August 29, 2008 11:59 PM UTC

McCain's Western Worries

• 2 Comments
• by: Go Blue

( – promoted by Colorado Pols)

Make no mistake about it the West is very much in play and with Hispanic voters making a clean break for Obama, McCain has a lot to worry about. In a recent poll of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, Obama leads McCain by 45 points among Hispanic voters.

Barack Obama holds a commanding lead among Hispanics in the southwest. The presumptive Democratic nominee leads John McCain by 45 points in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, according to the latest Democracy Corps survey of Hispanic voters.[1]

Just a few months ago, analysts were questioning whether Obama had a Latino problem, given the success of Hillary Clinton among Hispanics during the primaries. Today, Obama has a chance to perform better among Hispanic voters than any Democratic presidential candidate in recent history. In the four southwestern states, he is running an average 10 points ahead of John Kerry’s share of the vote four years ago, while McCain receives only a bare majority of Bush’s 2004 Latino vote.

Obama has consolidated the Democratic Hispanic vote in a way that he has yet to do among non-Hispanic white voters. Nationally, Obama runs 3 points below the generic Democratic presidential vote among white voters, but among Latinos his vote effectively matches the generic preference for a Democrat.[2] He also holds a nearly 2-1 lead among independent Hispanics.

Democracy Corps breaks down the polling with greater detail on the trend lines, why Obama’s favorability is rising while McCain’s is declining within the Hispanic community, and how each candidate is viewed on the issues of the economy and health care. As noted in numerous other diaries these two issues of the economy and health care seem to be a universal problem for McCain and according to this most recent poll it’s abundantly apparent within the Hispanic community in the West.

Si se puede!