Presidential Election polls

from we have what is looking good. Yes we have to fight with everything we have, but Obama is in very good shape. And we in Colorado are important!!!

40 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. parsingreality says:

    If indeed McBush and Obama are neck and neck in the popular vote.

    OTH, that annoying electoral college gets in the way.  If we split the 99 – heck, I’ll callit 50-49, we find ourselves at 229 to 309.    

    • One Queer Dude says:

         I’m not sure about the spelling, but it’s the German word for that satisfaction one gets when someone else gets his or her comeuppance.

        That’s how many of us, from Al Gore on down, will feel in Nov. when Barack wins the electoral vote even though he may lose the popular vote!

      • CO Democrat says:

        Comeuppance would imply some sort of revenge or poetic justice.  I think it refers to just wanting to see someone fail and getting satisfaction regardless of what they did.  

  2. Precinct854 says:

    I’m a cautious guy.  I would want to wait and see what polls are saying a week after the Republican convention before deciding that they’d settled out to a trend.  

    The most interesting result on the map right now is North Carolina.  As in I don’t know if I quite believe it yet.  I know the reasons it should be going that way (energized blacks, a state that has trended somewhat more Democratic), but could this just be voters flirting with the idea in a poll rather than seriously considering it.  Like how in past years NJ has looked close for a while and then closed ranks to vote Democratic.  

    But both Florida and Ohio being close should be worrying to the Republicans.  I’m not surprised that things remain tight in those two states or Colorado.

  3. BlueCat says:

    also has Obama ahead again both with and without toss-ups, meaning one map puts toss ups in one column or the other with even a tiny insignificant lead. Fingers crossed of course and knowing that the right has decided that if Obama doesn’t have a huge lead he’s behind.  

    McCain apparently isn’t ever behind due to anything as meaningless as actually BEING behind. Unless they want to talk about how his being behind is great because he’s a come from behind guy. It’s hard to keep their spin straight. I leave that to Haners and LB.

    • brio says:

      The Real Clear Politics “no leaner map” (which is interesting, thanks for the tip) gives Obama the edge 273 to 265.  However, in two of the states Obama is less than 0.5% ahead.  If Colorado flipped, McCain wins.  If New Hampshire flips, its 269 – 269.  That’s about as clear an example of a statistical dead heat as a person could find.  Unless the Bradley effect has disappeared (wouldn’t that be nice), factoring it in would put McCain ahead at this stage.

      I agree with a poster above that the polls will be more telling in a week, but right now it’s looking like a tossup.

      • DavidThi808 says:

        Although I’m not quite as worried for a number of reasons:

        1) This is a very good point in time for McCain – we just came off the RNC.

        2) The polls assume that the voter profile will match ’04. And it is the best assumption to make. But if Obama does pull in boatloads more young & African-American voters, that changes things a lot.

        3) When you look at what’s within 5%, ie what could be flipped, it’s a lot more McCain states that could go Obama than Obama ones that could go McCain.

        It’s definitely going to be a nail-biter for the next 60 days.

      • redstateblues says:

        means the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives will have the pleasure of installing President Obama after the Electoral College meets.

        If that happened I would laugh my wadhams off.

        • Dabee47 says:

          If there was a tie, it wouldn’t go to a straight up or down vote.  Every state would have a vote and the winner would need a majority of states, not a majority of members of congress.

          Of course, Dems have a majority in 27 states, repubs in 21, 2 that are evenly split.

          But what do you do if you’re from, say, North or South Dakota.  Both are likely to go to McCain in the election, but both have Dem representatives.  Do they vote for Obama because they’re Dems or McCain because their constituents want him as President?

          Same is true of Mike Castle in Delaware.  Republican rep in a very blue state.

          And what would Arizona and Kansas do?  They’re evenly split between Dem and Repubs.

          Then there’s Michigan, likely an Obama state with it’s majority of Repub members.

          And Mississippi, a likely McCain victory with a majority of Dem reps.

          Anyway, if there was a tie, all hell could break loose.  Would some reps like Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and Earl Pomeroy be willing to commit potential political suicide to ensure a President Obama?  Who would use their judgment or follow the will of their constituents?

          Ooooh…tasty political drama…  😛

  4. Danny the Red (hair) says:

    Because Colorado is a low cost (relatively) media market we are going to get pounded with ads.

    • One Queer Dude says:

      What do you mean, “we are going to”?  We already are being pounded with their ads.

      • redstateblues says:

        It’s almost like the slow economy is directly related to the fact that companies can’t get any ad time on TV.

        I would really like to see a breakdown of consumer ads versus political ads. During the evening news it’s got to be close to 60% political.

  5. l'angelomisterioso says:

    Since this site recently reported on the sudden departure of the Elections chief I’m surprised you didn’t pick up on this from the Brad Blog:

    Holly Lowder Had Taken Up Residence With Contractor Who Provided Registration Roll Software to the State.

    Given that it’s proven that the repubs have no qualms about voter caging and other electoral manipulation techniques you’d think this would create something of a stir especially when everyone is calling Colorado a swing state.

  6. jericho says:

    Yes we have to fight with everything we have, but Obama is in very good shape. And we in Colorado are important!!!

    Isn’t this site purportedly non-partisan? Oh wait, I guess the bloom was off that rose long ago.

    I don’t know about other Rs, but I think I’m pretty much done with this site. It used to be about “Colorado Politics”, but now it’s just “DailyKos -Colorado edition”

    Maybe I’ll be back later, but until then, Adios.

  7. GOPpundit says:

    Really David? Why don’t you post the last three presidential cycles of maps and THEN try to make the case for this map. lol

  8. Kennerly says:

    I doubt how sound this poll is quite quickly seeing that Arizona is not strongly in Republican hands. I know that Arizona was not too pleased with McCain as a Senator, but come on! He’s not gonna lose his home state. It’s not at all in contention. CO is very much a toss up but it is silly to not almost guarantee the majority of the flyover states to McCain. N Dakota, Montana, Nevada, and Virginia haven’t voted blue since 1964, and they don’t look to start now. S Carolina has been red since 1976 and McCain more than likely will take them.

    I’d be interested to see how the polls were conducted.

    • Buckshot says:

      Pollster takes a fairly conservative approach on what they call “strong” (dark red or blue). However, they also provide the poll averages (click on the link David provided).

      Most of the pink states will go to McCain (with the possible exceptions of MO and IN) and the three light blue states will go to Obama.

      If Obama picks up one of the large yellow (toss up) states (e.g. Ohio:  Obama 44.7, McCain 42.8), or a few of the smaller yellow states (e.g., Colorado: Obama 44.7, McCain 42.9, Montana:  Obama 48.3, McCain 45.2) , he’ll win in the electoral college.

  9. Ray Springfield says:

    Obama still has to win in places that go red most of the time in order to win.

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