CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
See Full Big Line
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
July 24, 2008 08:20 PM UTC
82 Comments
There are some big shifts from the same poll released just a month ago.
Here’s a link to the Quinnipiac release, which includes detailed analysis on the poll (and First Lady preferences!).
Support is basically flipped among men and women; Obama wins Hispanics; and, the older you are, the more you like McCain:
Bush is slightly more popular in Colorado than in the other three battleground states polled:
You can follow the link to see the First Lady ratings. Suffice it to say, they’re pretty much as you’d expect, splitting strongly between the sexes.
Three and a half?
I feel like this presidential race has been going on for years now. (What’s that? It has?)
The 2012 race starts in four months!
Candidates have already laid the ground work for ’12: Hillary if McCain wins and both Huckabee and Romney if Obama wins
Hillary’s given up completely on ’08….
…that combined with the disappointment amongst the Obama True Believers over his veering towards the ideological middle since nailing down the nomination.
At least with HRC, she never pretended to be a hard left winger only to repackage herself as a centrist. She ran down the middle all along.
If the Dems have an energy policy, they have failed to articulate it where it matters. Airlines are going into bankrupcy; gas is sky high and the price of oil is fueling inflation…Bush lifts the ban on off shore drilling, and the price of a barrel of oil starts to come down….even I can see the connection….
The dems can not blather about the environment. Obama and Udall have to have a well thought out plan which makes sense…today…not next year…..being able to do long term planning is a conceit of the rich…
people are hurting today…really hurting…and scared…the dems are doing a victory lap and it is insulting to people who are suddenly caught in a bad fix….
1. A lot of people can’t afford to fly at any price
2. They need to raise their fares and stop counting on stupid nickel nd dime fees as the source of their profit margin
3. The credit card companies are responding to the credit crunch by increasing holdbacks, thereby reducing the airlines’ liquid cash.
The Democrats have articulated a plan to lower gas prices in the short term that might actually work (though it is doubtful that it will do much). The Republicans have articulated a plan that will work never. Not ever.
Much to the dismay of people who are hurting, there are actually some problems that can’t be fixed overnight.
And, I don’t have a clue what the specifics of the democratic energy plan are…….renewables, conservations, blah blah…..
Energy speculation is part of the equation and it is impacted immediately by policy decisions…such as promoting domestic drilling….dems are against that….repubs are for it……
There is a real flip flop occurring in this election…Obama is now the foreign policy expert….and McCain is going to reap the benefits of a bad economy…
people who are hurting are going to vote Republican..and your elitist attitude that “much to the dismay of people who are hurting” is exactly the “elitist” attitude which pisses the average voter, like me, off.
Here are the things the Democrats have been up to, despite a severe lack of media coverage:
* Releasing 10% of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (after passing legislation last month to suspend purchases, which has let to larger than expected supplies and has driven the price of oil down over $20/bbl)
* Expanding drilling in Alaska’s NPR-A
* Dropping or eliminating the tariff on Brazilian sugar cane ethanol
* Cracking down on speculation (a major source of the price hike)
* Cracking down on price gouging
* Mandating that oil companies use the 68,000,000 acres of leases they already have (which includes over 80% of the available oil on public land)
* A responsible exit from Iraq, as the military operations in Iraq have caused the military (already the largest single consumer of oil in the world) to use vastly more oil
Some of this legislation has already passed, but much of it is being blocked by the Republicans who are much more interested in having a winning political issue than in having short-term relief for families.
If you think it’s elitist to acknowledge that people are hurting (my family included) then I suggest that you don’t know what the word elitist means.
I am not arguing that the dems don’t have a plan…I am arguing that it is esoteric; blocked in Congress,…etc.etc.etc.and I can’t figure out how or when it will help….
the repubs have a simple plan, easy to understand, which apparently had immediate impact and it is: DRILL
The following comment is the one I found elitist:
“Much to the dismay of people who are hurting, there are actually some problems that can’t be fixed overnight.”
And I said, long-term planning is a conceit of the rich…and I meant it…my immediate response to your comment was the hell they can’t …..dump the dems and overnight the price of oil will go down and we will drill all over the place…
ThillyWabbit, are you the ThillyWabbit who came after Jimmy Carter when he was in a boat (!) and the ridicule helped to sink his reelection……
Carter said that we needed long-term solutions…but his attitude was patronizing…and belittling towards people who were in a bad bind….as my family was at the time…
Whatever slight price reduction that results from increased drilling is 10-15 years off. We’re talking a penny a gallon cheaper gas in 2025. There aren’t enough drills nor enough rigs nor enough oil to ramp up production any faster.
Just saying “drill” does not magically make more oil appear. You’re being fooled by Republicans.
has had an immediate effect on oil prices by taming speculation.
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc.
But voters seem to be falling for it.
Kos has the results of a survey up that seem to refute all the Dem handwringing on GOP oil schemes.
The majority of those polled say that drilling will have little to no effect on oil prices.
One of the most interesting results on the Quinnipiac poll is the precisely even split between which candidate can best help with energy prices, falling 33 for McCain, 33 for Obama and 34 undecided. The Republicans’ more aggressive “drill now, drill often” message might be cutting through the clutter, though, because at least it sounds like action.
This is yet another example of media failure. If the MSM was actually competent, it would be telling the story of ANWAR and offshore drilling in terms of the new “gushers” as a percentage of current or, better, projected demand. For example, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data indicates that 1.9 to 4.3 billion barrels of oil could be extracted from ANWAR over 12 years (see: http://www.eia.doe.gov/ ). In the context-free world of the MSM that sounds like allot. But it isn’t. In 2007, according to the EIA, the US consumed 7.6 billion barrels of oil. Thus, even on the most optimistic estimate all of the recoverable oil under ANWAR amounts to only 57% of the oil consumed in the US in 2007. So even given steady demand and high-end estimates of supply, all the oil in ANWAR would last for about 7 months. Why the MSM can’t do the research and simple arithmetic needed to point this out is beyond me. It seems to me that even the lowest of low information voters can figure out the difference between “big” and “little.”
Q-Poll is pretty good…
Not sure of their record here in Colorado, but they’re very reputable for their traditional Eastern stomping grounds.
Of course, this poll conflicts with the Rasmussen poll just posted; average them together and we’re still looking at a narrow Obama lead, but Colorado’s definitely showing its battleground status.
for the disparity between the two polls, and the wild swings from week to week we’ve been seeing (two Ohio polls this week had Obama up by 9 and down by 10) … these polls are showing very low undecideds, and that’s not my experience talking with regular folks. My impression is, people are very conflicted between the two candidates and want to put off making a decision.
I wonder how the pressure on leaners and prior questions (Do you support leaving Iraq? vs. Do you think drilling is the answer to high gas prices?) are influencing the results, making voters sound more firml than they are and easily moving, depending on that day’s news or whether respondents just filled up. Just a thought.
wake me up in October. A July poll here means nothing. Day after Obama’s convention speech he’ll have a 10-point lead in the same poll.
Aside from that, while Q isn’t the worst pollster out there it certainly hasn’t been the best, either, and I wouldn’t give it two ounces of cred to figure out how to handicap a western mountain state.
People without home phone are not polled – many of the people under 35.
The youth vote – we just don’t know how many are coming out.
The white vote – many of you will get in the booth and just can not bring yourself to vote for a Black man, even though publicly you say you can.
The women’s vote – many Hillary woman are still mad and intend on staying that way.
This election is a test. A test of race, a test of generations and even a test of gender. A test of America.
So, indipol you are correct, I will look at polling in Oct.
As to the poll.
I think the the GOP “oil rig in every backyard” energy policy is having some effect.
If I was in the GOP I’d keep hammering the point.
I know its bad policy and won’t help prices, but it is action and it looks like the GOP is doing something.
The D’s have to find a counter message on this issue. Energy is the only issue that GOP messaging is better on this election.
commissioned poll that shows McCain valiantly in front. I’m shocked I tell ya.
Anyone know who qualifies as a “likely” voter. Do you have to be a registered Republican?
Wall Street Journal subscribers? Most of them vote.
for the convicted felons in their ranks!
As more and more people move away from having home phones, a larger segment of the population is not even being considered in polls. For example I am a 35-55 white male which puts me in one of the higher voting demographics, but I do not have a home phone so I will not be polled.
Also those people who do have home phones are now more likely to have privacy measures put on their phone line making it more difficult for polling companies to ID them.
There are also several what I call “dishonest answers” this year. Examples:
“Does Obama’s skin color make you more or less likely to vote form him?” Almost no one will admit to as pollster that it makes them less likely, but there is an unknown quanity of people who do actually feel that way
“Is John McCain too old to be president?” Again very few will say they think he is over the hill, but an unknown number more do believe it.
“Do you support the President?” There is a significant portion of the population who would view a “No” response as un-American and would not be willing to voice it.
The list goes on, but those are a few examples.
I think some of this is due to Obama & Udall’s run to the center. In their effort to show that they are not much different from their opponent, they have convinced many voters that… they aren’t much different from their opponent.
the Rasmussen poll released yesterday had Obama moving from dead even to a 7-point lead over the last month.
Is hurting him in Boulder.
How many electoral votes does Boulder have again?
…uh, maybe Berkley & Madison.
Seriously, I think it hurts, not so much for the specific policy positions in Obama’s case as the fact that it makes him look like just another politician.
In Udall’s case I do think it hurt him amoung his base, which is a large part of the people who actually have an opinion right now. But most of those people will probably hold their nose and vote for him.
But as others have said here, it’s way too early to worry too much about this.
why do you keep worrying about it?
Colorado is a battleground state and anyone who takes it for granted, or who toys with the idea of letting Schaffer or McCain win this state should think about this.
Dobson is ready to endorse McCain if he Doobie gets a say in who is appointed to the Supreme Court. Think real hard and deep about that.
I am getting damn tired of this guy Obama being President. He such a humorless ____! I want change, so I am voting for that feisty white-haired guy from Phoenix.
are you standing on your porch in black socks and sandals with a pair of bermuda shorts pulled up to your navel yelling at the paper boy to get off your lawn when you’re not blogging?
Yep McCain’s the candidate for you.
You always use the great images first.
Maybe that’s why you on the bad dude blogger list and I’ve got my nose pressed against the window.
Why don’t you ever post good news for Republicans or bad news for Democrats?? There you go again!! Want some cheese with that whine? You know a dem’s lying because his lips are moving!! Nurse Ratched, where’s my thorazine?
Thanks for making that point before I could.
I can always count on you!
A week ago the Coloradopolsters were debating the future color of the oval office drapes. Now they are saying that the Washington Post conducted an inaccurate poll.
Senator Obama is dropping faster than Michael Dukakis. Does anyone out there remember him? The guy who was up 18 in August and lost in a landslide
This will be an incredibly close election. If you think otherwise, you’ve got another thing coming.
I’m definitely not a McCain supporter, and I’m not overtly supporting Obama, but this will be a fight.
Colorado hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Shelp was a pup.
It is going to be really really tough for Obama to carry Colorado. It would have to be a landslide year for that to happen.
Clinton carried the state and yep it was a landslide year (1992). The electorate is a-changing here. The GOP used to be able to count on a significant portion of the Unaffiliated vote. Higher percetnages of that block are tracking Dem now.
That does not mean the GOP does not have their solid bases of support in the usual places, it just means the places that are typically swing vote places are swinging Dem this yar.
Good points. I didn’t remember Clinton winning
You Liberals are going to burst a blood vessel!
I love it when McCain is winning Liberal comments are, “I don’t put much stock in polls”, “They polled old people”, “How many months away are we from the election.”, “July polls mean nothing”.
When Obama was leading in the polls you were all dancing. Liberals just can’t take the truth.
This is the down hill slide for Barak Hussein Obama. Like I said, July in the last election Kerry led Bush by 10 points.
People need a Leader like McCain not a Dreamer Like Obama. Life is tough and dreaming will not get you through.
Aristotle thank you for recognizing me… I may get you to for vote for McCain Yet!
Isn’t gloating one of the seven sins?
Just telling the truth.
It’s obviously much easier for you to repeat the (mc)same crap than it is for you to read my posts debunking your statements.
Gee, can’t you say something than that same crap?
Bush is a nightmare, McCain will continue the nightmare.
Wake up before McCain drives the bus off the cliff.
Obama is not Presidential Material…I have reservations about McCain on how conservative he really is but he is a millon times better than a president with a Muslim name – Barak Hussein Obama.
Oooo, am I racists because I said that, Yes because I believe Obama when he said, From Audacity of Hope: ‘I will stand with the Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction.’
Obama is the nighmare.
that quote in context?
I’ve not read the book, but I can certainly speculate.
Probably something like this: “If the political winds shift in an ugly direction, and bigots begin targetting Muslims in the United States with discrimination and violence based on their religion, I will stand with the Muslims.”
McCain hasn’t said that, but I think he is the type of person who would also.
You really need to read the book. Your scenario is not correct.
If Danny the Red (hair)’s summary below is correct, then I’d say my speculation was pretty much spot on.
For your re-reading pleasure, I’ll post his comment and then my own:
Obama’s words:
“‘…they need specific assurances that their citizenship really means something, that America has learned the right lessons from the Japanese internments during World War II, and that I will stand with them should the political winds shift in an ugly direction.'”
My speculation of Obama’s comments and their context:
“If the political winds shift in an ugly direction, and bigots begin targetting Muslims in the United States with discrimination and violence based on their religion, I will stand with the Muslims.”
Granted, his words are much better than my own, but they relay pretty much the same sentiment.
or just you
Here is the accurate and more complete quote:
Do you hate the Japaneese too? How about other people who came from countries the US fought wars with like vietnameese Americans, German Americans, Italian Americans, spanish americans, mexican americans, British americans, native americans?
“Are all conservatives racists?
or just you…”
They all are. Well, maybe not all of them, but a good number of them are.
You’re not, based on your posts, a racist.
You haven’t said you won’t vote for Obama because of his ethnicity.
You said you won’t vote for him because of his Muslim heritage.
That’s called bigotry.
And it’s just as bad as racism.
Mrs. Duke (just a guess at SJintheknow’s identity) said:
She didn’t say what he BELIEVED. If the objection was soley on faith, it would be that he believed in Islam.
Instead she attacked who he IS. Given that she has quoted incomplete lines from Dreams of my father (a book that I recommend to everyone), where Obama comes to grip with his absent father and his multi racial extended family, to imply that Obama is some sort of blame whitey type, indicates she is a racist.
I agree she is also bigoted against Muslims too.
that are not all cut from the same cloth? I do. So, I am surprised that Republicans on this blog believe that McCain has a shot. My republican friends, from across the nation, have said they believe Barack will win. They don’t agree with his politics, but they agree he is the best choice for America.
John McCain is truly an embarrassment and I even liked him 2000.
I liked him calling out the religious right.
I was much more moderate then (I was neck deep in international banking–anyone to the left of GHW Bush was Mao–hard to be a liberal).
George Bush brought me back to my liberal youth–Thanks George.
It’s going to be a close election. If you want anecdotal evidence, I was having a discussion with one of the most powerful Dems in the city on Wednesday. He’s a good friend, and we do a lot of charity work together.
He’s nervous about some of Obama’s policies, especially his free-market oppositions, but he’s a supporter. Not the “HE’S THE MESSIAH! HE’S THE MESSIAH!” kind of fawning we’re seeing here, but a supporter nonetheless.
He’s also nervous about Obama’s chances in a general because he (Obama) is so very far to the left.
Most of the R’s I talk to know we’re in for it, congress-wise, but feel reasonably sure that we can keep the White House. Many aren’t happy with McCain, but compare that to the fairly open rebellion that still exists among the supporters of the initially presumed next POTUS, HRC.
I think it’s going to be pretty close, but if Obama steps in it, which he’s prone to do off the teleprompter, or if the Republicans have some damaging video they are waiting to drop in October (also fairly likely), McCain’s going to win.
I’m a little torn. I’d almost rather see 4 years under Obama and a Dem Congress in order to send ideas like socialized medicine, bad trade policies, higher taxes and an appeasement-based foreign policy will off to the wilderness for 20 years or so.
I’m resentful that I’m seemingly not allowed to philosophically oppose Sen. Obama on a purely policy-based basis without being called a racist. I could care less what his fucking middle name is, or if he’s a Muslim (he’s not), but I have a right to believe what I want in terms of policy. Opposing viewpoints are what create a sensible middle, and that’s what the founding fathers intended.
Now, common sense is much closer to my viewpoint that Senator Obama’s, but I respect his right to believe whatever he’d like.
I’m just not going to vote for him.
Why does McCain suddenly have to become an “embarrassment” simply because he’s running against your candidate? For all the drivel I see here about ‘hateful’ Republicans, I sure see a lot of venom communicating that point.
Obama’s not an embarassment – he’s an inspiration. But he’s not in line with what I want to see in a President.
McCain doesn’t even have North Dakota in the bag.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
If North Dakota is in play, then that is a VERY bad sign for McCain’s campaign.
Hey, it does not matter if some people do not vote for McCain… that happens. What matters is if the polls are correct and McCain remains in the lead in enough states he wins.
Winning is what matters.
If McCain is not leading in ND just wait it takes time for people to get interested in the election.
people are not paying attention then the news in this poll (the North Dakota one) should be even more troubling to McCain. People who are not paying attention tend to go with their “default” position…ie: “I always vote for the Republican/Democrat, so that is how I will answer.” As it is, these people who are not paying attention are at least willing to consider voting for Obama.
A Democrat has not carried North Dakota since 1964…and a democrat has only carried it five times in the past 100 years (Wilson and FDR each carried it twice and Johnson carried it once ’64).
It’s not as though Barr and Nader will receive a combined 14% of the vote…except maybe in Alaska and Georgia (and even then, I’m skeptical).
What is interesting about the polls you keep pointing to as McCain “winning” simply show him at the same numbers with Obama moving up and down. Some of it is statistical noise, some of it is that those on the left are upset with some of his current positions, and some of it is voters who are still wary of some positions (or a lack of experience, whatever that means).
When your candidate is stagnant at 42-43 percent in most states, you should be concerned.
http://www.time.com/time/magaz…
In 80′ Carter was the known quantity, Reagan was the “risky” outsider. Today McCain is the known quantity, Obama is the “risky” outsider.
The fact that McCain can not poll better than the mid 40’s when he is so well known and Obama polls in the high 40’s when there are so many people like our new troll pushing false stories, reminds me of 1980 when there were fears about Reagan being a bomb throwing lunatic were alleviated during the debates. Even the Chaieman of the American Conservative Union agrees with me.
http://pundits.thehill.com/200…
I expect a Obama breakout at some point in October. Maybe not a Reagan 10, but a plus 4 pop/electoral blowout.
Carter won because people like me worked hard for him. I was stupid then I believed the crap the Democrats promised and well I hated Nixon what a dummy for Watergate.
Obama is not only risky because he is untested newcomer, he is risky because of WHO he is…
From Dreams of My Father: ‘I never emulate white men and brown men whose fates didn’t speak to my own. It was into my father’s image, the black man, son of Africa…
I Never Practiced Islam – NOT EXACTLY, you practiced it daily at school, where you were registered as a Muslim and kept that faith for 31 years, until your wife made you change, so you could run for an American government office.
4-3-08 Article ‘Obama was ‘quite religious in islam” http://www.wnd.com/index.php?f…
This man should never be President of the United Stats of America.
and all that we stand for?
Fron the Constitution of the United States:
Article VI.
Clause 3
“… but no religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States.”
You seem to be spouting the KKK line do they have a shill points program like McCain?
Who you going to believe CNN or WND who published racist essays like the one that got Rep. Jim “some of my best friends are black” Welker into trouble
BTW Welker’s “Best” Black friend says
http://www.rockymountainnews.c…
I need to go make dinner Liberals but keep writing. I just love to log on later to see how much you all can cry, complain, and of course whine.
Oh yes, and insult any conservative that tells the truth.
See ya!
any conservative who tells the truth….Provided I ever meet one….
a Bush lover thinks.
They say that Bush is as dumb as a rock but the people who voted for him twice are even dumber.
Why would I care about the opinions of someone who is dumber than a rock?
Barack Obama – 17,900,000 votes in the primary
John McCain – 9,900,000 votes in the primary
So, 17,000,000 Americans disagree with your crazy baseless statements.
Also, put your money where your mouth is. $52 million in one month, compared to $21 million.
You can poll all you want, the only poll I would concern myself with is the one taken on November 4, 2008.
The rest of your comments are not worth my thoughts
Great article at Real Clear Politics
That comes out to a shift in party identification of 1.7 million toward us Dems.
from Larry Sabato
If Mississippi is in play then this election is over. It means McCain is now down to about 5 safe states. If he has to work to win Mississippi then he is going to have to work just to hang on to the states that were supposed to be safe Republican.
From the DailyKOS poll (by Research 2000) we have:
Senate:
Wicker (R) 45 (46)
Musgrove (D) 44 (42)
President:
McCain (R) 51 (54)
Obama (D) 42 (39)
With Obama getting 19% of the white vote – in f@#cking Mississippi! And the poll shows 15% of African-American voters “undecided.” Gee, which way do you think they’ll go when they decide?
The fact is, this is a battleground. It always has been. You can take this poll with the same weight that you take the other poll from yesterday that had Obama 7 points ahead. This is no time for either side to be complacent and thump their chests. It’s going to be a fight to the finish.
the conventional wisdom that when economic times are bad, the dems win ..doesn’t take into account what happened in 1980….inflation sky high…interest rates around 20%……and Carter sprouting an energy policy…which if we had followed, the country would be in hog heaven, now, energy wise and global warming wise……
What happened? Reagan landslide.
is that when the economy is in the tank, the party that has occupied the White House loses.
But you’re certainly right, Republican flim-flammery about drilling, oil shale and gas taxes seems to be swaying the electorate for now.
..they’re just too stupid for their own good, eh rabbit?
Never agreed with Dwyer so much in my life as I do in this thread.
But, OMG, talk about your strange bedfellows….
I’ve always been strangely attracted to you, Dwyer…
McCain is gaining ground in many states and this will lead to President McCain.
Keep talking Liberals… Americans will not elect Obama bin Laden!