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March 05, 2008 04:16 PM UTC

Wednesday Open Thread

  • 28 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Opinions, predictions, assholes, all with one thing in common.

Comments

28 thoughts on “Wednesday Open Thread

  1. Take the time to read our favorite legislator’s self-defense:

    http://daily.gazette.com/Defau

    And for him to claim that the media attention to his actions is not indicative of his past record is ludicrous.  He has always been abusive to women, rude and obnoxious to staffers, and condescending to everyone – it’s just that now the media (Thanks Denver) is finally reporting it.

    On Sunday, the Gazette ran a front page article on him – once again pandering to his massive ego.  To continue highlighting the actions of this megalomaniac only makes matters worse.  

    1. He began his glorified defense of his own actions by writing in third person. And again with the “nudge” comment… this buffoon needs to know when to stop digging.

      Go Blue thinks Doug Bruce is as dense as he looks.

  2. Evie Hudak’s lavish State Board of Education expense account will become an issue in November.

    Funny a month ago Jared Polis did not know that he had received $997 in expenses. Now he says he did but paid it back. Which is it?

    In the exchange of statements over campaign spending Polis effectively hit Fitz-Gerald for her receipt of special interest money. This round goes to Polis.  Shafroth will likely raise an additional $300,000 this quarter alone. Many of his donors will not hesitate to write a check to him for $4600 more.

        1. I thought I heard awhile back that she and Hudak were arm-wrestling over who would run for Windels’ senate seat. They must’ve resolved it.

  3. being the only Dem able to beat McCain?

    As Lee Corso would say, “not so fast, my friend.”

    Today’s WaPo/ABC poll says both the golden boy and old woman would beat McCain if the election was today.  

    I don’t put much stock in polls taken this far out…which is saying something b/c polls are kinda my life…but still, given all the ridiculous yammering of Obama supporters saying their guy was the only one who could beat McCain, I just had to post this.

    Yes, BHO does lead by more than HRC…but you only need to win by one vote…the rest is just an ego builder.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/200

    Also, If I get around to it, I’ll try to post some interesting superdelegate research I did while bored at “work” today.  Gotta love it when profs make you cover their office hours…

    1. Obama can win enough to have coat tails.  His ability to organize terrifies the GOP for its effect on down ballot races.  

      Hillary will compete in maybe 6 states and the GOP will focus there.  Obama’s 50 state strategy will force the GOP to commit resources in far more places and that will help state, local and federal democratic candidates.

      1. I concede the point.  But I’m not talking about down-ballot races or coattails.  I’m talking about who’s going to be the next president…not whether or not some Dem from the Kansas First has a shot of winning a congressional seat.  I care about who the next prez is, not whether or not Dems have an extra 3 seat cushion in the House and pickup a few state legislatures.

        Hillary will compete in all the states that are going to be competitive…and she can win them.  BHO can do whatever he wants in Utah and Alaska, John McCain will still win there.  

        IMO this election will come down to a handful of swing states just like the last one.  BHO is popular, but he’s not “realigning election” popular…at least not at this point.  To suppose he would have drastic down-ballot influence at this point is a bit foolish.  Dems seemed to do pretty well w/o anyone at the top of the ticket in 06…08 probably won’t be all that different.

        I prefer a candidate who’s willing to invest in NM, NH, FL, OH, MO, WI, CO, and PA at the expense of pursuing this “50-state strategy” and dumping money into Idaho and Mississippi.  Until some actual statistical info jumps out at me, Dems aren’t going to win there (primary turnout ain’t gonna do it).

        My main point is that the Obama camp argument that HRC can’t beat McCain is pure BS.  They can both beat the old man.  Given that, the idea that not supporting BHO is somehow death to Dems just doesn’t ring true…  

        1. “Yes, BHO does lead by more than HRC…but you only need to win by one vote…the rest is just an ego builder”

          but we are talking about the difference between someone who is more certain to beat McCain (BO) and someone who is less certain to beat McCain (HRC).  These polls are predictions about chances of winning. Surely you want the candidate who has the best chance, no ?

          1. They are snapshots in time.  

            I want the candidate that is closest to my “ideal point” AND is able to beat McCain.  BHO only fulfills one of those criteria.  HRC fits both.

            If this was just about who was “more certain to beat McCain,” sure, I’d vote for BHO…but it’s not.

        2. that can be used in deep red states to help down ballot.

          I also think he runs better in CO, MO, IA, WI, I think you can add VA to his column as well.

          I concede she has the advantage in PA and OH, but they are not insurmountable.

          Her support is capped, his is not.  This is why she’s gone negative.  She can’t win: she can only make him lose.

          In addition her narrative doesn’t work against McCain.  She has the most experience? Wont work.  She can’t argue she had the forethought to see that Iraq would be a stategic disaster.  She might be able to eke out a win by saying times were good under my husband and McCain admits to not knowing about the economy, but it would be narrow and she wouldn’t have much help in the congress.

          I actually think the down ballot really matters.  We need those state houses coming into redistricting.  We have to build operations in red states and purple to control or at least influence the process

  4. They are snapshots in time.  

    I want the candidate that is closest to my “ideal point” AND is able to beat McCain.  BHO only fulfills one of those criteria.  HRC fits both.

    If this was just about who was “more certain to beat McCain,” sure, I’d vote for BHO…but it’s not.

    1. They are snapshots in time, yes,  taken to predict, within a margin of error, what happens in the future.

      If they had no predictive value why would people bother taking them ?

      1. The power of self-fulfilling prophecy.  By paying pollsters, candidates can cherry-pick data that show they’re the ones in the lead, therefore convincing folks they should jump on the bandwagon.  

        In themselves, polls mean nothing.  When applied to stupid people in large numbers, they become their own meaning.

        1. Say you are a Candidate running in a presidential primary season, the primaries are winner take all, and you take two polls.  One poll in Arizona says you are 30 % ahead and have a clear lead in that state, and another poll you take in Virginia says you are 20% behind there.

          Where are you going to spend all of your time, money and resources ?  Polling tells you where.

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