokesman, told Politico.

    Now I’m not one to believe much of what comes out of Tucker Bounds mouth, but this type of unclear “leadership” by John McCain will not rest well with voters.

  4. Melinda Lady says:

    The thought of Obama winning this election terrifies me. To think that Americans would trust him to run the country at this critical time when he doesn’t even have the resume to run a company is bewildering.  Wake up, everyone.  Yes, he’s smart, articulate, and has an inspiring general message of hope, but he has no experience and lousy judgment.  He is the Manchurian Candidate of 2008 – does and says whatever he’s instructed to do and say. It’s a show, and he’s the lead actor. As the polls go, so does His rhetoric.  I’ll send $100 to anyone who can list all the policy changes he’s backtracked on during his campaign. I’ll give you one to get you started – Until recently he promised to get our troops out of Iraq in 2009 – now he says he’ll get them out according to ground conditions.

    • ClubTwitty says:

      who fails to understand that McCain has lost his bearings (just consider last week–suspending (not) his campaign, refusing (not) to debate until the financial crisis is solved, the Palin/Couric interview…

      Yesterday he claimed credit for solving the financial crisis, literally minutes before the stocks plunged almost 800 points, the largest one day drop EVER.

      Just raising the BS about a Manchurian candidate, a supposed ‘lack of experience’ and how ‘scary’ he is (not to mention the silliness of calling him politically fickle when contrasted with his opponent)…is lame.

      Its all talking points, no substance.  Troll.  

      • Melinda Lady says:

        Your comment is empty and without substance.Obama doesn’t have a “supposed lack of experience” – name 3 major bills he sponsored in the Senate – bet you can’t.  The one subcommittee he chairs has never had a meeting because Obama is too busy with his own lofty career goals.  And what about his “give me a call if you need me” comment?  This man doesn’t know what hard work for the American people is.  I have no idea why you support him, but if you think he’s going to give you a tax break, watch out.  You’ll have less taxes to pay because you’ll be unemployed.

        • Danny the Red (hair) says:

          And you think John McCain does?

          He’s had to jobs in his life: Pilot and legislator.

          He’s never even had a paper hat job in high school or college.

          Obama at least construction while he was in college.  He started working retail when he was 16.

          McCain’s family: Military royalty.

          Obama’s family: single mom and struggle.

          As to experience.  Obama has built and run one of the most effective and efficient operations in his field.  He knocked off the top competitor that had been in business for 40 years.  How did Obama do it? A better product, better organization, better use of technology, better marketing and discipline. I think it was called the campaign.

          As to bills

          Dignified Treatment of Wounded Warriors

          Federal Funding Accountability and Transparency Act of 2006

          Lugar-Obama proliferation and threat reduction initiative

          Now you name three bills of McCain in 26 years.

          I can think of 1

          • sxp151 says:

            Oh wait, that was all over the news but didn’t actually pass.

            McCain-Lieberman! Oh wait, same thing.

            McCain-Edwards? Oops.

            Wow, I dislike McCain intensely, and even I never realized how little he actually got done. He got his name on all this stuff, he got it mentioned in the media, but he never actually did any work to get them passed. Even with McCain-Feingold, it passed because Feingold got all the Democrats behind it.

            No wonder he failed to make the bailout happen. Passing laws is the one thing this 26-year veteran of Congress is totally incapable of doing. Who’d have thought?

            • Melinda Lady says:

              Obama is an elite Harvard grad who has never done anything for this country without a personal agenda.  His resume is embarrassingly thin, and even his community organizing produced nothing.  The people he supposedly helped said that – not me. Even if you are a dem you must realize how difficult McCain’s six years in prison camp were.  I know I couldn’t have survived.  He had the opportunity to leave early and didn’t, and that deserves our respect.

              • ThillyWabbit says:

                was a legacy admittance to the Naval Academy where he graduated at the bottom of his class, who cheated on his first wife because she wasn’t pretty anymore and then traded up to a better model.

                Can we not keep this discussion to actual issues rather than personal bullshit?

          • Melinda Lady says:

            Oh, don’t talk about Wounded Warriers – Obama wants to have our soldiers read their attackers their rights – these are prisoners of war and he wants to give them the same rights as Americans!  But why should that surprise me?  Look at his acquaintances – Rezko, Aires, Wright – they’re all America haters, and he’s worked with them all – even had Wright marry him and baptize his daughters.  Obama is a radical who will spend more than $1Trillion on programs for people who don’t want to take responsibility for their own lives.  My parents sacrificed to send me to college, and I have worked since I was 15 – why should I have to pay for his plan to give money to anyone wanting to go to college?  What ever happened to Americans working to get an education and better life?  He’s so wrong for our country.

            • Danny the Red (hair) says:

              Your “soldiers read their attackers their rights” is laughable.  All US combantants operate under “Rules of Engagement” (when you can shoot and when you can’t).  Aside from Obama’s more muscular commitment to pursue attackers into Pakistan–Show me evidence of a difference in their Rules of Engagement.

              As to Rezko–Well McCain’s got Obama Beat.  Cindy McCain was doing corrupt sweatheart deals with Keating, while McCain was throwing sand in the eyes of the regulators.  And Oh Yeah–Keating went to prison and McCain was censured in our last bank bailout.  So McCain’s ties to corrupt fellons is actually greater and those ties actually cost the US real money in our last bank bailout.

              Ayers? Does that mean we get to talk about Todd Palin belonging to a radical seperatist organization?

              The Alaska Independance Party was founded by Joe Vogler. Here’s what he had to say in a 1991 interview, 3 years before the Palins went to the AIP convention and Todds 7 year membership in the AIP

              “The fires of hell are frozen glaciers compared to my hatred for the American government.

              … And I won’t be buried under their damn flag. I’ll be buried in Dawson. And when Alaska is an independent nation they can bring my bones home.

              ..I’m an Alaskan, not an American. I’ve got no use for America or her damned institutions.

              http://tpmelectioncentral.talk

              Palin even sent them video best wishes this year. The AIPs wish: Secession from the US.

              Wright?  I guess all of Palin’s Kooky preachers are on back on again considering she was there when the craxy things were said?  Personally Crazy preachers don’t bother me, Don’t bother Mike Huckabee much either:  We know Preaching always has oratorical excess–at least the entertaining ones do.

              Now if you hate Obama because he wants to make college affordable for working people, That’s your right.

              Personally I started working on a tree farm when I was twelve, worked my way through college, grand school, and law school with no student loans and no more than $3k from my mother and I see things a different way.  My entire college career was determined by money, got accepted into MIT no way I could afford it without debt and I was terrified of debt.  

              If you believe in a meritocracy you should not be making children a slave to debt and Oh by the way–not every kid has parents who care about giving them any money for college and I think it is the US’s interest to help the best and brightest kids achieve as much as they can even if their parents won’t (or can’t) help.

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