CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
September 06, 2008 10:04 PM UTC
40 Comments
If indeed McBush and Obama are neck and neck in the popular vote.
OTH, that annoying electoral college gets in the way. If we split the 99 – heck, I’ll callit 50-49, we find ourselves at 229 to 309.
I’m not sure about the spelling, but it’s the German word for that satisfaction one gets when someone else gets his or her comeuppance.
That’s how many of us, from Al Gore on down, will feel in Nov. when Barack wins the electoral vote even though he may lose the popular vote!
Comeuppance would imply some sort of revenge or poetic justice. I think it refers to just wanting to see someone fail and getting satisfaction regardless of what they did.
I’m a cautious guy. I would want to wait and see what polls are saying a week after the Republican convention before deciding that they’d settled out to a trend.
The most interesting result on the map right now is North Carolina. As in I don’t know if I quite believe it yet. I know the reasons it should be going that way (energized blacks, a state that has trended somewhat more Democratic), but could this just be voters flirting with the idea in a poll rather than seriously considering it. Like how in past years NJ has looked close for a while and then closed ranks to vote Democratic.
But both Florida and Ohio being close should be worrying to the Republicans. I’m not surprised that things remain tight in those two states or Colorado.
And Obama only has to win one of those two; McBush needs both just to stay in the game.
also has Obama ahead again both with and without toss-ups, meaning one map puts toss ups in one column or the other with even a tiny insignificant lead. Fingers crossed of course and knowing that the right has decided that if Obama doesn’t have a huge lead he’s behind.
McCain apparently isn’t ever behind due to anything as meaningless as actually BEING behind. Unless they want to talk about how his being behind is great because he’s a come from behind guy. It’s hard to keep their spin straight. I leave that to Haners and LB.
The Real Clear Politics “no leaner map” (which is interesting, thanks for the tip) gives Obama the edge 273 to 265. However, in two of the states Obama is less than 0.5% ahead. If Colorado flipped, McCain wins. If New Hampshire flips, its 269 – 269. That’s about as clear an example of a statistical dead heat as a person could find. Unless the Bradley effect has disappeared (wouldn’t that be nice), factoring it in would put McCain ahead at this stage.
I agree with a poster above that the polls will be more telling in a week, but right now it’s looking like a tossup.
Although I’m not quite as worried for a number of reasons:
1) This is a very good point in time for McCain – we just came off the RNC.
2) The polls assume that the voter profile will match ’04. And it is the best assumption to make. But if Obama does pull in boatloads more young & African-American voters, that changes things a lot.
3) When you look at what’s within 5%, ie what could be flipped, it’s a lot more McCain states that could go Obama than Obama ones that could go McCain.
It’s definitely going to be a nail-biter for the next 60 days.
means the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives will have the pleasure of installing President Obama after the Electoral College meets.
If that happened I would laugh my wadhams off.
If there was a tie, it wouldn’t go to a straight up or down vote. Every state would have a vote and the winner would need a majority of states, not a majority of members of congress.
Of course, Dems have a majority in 27 states, repubs in 21, 2 that are evenly split.
But what do you do if you’re from, say, North or South Dakota. Both are likely to go to McCain in the election, but both have Dem representatives. Do they vote for Obama because they’re Dems or McCain because their constituents want him as President?
Same is true of Mike Castle in Delaware. Republican rep in a very blue state.
And what would Arizona and Kansas do? They’re evenly split between Dem and Repubs.
Then there’s Michigan, likely an Obama state with it’s majority of Repub members.
And Mississippi, a likely McCain victory with a majority of Dem reps.
Anyway, if there was a tie, all hell could break loose. Would some reps like Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and Earl Pomeroy be willing to commit potential political suicide to ensure a President Obama? Who would use their judgment or follow the will of their constituents?
Ooooh…tasty political drama… 😛
n/t
I assume that it would be with the current congress and not the newly elected one, no?
It would be with the current Congress, since the new one will not be sworn in until after Inauguration Day. I think. I’m too tired to research right now.
Thats what I thought, but I couldnt be sure.
it would be the next congress. Congress is sworn in on January 3rd and the Electoral votes are counted January 6th. The President isn’t sworn in until January 20th.
Ahhh…the many generally useless facts running though the head of a PoliSci grad student… 😛
That might mean it could be even more heavily slanted toward the Democrats.
Because Colorado is a low cost (relatively) media market we are going to get pounded with ads.
What do you mean, “we are going to”? We already are being pounded with their ads.
It’s almost like the slow economy is directly related to the fact that companies can’t get any ad time on TV.
I would really like to see a breakdown of consumer ads versus political ads. During the evening news it’s got to be close to 60% political.
Since this site recently reported on the sudden departure of the Elections chief I’m surprised you didn’t pick up on this from the Brad Blog:
Holly Lowder Had Taken Up Residence With Contractor Who Provided Registration Roll Software to the State.
http://www.bradblog.com/
Given that it’s proven that the repubs have no qualms about voter caging and other electoral manipulation techniques you’d think this would create something of a stir especially when everyone is calling Colorado a swing state.
you didn’t notice that The Rocky had the story long before the Brad Blog “reported” it. No one’s ignoring it.
Just saying, they’re the ones that had the story and should be credited. It’s not like blogs are ferreting out gross malfeasance and the mainstream press (or Pols) is ignoring it, as the original post suggested.
In any case, it’s not good news for Coffman or Colorado voters.
Isn’t this site purportedly non-partisan? Oh wait, I guess the bloom was off that rose long ago.
I don’t know about other Rs, but I think I’m pretty much done with this site. It used to be about “Colorado Politics”, but now it’s just “DailyKos -Colorado edition”
Maybe I’ll be back later, but until then, Adios.
Oh, I guess you won’t get my snarky comment.
…don’t be a stranger!
who isn’t and has no obligation to be non-partisan
Over and over, they are pissed off that those of us who hang out here are predominently liberal. Who knows why? Pols, the hosts, never has claimed balance (prolly conflated Faux News and Pols) or objectivity.
It’s a logical mystery to me why they expect otherwise.
Nor has it ever claimed to be. It’s all-partisan. Some of us support Obama, some support the “wrinkly old white guy.” But we all have strong opinions.
Why on eart would someone uninterested in politics come here?
You have your posters that post stuff for McCain and Schaffer and even argue for Lamborn, who has less power in congress than damn near anyone. You don’t see us bitching and moaning. But hey, I guess if a Republican doesn’t get their way, they take their ball and go home. You guys are bad winners and bad losers and you have no heart.
posters that post stuff for Schaffer? You do?
Honestly, I can’t recall anything posted here that puts Schaffer in a good light since April or May, except maybe the campaign’s internal poll that showed him not losing as badly as other, reputable polls.
That ship has sailed.
I’m talking about the Conservatives who post their stuff for their side. Actually, there’s nothing pro-Schaffer, it’s just anti-Udall, because the Republicans have NOTHING positive to say. They just attack the other side.
Schaffer & Musgrave appear to get no love even from the Republicans. That can’t be good for them.
…they have NOTHING. Nothing to run on. No positive message. Nothing that makes people want to vote for them. All they can do is attack their opponents.
Really David? Why don’t you post the last three presidential cycles of maps and THEN try to make the case for this map. lol
The averaging gives a very accurate number. You and/or I may not like the numbers, but they are probably a very good indicator of where e are.
As to the last 3 cycles – pollster wasn’t around back then.
I doubt how sound this poll is quite quickly seeing that Arizona is not strongly in Republican hands. I know that Arizona was not too pleased with McCain as a Senator, but come on! He’s not gonna lose his home state. It’s not at all in contention. CO is very much a toss up but it is silly to not almost guarantee the majority of the flyover states to McCain. N Dakota, Montana, Nevada, and Virginia haven’t voted blue since 1964, and they don’t look to start now. S Carolina has been red since 1976 and McCain more than likely will take them.
I’d be interested to see how the polls were conducted.
Pollster takes a fairly conservative approach on what they call “strong” (dark red or blue). However, they also provide the poll averages (click on the link David provided).
Most of the pink states will go to McCain (with the possible exceptions of MO and IN) and the three light blue states will go to Obama.
If Obama picks up one of the large yellow (toss up) states (e.g. Ohio: Obama 44.7, McCain 42.8), or a few of the smaller yellow states (e.g., Colorado: Obama 44.7, McCain 42.9, Montana: Obama 48.3, McCain 45.2) , he’ll win in the electoral college.
Obama still has to win in places that go red most of the time in order to win.