What we have here in the heart of CD-2land is thousands of bytes of courier type posing as idle speculation on the state of the Dem primary. What we don’t have is any public and/or credible, recent polling data on the state of this race.
In the absence of real data we have a lot of hope posing as strong certaintyopinion oozing from Pols commenters. It’s a two-way race, it’s a three-way race, it’s a one-woman race.
Fact is, nobody has any idea where this race is at. Nobody, that is, that has not seen up-to-the-minute credible polling results. So does such polling data exist?
If so, nobody is publicizing it. About a decade ago Jared leaked some internal polling reflecting well on him. Since then? Silence. This idle speculator believes that if Jared had polling results from today that still held good news for him:
a) he’d be leaking them like they were in a rusty bucket
b) he wouldn’t be trotting out enviro endorsements at the last second
c) he wouldn’t be running KBCO (ie, Boulder) radio ads slying targeting Will.
That’s me, but I’m speculating like everybody else. Jared doesn’t leak his poll results to me. Will and Joan are spending their money more wisely. The local papers and news channels are keeping their money to pay Style columnists.
If anybody can convince us that they have something on this race other than their own (biased) speculation, I’m all eyes.
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But I’m not telling so we can do this the old fashioned way, watching the returns come in on Tuesday evening (or Thursday in the case of Boulder County if Hillary Hall is her normal “stellar” self.)
ps – Just kidding about knowing. But doesn’t this make it more fun 🙂
I remember CD-7 getting polled during the primary in 2006. An with this being such a high-profile primary you’d think the media would be polling on it.
especially with all the polling going on in Colorado for the Senate and Obama-McCain races, you’d think the DNA would’ve done a poll or piggy-backed on one of those. Same goes for the 5th and 6th primaries.
weeks ago? It’s a little too late for polling considering the election is on Tuesday. My opinion? It is a three-way race. Someone would be leaking a poll here if it showed them ahead. Every campaign does internal polling. I don’t care if you’re running for Congress or City Council. Considering the ad spending by all three candidates down the stretch, it seems like they’re polling neck-and-neck…and-neck.
If you’re ahead but don’t want voters relaxing and figuring they aren’t needed – then you don’t release.
And if you’re a ways behind you don’t want to discourage your supporters by telling them that’s a long shot, or impossible.
This comes even more into play with a 3-way race where many voters are picking between 2 favorites and the polls could make them go for the one with the better odds.
for me at least
I know the campaigns have been polling, and they’re not releasing for reasons only the campaigns themselves know.
My suspicion is that Jared’s numbers haven’t moved up the way that the campaign had hoped from the ads, which would explain the continuing cash flow into the campaign. But that’s not a poll, it’s just speculation.
Why the papers haven’t polled is a mystery, though.
…why you hatin’ on KBCO? I know many who listen to that station who don’t live in Boulder. They’re not Boulderites, but they are Dems. Wait a minute…. maybe that’s why Polis is using KBCO? Nah, couldn’t be.