President (To Win Colorado)
See Full Big Line
(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%↑
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
See Full Big Line
(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
See Full Big Line
(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
See Full Big Line
(R) Jeff Hurd
(D) Adam Frisch
52%↑
48%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
See Full Big Line
(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
See Full Big Line
(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
See Full Big Line
(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
See Full Big Line
(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
See Full Big Line
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
52%↑
48%↓
State Senate Majority
See Full Big Line
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
See Full Big Line
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
March 04, 2008 05:18 PM UTC
25 Comments
It will be interesting to see how it plays out in Boulder in 2 weeks. JP is close enough that with a strong enough showing in Boulder he could be first – and that would be a giant shocker.
Jared has my vote at the county convention – here’s why. And I have had others email me in response to this saying that they were leaning JFG, but now JP.
It will be an interesting Saturday…
are still up for grabs? If JFG and JP split Boulder, with JFG taking Gilpin and Adams (no clue about Weld) does he even have a chance at this point? Anyone have projected numbers?
Come on, They will both do well in Adams and Boulder.
They will both be on the Ballot and I say Polis will pull ahead in Boulder and Adams.
swamp the rest. There are 870 some odd delegates total (so to date we have a little more than 10%). Boulder has about 350 and Adams about 250. The rest are split between Weld (very small), Gilpin (even smaller), Grand (very small), and Jeffco (huge county but only a tiny slice is in CD2 … but it happens to be where JFG lives).
JFG will win Jeffco easily, perhaps even shutting JP out. Grant and Gilpin will be JFG wins too, although unpredictable. Who knows about Weld. Adams will be about even. Neither has a base there but both have high profile surrogates. Boulder is the decisive one. It is Jared’s home base but JFG has been working it for years in preparation for this campaign and represented a small portion of it in the Senate. She has a lot of friends here. I’m guessing JP but only by 20-30 delegates.
So my guess, when it’s all said and done, is JFG finishes first by about 54-46. That suggests a photo finish in August, since conventional wisdom is that JP does better outside of the insider-y caucus system.
Here are the numbers:
Broomfield: 59
Clear Creek: 15
Eagle: 46
Gilpin: 9
Grand: 18
Summit: 38
Boulder: 376
Adams: 219
Jefferson: 63
Weld: 29
I’d like to see it, too!
http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/02/my-vote-at-the.html
Adams and Jefferson are huge and likely to go for Fitz-Gerald. She seems to run way ahead in areas that she has represented. Ed Perlmutter is helping her in Jefferson and Adams as well. Jared may need 70% in Boulder to reach 30% overall.
Dumbfounded… I will take you on that bet.
Polis will tie or win Adams.
First of all Jeffco is very small. It’s only a tiny slice of the county that’s in CD2 (basically just the Jeffco portion of Westminster). And Jared is quite strong in Adams county, especially among Latino voters who remember the special session. That’s NOT Joan’s base by any stretch. Figure it to be about even, with a distinct chance of JP winning it.
All of the numbers I have heard from Boulder have Fitz-Gerald with a 55-45% advantage or greater. Levy and Madden really turned out the vote for Fitz-Gerald in their caucuses.
Adams has a lot of delegates who are union members and that will favor Fitz-Gerald.
Thank you for the correction about Jefferson County.
My prediction is 64% favoring Fitz-Gerald at the Congressional convention.
… or any of those around it. But I guess that’s why they do the assemblies!
I’ll bet you a ciber-beer that JP wins Boulder. But it won’t be by much.
From what was posted here right after the caucuses Polis did not do all that well in his home base. One caucus even had him way behind Shafroth who was not even competing.
What happened at your caucus locatiion?
Jared has put a lot of time and money and staff into Adams but all the numbers I am hearing have him way behind.
As the sports announcers say on Sunday that’s why they play the games.
What “numbers” are you hearing, regarding Boulder OR Adams? Unless you work for either Joan or Jared, who have presumably been calling delegates, how could you have any “numbers”?
Jared kicked butt in my precinct and all but one of the precincts in my super center. But again, we’ll see!
What was the breakdown in your precincts between Polis, Fitz-Gerald and Shafroth?
Jared, if I’m not mistaken, also has an office in Adams county. I hope Joan is counting on a win there, because I don’t think she’s going to get it!
Polis went crazy with direct mail and a huge TV buy the week before the caucuses. Does not seem to be paying off. Fitz-Gerald is also spending a lot of money but does at least seem headed for top line.
Judging by the ads posted on the candidate’s websites I’d have to say Shafroth has the best media team. Will he have enough money to air those ads is the question?
“I’d have to say Shafroth has the best media team.”
He also has lynea hansen.
The Polis TV buy seemed very small to me. It was there and then it was gone. I’ll bet it was no more than $50k.
I also got more mail supporting Joan than I got supporting Jared. Although all of Joan’s came from a 527 rather than her campaign.
Jared has enough support from people who insist that Joan is “too establishment”, and he’s done a lot for the Democratic Party in terms of fundraising. He’ll easily make threshold and get on the ballot via the caucus process.
Also, Adams and Jefferson, while important, are split between CD-2 and other districts (as is Boulder to a lesser extent); this alters the delegate apportionment a bit.
The big question becomes: will Will Shafroth make the ballot by petition? He’s got the cash to compete so far; if he can get the signatures, it’ll be an interesting race up to August.
He’s got a really good team and knows what he is doing. 1,000 signatures will be very easy for his team.
it’s a really low threshold, he will be fine.
I think that the end result will be about 55% JFG and JP 45%- it looks like it will be close. This is Joan’s race to lose so I would be shocked if JP won the caucus/ assembly process. But she needs to prove that she can win and win big in areas that she hasn’t represented already, otherwise she is in trouble for Aug.