InTrade showing BIG Obama surge as Palin drops scheduled events across the nation

(does McCain’s team now see Palin as a negative? – promoted by DavidThi808)

Something is Brewing:

The prediction markets (InTrade) are showing people betting heavily on Obama winning the electoral vote, as his ‘stock’ surges.

Meanwhile, Sarah Palin is canceling scheduled appearances in California and Washington, and perhaps in Ohio and Florida.

MSNBC has a new story up about all the DC lobbying Wasilla did while Sarah was mayor, with one city official bragging about all the earmarks they scored for their little town.

83 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. ClubTwitty says:

    moves Obama back into lead in electoral tracker

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com  

          • ClubTwitty says:

            Since its all you got after all that braggadocio just 4 short days ago..

            It was the arrogance and ineptitude of the Obama campaign.  That they are unable to see that they are now ‘blowing a gimme’ and not listening to advice, and repeating silly ‘gloves off’ attacks that brought them to where they are now.  

            And where are they now?  And where is the Palin/McShameful McShameful/Palin campaign at now?  Oh yeah.  Barracuda bounce gone, McSame sinking in the polls.

            Sure, lots can still happen.  But its a big and quick turnaround for your team and pretty much puts the bull in your shit.  

            • Laughing Boy says:

              Watching polls from day to day is like watching individual waves, trying to gauge the ocean.

              This is a horse race, and the debates are coming up.

              I stand by my thought that it’s amazing and telling that the Dems aren’t way out in front at this point.

              • ClubTwitty says:

                a few short days ago you were saying how bad it is that Obama lost a few points in NYC and that the wheels were coming of the Obama cart and that Democrat were panicking.  

                It is a horse race. Polls are polls and only the one on 11/4 matters…

                But I’m surprised that you aren’t barfing all over yourself spinning around like a top and all.

                  • Laughing Boy says:

                    if I’d be doing the pee pee dance if I were you about your candidate losing 10-18 points in NY since June.

                  • BlueCat says:

                    He has it hard enough, having to pretend Palin for VP isn’t like a bad sitcom come to life.  And  before we get too pleased with McCain’s apparent misunderstanding of the fact that Spain is not in Latin America or that Palin sounds like a teeny bopper running for class secretary, let’s remember that Bush II got elected twice.  

                    Getting out the Dem vote more aggressively than ever before is what we need to be concentrating on. And it’s still probably going to be a nail biter.

                    • Laughing Boy says:

                      Here’s what he said in the interview:

                      During the interview, which was focused mainly on U.S. relations with South America, the reporter turned the subject to Europe and asked McCain whether he would meet with Spanish Prime Minister JosГ© Luis RodrГ­guez Zapatero. To which McCain responded: “I would be willing to meet with those leaders who are friends and want to work with us in a cooperative fashion.”

                      The reporter then asked a second time: “Would that invitation be extended to the Zapatero government?” To which McCain replied: “Honestly, I have to analyze our relationships, situations, and priorities, but I can assure you that I will establish closer relationships with our friends, and I will stand up to those who want to harm the United States.”

                      Here is what the reporter that interviewed him is now saying, as TPM backs off…

                      She tells me she doesn’t believe that McCain didn’t know who Prime Minister Zapatero is or where Spain was. Instead, she believes that McCain was deliberately ducking the question of whether he’d meet with the Spanish Prime Minister. “I didn’t get the impression that he didn’t know who Zapatero was or where Spain was,” the reporter, Yoli Cuello, told me. “Honestly, what I thought was that he didn’t want to answer the question with a yes or no answer.”

                      Even if the smear was true, (which it clearly wasn’t) at least it was about a foreign country.

                      Remember this?

                    • BlueCat says:

                      and he was given several ops to acknowledge that it was a European leader, not a Latin American one, they were asking him about and he REPEATEDLY answered with reference ONLY to Latin America, at one point asking and I quote “What about me what?” after the questioner reminded him she was asking about EURPOE not Latin America.  

                      McCain clearly just was not able to track what he was being asked about.  I’m sure he does know that Spain is in Europe but in that moment he was too confused to recover. You can buy the spin if you want that it was all some subtle calculation on his part but don’t expect to sell it very successfully. Not with the video of Lieberman whispering in his ear about Shia, Sunni, Iran, el Qaeda etc. there to be replayed all over again in conjunction with this latest inexplicable performance.

                      He  initially had the wrong thing in his head and is no longer quick enough on his feet to adjust. He got stuck and there was no Lieberman around to get him unstuck this time.  

                      Between McCain’s senior moments and Palin’s international ignorance,  how any patriot can seriously suggest we put our national interests into their hands is truly, TRULY, beyond me.  

                    • bob ewegen says:

                      Bluecat just discovered a previously unsuspected continent, EURPOE, and went on to bash McCain for alleged geographical ignorance.

                      How cool is that?

                      Skip the gotcha crap.   LB is dead on this time, obviously, McCain was being diplomatic rather than nettle a NATO ally.

                      What part of “the reporter turned the subject to Europe and asked McCain whether he would meet with Spanish Prime Minister JosГ© Luis RodrГ­guez Zapatero.” don’t the people who pretend McCain thought Espana was in SudAmerica understand?

                      Though I guess if you only know the continent of EURPOE, you probably think Spain isn’t part of it.

                      Stop being total idiots. If you have to stretch this far to bash McCain, something is very wrong with the left’s sleaze machine.

                      !Politicos son idiotas!

                    • parsingreality says:

                      I listened to the tape and tried to give McCain the benefit of the doubt and the best I could come up with is that he was befuddled. I mean, she gave him several opportunities to clarify but he failed miserably, just kept yammering about talking to friends and not enemies.

                      Remember the last time many suspected that a president was losing his memory?  And who was right?  

                    • BlueCat says:

                      Bobster,  but I challenge you to watch the video and tell me you are not witnessing a very shaky moment.  It’s no stretch.  McCain is out of touch on all the important economic issues and is clearly on the downward slope in terms of mental quickness.

                      And look at you, you sarcastic old curmudgeon, talking about “gotcha crap”.  You hand me gotcha crap all the time, usually based not on my words but on assumptions you freely make about what I think and when I respond, you just ignore it and wait for the next gotcha op. Maybe you’re losing it a little too, Bobster.

                      I do not await your non-response.  I know better than to expect one. If you do respond it won’t be  relevant to a damn thing I’ve actually written.    

                    • bob ewegen says:

                      are a shameless ideologue who sees only one side of the picture.  The point is that is you commit a fumbling but innocent mistake yourself, you are being shamelessly hypocritical to beat up on McCain for the same problem. In your case, it’s not a typing error, it’s a lapse of ethics.

                      How’s that for a non-response, spin boy?

                    • BlueCat says:

                      I KNEW this would be the ONE time you would respond to my response just because I pointed out that you never do. You couldn’t POSSIBLY let me be right about that.  You just HAD to “prove” me wrong. Congrats.

                      And sorry, a single typing error is not in any way equivalent to McCaine’s repeated fumbling and erratic decision making. There is not a damn thing wrong with my ethics or my reasoning and you, quite frankly, are just ticked off at being called for what you are; an old grump who can dish out the “gotcha” but can’t take it.

                      Quite the self important little legend in your own mind, Bob. Have a nice day.  

                    • DavidThi808 says:

                      They are insisting that it was not fumbling. So either they are unwilling to admit to imperfections (gee, how has that worked for Bush) or he was really confused.

              • Sir Robin says:

                I’m sorry you’re on the wrong side….kinda like a steak with no sizzle.

  2. Half Glass Full says:

    A 51-47 Obama edge in InTrade isn’t exactly a “surge.” (I’m an Obama supporter, btw.)

    Hmmm, wonder why Palin is cancelling appearances. Although what in the world was she doing in California in the first place? That’s a lost cause if ever there was one.

    Maybe she was having a $28.50 a plate fundraiser featuring Chuck Norris…

  3. ClubTwitty says:

    in OC, lots of GOP down that way and money.  

    Apparently its been rescheduled.  Still trying to confirm FL and OH

  4. Nancy L Baldwin says:

    Walks in the shadow’s of Sarah Palin – The Governor of Alaska.

  5. ClubTwitty says:

    that’s her excuse but it may be back on

    THE VILLAGES — Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin will make her first campaign to visit to Florida on Sunday.

    The campaign has gone back and forth on the visit and News 13 learned Wednesday that Palin was cancelling her appearance because of thunderstorms expected for the area, but on Thursday News 13 learned the trip is back on again.

    link

  6. No poll analysis up yet, but Nate, being an Obama supporter, threw up a Drudge light when he updated the boards.

    OH and VA both switch to “undecided” with a slight McCain lean, while CO switches back to light blue.  Nevada is a really light shade of pink, too.

  7. Insider Advantage now has Obama up 10 (51-41) in Colorado!

    Their previous poll was just after the GOP convention, 9/10, and showed Obama up 3 (similar to most other CO polls of the time); today’s poll result is a +7 bounce in a week!

  8. randog says:

    Wow, so today the stocks surge 400+ pts, so that means Bush/McCain get the credit now?  Because wasn’t it their fault when it dropped?  Now since the Great Depression 2 is over in one day, what will Obama fear you into thinking next?  People wake up and see who Obama for who he is, a fear speaking socialiat liar.  Earmarks = Obama received 10x more, but really who cares.  People this is the most critial election ever, decide between socialism and the private marketplace, decide between a voting record of 94 times to increase taxes.  Taxes only on $250,000 and above, are you going to seriously believe that?  Isn’t that why we left British rule?  Keep hailing king Omama!  This makes me sick that a person with no expeirence other than being a lawyer, and last time I looked lawyers were the scum of society?

    • DavidThi808 says:

      First, even if the economic crisis was over (and it’s not), the market does not operate well with these kinds of shocks. Regardless of what it does moving forward – Bush did a terrible job.

      Second, the biggest socalist action of the federal government EVER was Bush’s recent nationalization of Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and AIG. G.W. Bush is the socalist, Obama is the capitalist.

      Third, the Wall Street Journal (that pinko rag) has agreed that Obama only increases taxes on the rich while McCain gives the rich the vast majority of the tax cuts.

      What should worry you is that you are an idiot, not what Obama’s policies are.

      • BlueCat says:

        We’re all doing just great now.  Home values back up, unemployment back down, real wages up, foreclosures down, retail booming,  no more big bail outs on the horizon …  in some alternate universe where McCain is still a maverick and Wall Street responsibly and voluntarily regulates itself while looking out for the little guy.  And pigs sprout wings and fly, with or without lipstick.

    • bob ewegen says:

      at least, you’re admitting you’re sick!

      Good for you, recognizing your illness is the first step toward overcoming it.

      Next, try a 12-step program.

      I recommend Shills Anonymous.

    • Pam Bennett says:

      Bargain basement prices, short squeeze, Thursday before Friday. Whatever.

      I did notice oil was being played with again.  Probably the players wanted to see if they could pump the price up in the face of what should have been a down day.

  9. One Queer Dude says:

    or Colo. Spgs……..she has a limited appeal

  10. Something Is Brewing says:

    Sarah Palin is another Jesse Ventura.

    Just as Governor Ventura was Governor Palin is a political freak show. With Ventura the public tired quickly. Palin will soon meet that same political fate.  

  11. Yokel says:

    Personally, I think this can all be blamed on the speculators.  

  12. ClubTwitty says:

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/


    On the strength of an abundance of state and national polling, Barack Obama has retaken the lead in our Electoral College projection. Our model now forecasts him to win the election 61.2 percent of the time; it also gives him a slight, half-point advantage in the popular vote. Yesterday, Obama was projected to win the Electoral College just 45 percent of the time, so this is a rather dramatic move upward.

  13. freshair says:

    Palin’s comments at JeffCo showed no understanding of the impact of Wall Street’s upheaval on global economy and markets much less working class Americans – the impact on their life savings and retirement funds. No inkling! She came off glib and flippant. McCain has been an agent against regulation – a la Bush – and now demands regulation. Palin comes off as anti-pork when she couldn’t gobble enough as Wasilla Mayor or Alaska Gov. According to The Colorado Statesman Statesman (www.coloradostatesman.com), Palin only backed off more earmarks on July 2 when she appeared with Sen. Ted Stevens to tell Alaska citizen that the state was gonna go pork free. Vegetarian wasn’t what she had in mind until as she read the menu, “the handwriting is on the wall.” A few weeks later, Stevens was indicted on criminal charges.

    • Danny the Red (hair) says:

      by benwyskida, Sep. 18th, 2008 in News and Opinion

      So either John McCain has some early onset or Spain has joined our enemies list and possibly a new axis of evil. (Eat it Belgium!) Assuming the original maverick is totally lucid here, let’s take a minute to review John McCain’s top ten reasons for attacking Spain:

      10. 1992 Summer Games: WORST. OLYMPICS. EVER.

      9. Tapas.

      8. Spanish Government banned illegal downloads of Cindy’s favorite album, Global House Diva, Volume 2: Live in Ibiza.

      7. Immigrants flooding Texas and New Mexico. Can’t they manage their own border?

      6. I WAS A POW ILL ATTACK WHO I WANT. INCOMING.

      5. CompaГ±ero de cuarto de papa, the Spanish version of Daddy’s Roommate, rocketed to #4 on Spanish Amazon.

      4. Sarah Palin saw it from the window of her plane to Kuwait and she just didn’t like what she saw.

      3. “You rhyme the name of your country with my last name I’ll fuck you up.”

      2. Pesky rule requiring America to defend the territorial integrity of fellow NATO allies elitist, sexist.

      1. That trollop Penelope Cruz.

    • Pam Bennett says:

      Seems like old man Mccain has problems with economics AND geography.

  14. DavidThi808 says:

    It’s no longer McCain/Palin, it’s Palin/McCain. From ABC News (video there)

    Gov. Sarah Palin is now talking about “a Palin and McCain administration.”

    I’ve also heard her refer to McCain as “my running mate” — a term I don’t recall ever hearing a VP nominee use when discussing the guy at the top of the ticket.

    Maybe the fact that the crowds are leaving after she speaks, while McCain is speaking, is getting to her.

    • CO Democrat says:

      President in Name Only?

      • BlueCat says:

        That and his

        1) Popping off one day about being completely against bailing out AIG, the next day being for it.

        2) Being strongly against all regulatory measures weeks before being so strongly for them that he wants to create whole new agencies.

        3) Being against the old boys network when  the old boys are his closest advisers.

        4) Being caught popping off statements such as that Sarah Palin knows more about energy than “anyone else in America” because she lives in Alaska.  Kind of like how  her foreign policy expertise is obvious what with her being able to see the edge of Russia from her home state.  

        5) Being the only one who seems to need a 9/11 style commission to tell him what caused the present financial fiasco. And  

        6) When your big thing is your alleged superior foreign policy expertise, repeatedly placing Spain in the western hemisphere.  I guess he missed the whole Columbus sailing FROM there TO here thing in school, granted that was a VERY long time ago for him. Although that doesn’t account for whole Shia/Sunni/Iran/el Qaeda/who borders who mix up.

        A very large chunk of people past 70 suffer some degree of mental impairment but don’t worry; he’s got Palin as back up. And what’s really important is that he doesn’t seem at all elitist. He may wear $500 shoes with his wife by his side wearing a $300,000 outfit as they fly around in her private jet which she claims is the “only” way to get around her state (doesn’t everyone have one?) but clearly he’s just plain folks, just like you, and would love to invite you over for a beer. Sound familiar?

  15. indipol says:

    before promoting this or commenting on it?

    certainly there haven’t been any surges.  McCain’s stock has declined very moderately over the past three days and Obama’s stock has made a corresponding moderate rise.  Yes big volume, no, no big “surges” in price.  Definitely no BIG surges.

    • ClubTwitty says:

      Let’s not equivocate too much here. Over the course of the past several days, there has been a rather dramatic shift in this election toward Barack Obama. Our trendline estimate, which is engineered to be fairly conservative, thinks there has been roughly a 4-point swing toward Obama over the course of the past week.

      Changes of this velocity are unusual outside of the convention periods and the debates, especially in close elections. It took John McCain about 60 days and tens of millions of advertising dollars, for instance, to whittle Obama’s lead down from roughly 5 points at its peak in early June, to the roughly 1-point lead that Obama held heading into the conventions. Obama has swing the numbers that much in barely a week.

      Of course, we weren’t entirely outside of the convention period when McCain was leading by 2 or 3 points nationally, and probably at least half of this bounceback for Obama is merely the more-or-less inevitable consequence of McCain’s convention bounce ending.

      But the fact is that Obama is in a stronger position now than he was immediately before the conventions.

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