As with the Washington Post’s Fix Senate Line, blogger Chris Cillizza tracks the races most likely to switch parties:
8. Colorado’s 4th district (R): A quick look at Rep. Marilyn Musgrave’s (R) career in Congress shows a candidate who vastly underperforms in a comfortably Republican seat. Democratic nominee Betsy Markey is the best candidate Musgrave has faced and, according to polling in the contest, leads the incumbent. Republicans believe an alleged conflict of interest on Markey’s part is a silver bullet but we remain skeptical. (Previous ranking: 12)
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That means we have at least 8 seats flipping R to D. Because I don’t see how she can lose the way things are going. Musgrave has one approach to campaigning – she tried it, and Betsy slapped it down.
Tell me again, 4 years ago how many Republicans did this state have in Washington, state-wide here, and in the legislature? I think come Nove 5 will have seen a bit of a shift from 4 years ago.
two of the races ahead of her are endangered Democrats. Of those two, at least Lampson appears destined to lose: he seems to be a great representative, but that district just doesn’t elect Democrats. Lampson won in 2006 because the stunning incompetence of the Republican party resulted in not having a Republican on the ballot at all!
Still, it does look like we’ll see a substantially bigger Dem majority in both the house and senate after this election; and that’s amazing given that this was year supposed to be the correction after the 2006 landslide.
I thought I had read a month ago that all the close ones were Repubs incumbents.
..you would know that not all of the Top 8 likely-to-flip spots are currently held by Republicans. Numbers 5 and 7 are held by Dems.
Markey’s showing has been very impressive.
Markey stayed the course probably figuring correctly that her likely primary opponents lacked the stomach for a fight.
If previous Pols posts are accurate several Republicans are hanging around like vultures hoping Musgrave loses so that they will ahve the chance to move up.
Will Ken Buck run for Congress or Attorney General if Musgrave loses?
she will own that seat forever. She almost certainly will provide great constituent service (based on her work for Salazar) and with that, the advantage of being an incumbent, and the continued Dem trend of that seat – she’s there as long as she wants.