CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
July 09, 2008 10:30 PM UTC
29 Comments
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If you like how he doles out government money to his friends now,
send him to Congress where he can really be generous (with Other People’s Money.)
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As the lottery is basically a tax on people who are bad at math, and that disproportionally hits the poor, it’s not a great job history for someone wanting to represent those who are less well off.
Good for Will to be able to raise that much money. But I do not understand why he randomly decided to stop taking PAC money and then make it sound like he is above doing so. He isn’t. Even he agrees.
“I have not made any statement that I won’t take PAC money. I decided early on that that would be hypocritical of me to say that because I have given money to PACs over a long period of time; environmental PACs. I recognize the value that they have in the system.”
That is, it’s better to stop taking PAC money than to say you won’t and then you do.
Cheers.
about 12 Mil short for him to raise his name ID.
Because no one has ever raised name ID with $1.3 million. Give me a break. He doesn’t have to compete with Jared’s money to raise name ID, he just has to raise enough to get on TV…which he has.
His name ID may not have been good before he started paid communications…but if you think 5 weeks of television adverstisments aren’t enough to have people learn someone’s name, you don’t know the first thing about politics.
Or, advertisements as the case may be.
Ballots go out tomorrow. He’s sitting out there with his pants down at something like 20% name ID, because he’s horded his money for so long. What a waste.
Didn’t everyone think that Cary Kennedy waited way to long to get moving. Her late blitz seemed to work. Comparable?
Cary Kennedy may have gone on TV late, but she was on TV. Her opponent, Mark Hillman, never aired anything on television, only a bit of radio, the poor man’s medium. Better Late than Never is a useful strategy. But against the strong head start from Polis and Fitz-G, Shafroth will be swimming upstream, especially as mail ballots go out this weekend.
Shafroth’s ability to raise name ID through paid communications has nothing to do with Polis’ millions dumped into TV. The fact that Jared has been on TV since last year doesn’t somehow hurt Shafroth’s ability to raise name ID. If Jared wasn’t in the race, you wouldn’t be thinking somehow $1.3 million wasn’t enough to get name ID up. Jared being in the race doesn’t affect this at all.
I understand that Polis supporters want to believe that his being on TV so long will seal the deal. Luckily, for democracy’s sake, simply having name ID doesn’t win you an election. John Elway has great name ID, but that doesn’t mean he would win in this district. This election is going to come down to who voters like the best.
In short, the constant harping from Polis folks that Will has no chance is getting old. I understand the strategy. Convince people that don’t like Joan that their only option is Jared. Of course that isn’t true and simply repeating it over and over again won’t make it true. This is a three-way primary that unbiased observers (such as Roll Call) recognize is anybody’s to win. Don’t let your personal support for Jared cloud your journalistic judgment.
I don’t have a dog in this hunt but I can read a poll and know a too little, too late, strategy when I see one. In Roll Call’s case, yes, they are unbiased but above all, they’re uninformed.
Has there been any polling in this race? I’d love to read a poll. Do you have a link?
but I know Polis and Fitz-G have both had internals. My sources say both Polis and FG have Polis ahead at this point, with Shafroth a poor third. Given Shafroth’s low profile to date, that’s what I’d expect. Whether he can change that dynamic in the next few weeks, of course, is the key question.
I remembered Kennedy being late but not Hillman being absent
In so much as the revenue caps ment the campaign hoarded the money to spend on the ad buy.
There was much discussion about when to go up (early voting makes timing tougher).
As to Will:
I like Will, I think he is the most suited to congress. I’m not sure if he can beat the Polis carpet bomb unless Polis and JFG go nuclear on each other. However 1 1/2 months on the air are enough to get you up on air, so that is not the problem.
who’s Will Shafroth?
Will is the guy who loses emails and files frivilous FEC complaints, member?
Well, I may not be a political insider, all knowing wunder-guru like all of you on this forum are, but I do have a few observations over the last year or so on the CD2 race and the Shafroth campaign:
–> foregoing the caucus process in favor of a door to door, face to face, meet potential voter campaign to gather ballot petition signatures (note: didn’t Shafroth set a record for the most ever ballot petition signatures for CD2?). Maybe Shafroth had to petition instead of caucus for whatever political reasons but the fact is, he did it (and successfully I might add) all while meeting his potential voters face to face.
–> Shafroth appears to be exceeding fundraising* $$$ totals over his competitors at (I believe nearly if not every?) step of the way (note: campaign fundraising*, not personal campaign contributions). Shafroth’s campaign also seems to have had the most solid fiscal / cash on hand reports each quarter. Now, I’m no rocket scientist (or political insider, all knowing wunder-guru), but it sure seems to me that setting campaign fundraising* records and being frugal with campaign spending until the final weeks of the campaign seems to indicate a campaign that knows what they are doing…
–> I also have personally noticed at more than a few various large attendance CD2 city events over the last 12 months(parades, city festivals, neighborhood clean-ups, etc) that Shafroth himself was present, walking around, shaking hands, and meeting potential voters while the other candidate’s campaigns present at the same events merely sent staff people. Now I’m sure Shafroth can’t be at every event himself and that there were some events that the other two candidates probably attended in person that I wasn’t at but I have to say that Shafroth always seems to consistently be the candidate I see present at these civic events.
–> add in the (record setting?) door to door ballot petition signature gathering campaign to the personal presence of Shafroth at large scale civic events and it seems to me that Shafroth very likely has personally met more potential CD2 voters in person than either of the other candidates.
–> oh yeah, I was one of the people email spammed by the Polis campaign, not once, not twice, not even three times…but on numerous occasions. Annoying! I never signed up to receive emails from that campaign. My repeated emails requesting to be removed from the Polis campaign’s email database went nowehere. I literally had to call their campaign office and demand to be removed from their database (and I still received two more emails after that). Annoying to say the least.
–> and I won’t even begin to bring up the Polis campaign staff firings / resignations over the course of this race…
–> it is said that there is no substitute for intelligence, persistence, hard work, and solid work ethic. Seems pretty obvious to this observer that Shafroth is more of a contender than the armchair quarterbacks on this forum realize.
—-
PS, I lived in Castle Rock for many years and the Greenland open space land purchase Shafroth @ GOCO (I think?) was involved in was one of the best land conservation deals I’ve seen in my lifetime of living in Colorado. Trust me, if it didn’t happen, it would a constant string of gas stations, tract homes, and strip malls from Castle Rock to Colorado Springs by now. If Shafroth was responsible for that land deal, that’s a great gift he helped give to our state in my book.
oh yeah, don’t get me wrong, I read this forum regularly for it’s entertainment value. It wouldn’t be the same without all the armchair QB’s and your wacky statements 🙂
Good set of observations here. You know, though, some of the whacky statements are coming from actual quarterbacks.
To answer your arrows one by one …
–> Jared and Joan are also going door to door, just as frequently as Will. In fact, since Joan and Jared have far more field staff, they are contacting WAY more people face to face. That’s another casualty of Will refusing to spend his money until it is too late.
–> Just factually wrong. Will was in last place in fundraising after the last quarter, NOT including personal money. And he’s by FAR in last place if you count by number of donors (most of Will’s donors are high dollar).
–> I’ve rarely seen Will at any events. The two J’s have FAR more VIP surrogates and thus can be at far more events.
–> Don’t know what you’re talking about re spamming.
Thanks for playing, Will. Have a nice day.
You drank the Will Shafroth forbes’s Koolaid.
He is not going to win, he is going to end up in maybe low single digits.
But $1.3 mil should buy his way out of single digits.
I’m an unaffil in CD2 and don’t have a strong favorite in the race — my observation is that I’ve seen a good number of yard signs going up recently for JFG…
but I just got back from running some errands and saw a number of Polis signs up that I hadn’t before. Looks like he has them out now also. I can honestly say that I haven’t seen any Will signs, though I assume his neighborhood has quite a few.
Blake, go to work and stop trolling on pols
Boulder Dem, DUguy2008, and Baron X, whoever you all are, your posts are my favorites lately.
Your posts contain vivid metaphorical imagery, lurid accusations, tantalizing insider knowledge, political intrigue, hints of insider knowledge, and thinly veiled biased opinions…and lots and lots of DRAMA!!!
I know I speak for many when I say that your posts are one reason I visit this website on a regular basis, especially lately!
What are you, some kind of guy with a high IQ or something? The Right to Shirk Committee is watching you, boy.