President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%↑
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd
(D) Adam Frisch
52%↑
48%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
52%↑
48%↓
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
February 12, 2008 05:43 PM UTC
62 Comments
MD, DC and VA are all primaries and it does indeed look like Obama will win all 3. I am curious as to what the spin will be from the Clinton campaign since the excuse that they are caucuses and therefore dominated by party activists is not available this time.
She sent hubby out over the weekend to remind people that Obama is the “black candidate” for President
From Yesterday’s WaPo:
“Former president Bill Clinton said yesterday that he understood the “immense pride” that has propelled black voters to the polls for Sen. Barack Obama”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/…
it will be hard to pin it all on black pride. Of course they will say it’s a combination of black pride and affluent voters.
The first “black” president and his wife, the triangulating, pro-corporate, pro-NAFTA, DLC Clintons, are suddenly all about low income blue collar white folks. Blacks, students and college educated Dems and independents don’t really count? The Clintons as white populists? What will they try next!
all three VA, DC and MD will have very large african american voting blocks.
Obama will now be the front runner and maybe now the media will finally start looking at his record… or lack there of.
What are hillary’s accomplishments exactly? Not a snark–list her accomplishments. Don’t list her husbands, as she likes to say ‘she is running, not her husband.’
Hillary can not keep blaming her losses on …….. (Blacks, well educated voters, independants, caucuses, aliens, right-wing conspiracy,small states, Obama was allowed to campaign, gloabal warming, MSNBC, campaign staff)and she has to stop saying states don’t matter. If she is so tough, she has to own up to her failures
Eat it mountain man!
Sweep all three, VA will be close between McCain and Huckabee.
That would push the Republican decision out at least a little.
VA is Huck’s best chance today, but I sense that the race is winding down. I think that the Republican establishment has resigned itself to the fact that McCain will be our nominee and are looking to make sure that he comes around on certain issues as opposed to footing someone else.
I also think that the establishment is satisfied that McCain has gotten the point that McCain has work to do with the base. The longer Huckabee stays in and picks off states, the more chance he has of dividing the party and over-playing his hand.
If McCain sweeps the three primaries today and Huck doesn’t get out, he’s going to start burning bridges.
Across the country Obama has won huge support from Democrats for refusing to accept any money from lobbyists.
Across CD 2 Jared Polis was overwhelmingly rejected by Democrats for taking lobbyist money and than claiming he had not done so.
Polis even lost most of the Boulder precincts that did straw polls. Alice Madden and Claire Levy both helped Fitz-Gerald win the straw polls in their precincts by a three or four to won margin.
I’ve seen individual numbers reported but they are so very different from one to the next that I find them all very suspect.
People are asked to raise their hands after the name of each Congressional candidate is announced. Someone counts the hands for each candidate. You than add up the results from ech caucus. Why is that suspect? Lots of witnesses to each straw poll.
The Polis campaign pushed for the straw polls and hired a lot of people to work the caucuses on his behalf.
In Claire Levy’s, Dan Gibbs’, and Alice Madden’s caucuses Polis got beat handily. Polis also lost badly in Jefferson and Adams Counties.
Are the numbers suspect only because Polis fared so poorly?
And I thought they could leap buildings in a single bound plus had X-ray vision…
But it’s pretty super when you consider their individual power compared to the power of we ordinary voters. And there’s the rub for their new “Clinton as the white populist candidate” message.
It’s hard to be the candidate going to the barricades for lower income white folks and the darling of a super powerful elite at the same time. Solution? Redefine. Remember the word “is”?
in the process of choosing a President sounds pretty damn super to me.
Renaming Super-delegates to the less offensive “automatic” delegates is worthy or the GOP’s Orwellian wordsmith.
As to super power: average joe 1 person, 1 vote–Super delegate 1 person, 100,000 votes.
…what kind of spiders they’d all been bitten by.
I don’t know if its already been posted here, but Politico.com has a list of the Dem Superdelegates. Here are Colorado’s:
Diane DeGette
Maria Handley
Ramona Martinez
Mannie Rodriguez
Debbie Marquez
Ed Perlmutter
JW Postal
Dan Slater
Bill Ritter
Roy Romer
John Salazar
Ken Salazar
Mark Udall
Pat Waak
Supporting Obama:
Debbie Marquez
Ed Perlmutter
JW Postal
Dan Slater
Supporting Clinton:
Diane DeGette
Maria Handley
Ramona Martinez
Mannie Rodriguez
Uncommitted:
Bill Ritter
Roy Romer
John Salazar
Ken Salazar
Mark Udall
Pat Waak
According to AOL…with 0% reporting, VA is called for Obama…
I don’t get it. I thought VA was supposed to be the closest contest between those two, why is it getting called without any votes counted?
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
12 minutes after polls close, no returns in yet. Seems so strange to me.
Actually I would guess the exit polls showed such a large lead that they felt safe calling it.
The press better hope to high heaven that they’re right.
Exit polls have a great track record. No one notices them when they’re dead on…but the handful of times they are, wrong people like to pile on.
This primary season, almost every single one (of the good ones*) has been right.
Back in 2000, the Florida exits were the only ones that were “wrong.” 49 outta 50 ain’t bad. Same in 04 when it was only Ohio that was wrong. 98 out of 100 is a pretty damn good track record. Add in the 30 or so this year on both sides and only 1 or 2 have been off.
*I’m talking about CNN, WaPo, AP, ABC… Not the crap people “report” on sites like DailyKos.
Exit polls have a good track record? That’s why exit polls showed Kerry sweeping Bush out of office in 2004 only to have Bush get more than 50% of the popular vote, and be the first person to do so since 1988?
Exit polls that were so unreliable in 2000 that the media didn’t use them at all in 2002. How many races did they get wrong in 2002? None.
Yeah, great track record there!
I deal with this stuff everyday. If the numbers were so bad, I wouldn’t be able to do any research (which would make being a grad student a bit difficult).
No reputable group uses national exit poll info. Actual political scientists look at things on a state by state basis. State by state, tha vast majority of exits were dead on in 2000. The VNS screwed up in 2002 and thus there were no exits (that became available to the public) in the 02 election. It had nothing to do with 2000. Exit data was taken under a decidedly bad system and then thrown out in 02. That’s what happened.
As Ive said before, polls are like referees or umpires. When they are right, no one notices they exist. When they are wrong, you people like to pile on.
That posted the differences between how Europe does exit polling and how the U.S. does it? If I recall (correctly), in the U.S., there is one person running the polling so they miss people while they’re on break or reporting their numbers. They aren’t there for the whole time that polls are open! Europe has two people tag-teaming it and do a pretty good job. There’s a lot of holes in our way of doing it.
Nothing personal, but I don’t think that the methodoligy is sound. They might be good to see how a demographic group is voting, but I don’t like using them to call results of an election.
Anyway, I didn’t know you were a grad student. What’s your major?
And the Germans seem to have it figured out. So has BYU…no connection b/t the two, just a strange fact.
In a perfect exit poll world, the precincts polled are randomly chosen. That might sound strange…but when you try to cherry-pick precincts to include a whole variety of demographics, it quickly becomes mind bogglingly impossible…even more so in a large state.
The real problem as I see it is that the raw data are not correctly “calibrated” all the time. Adjusting for anomalies takes time and a full collection of data. Somehow CNN managed to get this right this year so their numbers have been pretty good even right after the polls close. It’s just one of the strange battles in the PoliSci world between math nerds and politics nerds…
Anyway, I agree that using the data to call elections doesn’t really make sense…unless the margin of victory is so big anyone with a brain would know who was going to win. But they are useful for seeing “what happened” in an election; and, in the end tend to pretty accurate. I’m doing my MA in PoliSci at CU so when exits and other election related stuff is worn or incomplete, it makes my life a living hell… Good times…
Why don’t we use the German or BYU model? Kind of ironic that those two would get it right, because they have sooooo much in common.
How long until you’re done with your masters? I’m getting my BA in PoliSci, and I’ve thought about getting my MA. What can you tell me about what to expect if I do?
the German model (or at least what they’ve done the last 5 or so years) is a lot like ours but more thorough. They have larger samples so their results tend to more complete. Their pollsters are also able to stand closer to the voting precincts (no 100ft or 100yd laws like here in the US apparently). I also think their response rates are higher. Maybe Germans are just nicer. 😛
BYU also ends up with a larger sample than most exit polls. They also have more than one person at each polling place so the coverage is more extensive.
We could probably emulate both to some extent…if the major networks are willing to shell out enough to do exit polls properly or more completely.
My completely unscientific theory as to “why” they do it better than us is that the Germans happily participate in exit polls b/c they’re tanked up on Bavarian Lager and the Utahans oblige because (as the stereotype goes) they are all Mormons and Republicans, thus happy to be a part of the civic duty. 😛 I’ll let you, our resident LDS expert, parse the validity of that one, haha.
Anyway, this is my second semester and it’s mostly enjoyable. I did my undergrad here too so it really isn’t much different from that. Same professors, similar material…just a lot more research. In all honesty, I kinda wish I had gone to law school because it would have been a lot more practical and I’ll probably end up there after I graduate (hopefully next May). I don’t have much of an interest in teaching but if you do you should definitely take the time to get your MA. As long as you find your niche w/in the discipline, it can be a lot of fun.
I was thinking that maybe it was because you either had to be really drunk or have the spirit of God with you to make sense of it all. Hopefully if I’m wrong I can still keep my “resident Mormon” title.
I wonder (since you are more familar) if there are any cases where BYU did exit polling out side of Utah? It can’t be hard to figure who will win there, so I wonder if they ever did exit polling in say…Missouri (ok, bad example for the Mormons to do-they’d probably get run off again), or some other battle ground/bellweather state.
I have thought about teaching, but I would really have a blast as a staffer or working for a think-tank or something. But the more education you have, the more options you have.
So what’s your favorite class?
Yeah, Missouri may not be such a good idea 😛
I’m not aware of any, but they did poll the SLC mayoral race in 2003. Rocky Anderson won by 8 points but is was supposedly a “bitterly divided race.”
http://exitpoll.byu.edu/Main/p…
I have a class entitled “The US Congress” that is remarkably similar to a class I had as a ug about 3 years ago titled “The American Congress.” The prof is the same guy so, not surprisingly, they are remarkably similar…just more reading and about 3x as much writing.
My favorite class was with a guy that I actually hated as an undergrad. “American sub-national politics” was great and was exactly what I envisioned grad school would be like: Tons of reading obscure material no one had ever heard of. But then about 6 or 7 weeks into the semester when everyone was ready to kill the guy, we started applying all this random state political knowledge to actual events around the country and it was amazing.
I still have the link to the class if you want a taste of the reading list. You might not be able to open the links to most of the readings b/c they are almost all on JSTOR and other journals. Some of them have a user/password that has an unhackable combo. It’s the course number 7151… 😛
http://socsci.colorado.edu/~mc…
BTW, where are you going to school?
My printer is about to go crazy-those are some good articles and such!
I’m going to a local community college until my wife gets done with school and then I can go full time at a big-boy school
What would I have to do to bribe you for access to some of these other links?
I wish I could, but I don’t actually have accounts with the online journals that any of the articles are on. When I’m on campus they open automatically b/c CU has blanket access to them. I don’t know if you are anywhere near CU-Springs or if you have a laptop, but I think it might work the same way there. Of course, as I type this it, dawns on me that I may have had to log into the CU system the first time I used a CU network with my laptop…which you obviously wouldn’t be able to do… :/
Another idea is that some professor has to have access to (at least) JSTOR at your JC. If you can access it through one of them then you’re golden. Maybe even the librarian could point you in the right direction. I don’t know much about CO JC’s, but I took a few classes one summer in CA at one and the librarian proved to be smarter than either of the profs I had… It’s at least worth a shot.
Glad to see you’re enjoying the articles. There’s a whole world of PolSci related crap out there. If it wasn’t for school, I’d have never known it existed. 😛
According to CNN exit polls Obama won a majority of young voters, African-American voters, over 60 voters, female voters, people earning under 50K/year, union members, Republicans voting Dem, independents, and Latino (very few in VA) voters.
Hillary did win among white voters, but it was only 52%-48% – in the South
We do need to wait for Ohio, Penn, & Texas but this kind of win is gigantic for Obama.
Hillary’s Campaign
That was great!
Has more votes than all the Republicans put together. In Virginia! How do you think the general election is going to go?
If the vote was Obama vs all Republicans (ie Clinton’s votes don’t count), he would win with 55% in Virginia.
Now please explain to me how McCain has even a ghost of a prayer of winning Virginia in November. And if Obama will win Virginia, explain how McCain has any kind of chance winning the general election?
This is simply amazing.
I prefer Webb (he’s neutral in the race), but Kaine is very close to Obama.
There is a little problem with your numbers though. The GOP race has a supressed turnout because McCain basically has the race locked up.
Actually, most states have very complete delegate counts on CNN. The ones that are missing are:
Washington: Only 50 of 78 pledged delegates counted.
Colorado: Only 28 of 55 pledged delegates counted.
Maryland: As of 10:04 pm, only 16 of 70 pledged delegates counted.
If those three states had all of their delegates (and assuming percentages don’t change much in Maryland), then you’d expect Obama to pick up 37 delegates in Maryland, 18 delegates in Colorado, and 20 in Washington. Clinton would pick up 17 in Maryland, 9 in Colorado, and 8 in Washington.
Other states are within 5 delegates or so, and cancel out (e.g., California versus a couple Obama states being about 5 delegates each short).
So a better estimate might be:
Obama 1114 (+ 156 = 1270)
Clinton 978 (+ 234 = 1212)
(at least from a Democratic POV)
Anti-war Republican Rep. Gilchrist appears headed for defeat to Club For Growth and Dobson candidate Andy Harris in MD-01. Conservative groups contributed heavily to defeating the “least loyal Republican in the House”, and based on the 23% return rate so far, they have succeeded.
The district is R+10, so Harris has a good chance of winning in the general election, but Democratic coat-tails and an open seat election may make it tough for a hardcore conservative replacing an ardent environmentalist in this shoreline district.
Three high level resignations today – http://tpmelectioncentral.talk…
He’s finally won an election with more than 50% of the vote! All three, in fact.
Maybe it’s the water in New York, but I find it interesting that Hillary is apparently adopting Rudy’s Florida strategy. “If I win a big primary, everything will be OK!” I think that Barack Obama’s band-wagon will just continue to roll — right through Ohio and Texas.
Thank you. I appreciate it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
I hope this was fan generated, not campaign generated: its reason enough not to vote for hillary if the campaign created it.
I don’t see why you think it’s frightening. Over sacharane maybe.
I used to be in a different group “up yours people”
As a very bad musician (who wishes he were better) I hate anything that strips the soul out of music.
If not, then the rules need to change. About halfway through (I confess I didn’t make it to the end), I kept picturing John Belushi in “Animal House,” smashing the guitar during the Toga party. But this time Belushi did not apologize.
So I didn’t have to… As a not-great musician myself, I sympathize and am happy to have avoided the apparent pain that this video is capable of inflicting.
That was probably the most awful thing I’ve ever watched on YouTube!
The first bar of the chorus (“Hill-A-Ree”) is lifted note-for-note from “ABC” by the Jackson Five. All this video needed was little Michael, back when he was still Afro-American and had a nose, saying “Sit down, girl! I think I love you! No! Get up, girl! Show me what you can do!”
I wonder which demographic they were going for with this video? The Utah primary is over.
This video suggests Hillary is throwing in the towel and is starting to think about 2012 or 2016. Thus, she targeting girls who will be first time voters in the next elections.
n/t
Not until the fat lady sings. Or the supers make it clear there will be no cavalry coming to her rescue.