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November 02, 2005 09:00 AM UTC

The Fallout

  • 54 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

There’s plenty to come on the fallout from yesterday’s election, but first, a story:

“I just want to say that Colorado Pols was wrong.”

Sheila MacDonald, the campaign manager for the YES campaign on Referenda C&D, was introduced last night to the crowd at the Pinnacle Club in Denver as the “MVP” of the campaign. Those words above were the first out of her mouth.

MacDonald was probably referring to this post on Monday, in which we wrote that many Democrats close to the YES campaign were preparing for a loss. We stand by what we wrote, because that was the general opinion. But as we started to watch yesterday, turnout likely ended up playing a huge role.

Were we wrong on C&D? Well, we never made a prediction, so we can’t claim to have been right or wrong. But congratulations to the C campaign.

Anyway, we’ll add our own commentary on the winners and losers of last night a bit later, but in the meantime the Rocky Mountain News discusses the winners and losers of the C&D election today, and The Denver Post weighs in on the effect the results may have on the Republican gubernatorial race.

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54 thoughts on “The Fallout”

  1. She spelled your name right, didn’t she? Hell yeah.

    Fact is, we Dems were bracing for a loss. Fact is, the Yes on C&D campaign wasn’t very well run, and a lot of people knew it. But for the eminent wisdom of the people of this great state, we might be waking up to a much different outcome.

    But let her have her moment. You betcha.

  2. Regardless, her comment shows how much influence coloradoPols.com has on our local politics.  I love that there is an open forum to debate local issues.

  3. Regardless, her comment shows how much influence coloradoPols.com has on our local politics.  I love that there is an open forum to debate local issues.

  4. Regardless, her comment shows how much influence coloradoPols.com has on our local politics.  I love that there is an open forum to debate local issues.

  5. No, Pols just uses unnamed “insiders” with no evidence to back up said “insider’s” claims. I find that a tad worrisome, because it seems to happen a lot. Just like secret poll numbers, where Pols won?t say who did them or how they were obtained. You do that enough and someone is going to use you (if they haven?t already).

  6. Do you think they would break half the stories they do if they named all of their sources? That’s pretty pollyannish if you ask me. I have no doubt that pols is often wrong, but they are also right quite a lot.

  7. Furthermore, I would say that if anything, this election just showed how useless most “insider” information is–not to mention “predictors”.

  8. Margaret:

    I never said secret sources were all bad, but when you use them so much it ain’t good either.
    Often wrong and often right? Anybody is right and wrong on different occasions, that?s not special.

  9. The truth is that ColoradoPols’ “prediction” (or whatever you want to call it) that C was going down to defeat showed the naivite of the folks who ran this site.

    They blindly assumed that heavily Republican areas would heavily vote against C, while heavily Democratic areas would vote for C.  This ignored the internals of the public polls which clearly showed this race did not necessarily fall along party lines.  African-Americans seemed heavily against it, while areas like Colorado Springs and Douglas County seemed more split than a partisan split would portend.  The vote count played out exactly that way.  So while Pols assumed heavy turnout in Colorado Springs was necessarily bad, those who were watching the polls and the internals of those polls weren’t as worried.

  10. I suppose it depends on the veracity of the source. We’re not worried about ours, and the numbers that prompted the post in question were quite real.

    As an alternative to complaining, you might try getting some “sources” of your own.

  11. James Peabody:
    And who’s to say I don’t have my own?
    The difference is I don’t depend on everything they say. 

    Try not to take it too personally, I love posting on the site–and obviously if I thought it was completely useless I wouldn’t come here.

  13. Let me add this again: we never predicted anything. All of these comments that “Pols was wrong” are fine; sometimes we are wrong, and we admit when we are. But in this case, we didn’t make a prediction. Nowhere did we say, “Referenda C&D are going to lose.”

  14. There were a lot of people who were very prepared for a C loss.  A lot of strong supporters of C complained privately (and some not so privately) about how poorly the campaign had done.

    The win however involved some efforts collateral efforts, without which C would not have one.

    The ground game.  Many of us had always believed that if the the polling remained at around 50-50 that the ground game (provided primarily by orgnanized labor) would make the difference in terms of targeting and turning out supportive voters.  I believe that happened, and may have made the difference in Pueblo, where C was expected to lose.

    The other element is the school board election in Colorado Springs.  A huge effort went into electing a slate of candidates, and a bond issue.  There was a definite synergy between the the Pro-C and the bond issue/candidates.  I believe that the turnout in Colorado Springs is partially what kept C so close in El Paso County and indeed might have been the difference.

    The assumption in elections like this is the need to have a large enough vote in Denver/Boulder to offset El Paso and Arapahoe.

    The narrow win in Arapahoe combined with the narrow loss in El Paso contributed to the win state wide.

  15. Well, I didn’t believe the rumors that C & D proponents thought they were losing, and I thought they’d win. What’s interesting is that the colopols online polls were pretty much 53-47% and accurately predicted the outcome, I think.

    As for the fall out, I wouldn’t put much credence in anything political science professors from liberal colleges had to say about Republicans. Holtzman gained name recognition, and regardless of whether your publicity is bad or good you’re ahead if you have name recognition. He can build on that, but he’s still say behind Beauprez and is unlikely to catch up, imho. MH sounded good on the radio last night, I thought. Did BB make an appearance? How did he do?

  16. The election outcome was the worst possible. Passing C and defeating D leaves the Democratic majority in the legislature and their union cronies a $3 billion blank check, with no instructions to spend it for highways and infrastructure, what government should be doing. It will be blown on worthless welfare projects and public employee raises, and we’ll be even more broke in 5 years. Bill Owens abandoned his conservative principles to back C&D, so will have no ability or credibility in stemming the coming spending orgy.

  19. There were never “numbers” showing C and D going down.  What worried supporters was the historical memory of 1998, when Referendum B was leading into the polls and went south in the final week.  The last poll I heard internally was 47-39 in favor.  Allocate two-thirds of the undecided to know and you get passage by about 52 percent …basically, right on the numbers.  This didn’t turn south at the finish because of the massive bipartisan support, strong advertising, and strong community support…the “ground war.”

  21. Governor Owens showed some balls and stumped for C&D.  Reagan too increased taxes when he had no other choice.  Owens represents all Coloradans, not just the right wing of the Republican party. And finally, Grover Norquist is of course influential, but he is not the sole arbiter of someones political career.

  22. We made a prediction at Mile High Delphi, both results basically fell within our 95% range (well we were off by .1% on C).

    I was super impressed with how close the coloradopols tracking polls were to the final result. Open source intelligence seems to work.

    As to the results of this election. It looks like a draw. This sets the stage for a huge battle in 2006.

  23. Dan Green,

    Not passing Ref. D did little to open up possibilities for random acts of spending on the “evils” you rant about.  There is now a 10% chunk of Ref. C that is not specifically targeted by the legislation that spawned it.  The financial requirements that Ref. D treated (capitol school repairs, fire/police pensions – legally required payments all) will just about fit into that 10%, and I’m sure the Lege will use those funds in just that manner.

    The Democrats in charge in the Lege know full well that to maintain the little voter trust that Democrats in this State have, they will have to carry through with the promises they made in the allocation of Ref. C funds.  They are ultimately accountable in the 2006 election; let’s see how they do…

  24. of all the things she could have started a her half-victory speech with, shelia chose to bash colorado pols? what a reflection of her character and her ill-run campaign as a whole.  it appears that sheila is a control freak and the one media outlet she has absolutely no control over is the one she mentions obsessively.  seriously, get over it sheila!  nice job raising the colorado pols profile yet again though and i can’t wait to hear your next round of colorado pols rants re: peggy lamm.

  25. There are lots of losers in El Paso county today.  The radicals (Lamborn, Schulteis, et al) who didn’t account for C being so close in the county should be evaluating what pull they have here.  Perhaps the biggest winners were those who took positions but were respectful of the public debate and stayed out of the way:  Senator McElhany, Representative Keith King and Jeff Crank.  Even though C won statewide, Mayor Rivera is neither a winner or loser since he is out of the mainstream in his moderate views.  C still lost in the county. 

    It will be interesting to see things shape up between El Paso wackos like Lamborn and his colleagues in Denver such as the Governor.  Will Lamborn or Schulteis be able to get anything done in the session being on the black list of the Governor and others in power after blasting them for 8 months?

  26. I would like to offer constructive criticism to the Yes campaign.

    The yard sign signup effort was pathetic.  I requested a 20-pack months ago, and never heard a peep.  I emailed twice…nothing.  I eventually got signs only because I happened to be in Denver at another meeting where a friend had just come from C & D HQ.  Really lame.  I organize other progressives, I begged for signs, no help at all from the campaign.

    (The Independence Institute was prompt and friendly in sending me scads of No bumper stickers, which we put to creative use.)

    The Yes campaign’s message was a mess.  It lacked an obvious emotional appeal, despite the urgency and humanity involved.  It broke language framing rules by rebutting Caldara’s points first.  It just didn’t work–we used Be The Change USA’s materials instead.

    I did not see any TV ads, but I don’t know anyone who saw and remembered a Yes ad, although everyone complained about the No ads they’d seen.

    It’s perhaps silly to complain about a victory.  But this thing was won by bipartisan support and voters’ realization that yes, we are in dire straits.  I want to thank Bill Owens for realizing what had to be done and rolling up his sleeves to do so.  And I want to thank Ken Gordon for literally putting his life on hold the last year.

    Voters should and will watch very closely how this money is spent, and you’d better believe our Democratic legislature is well aware they are accountable.  If it weren’t for new reports in the Washington Post today of secret American torture prisons in Eastern Europe, I’d be smiling today.

  29. Jonathan,

    I can’t find that Benjamin Franklin quote on any websites except for crazy starve the government/government is evil websites and remarkably none of these websites source the quote.  Can you source the quote or give me where and when Benjamin Franklin said that?  I would hate to see more lies from the drown the government crowd.

  32. Keith, congratulations on a fight well fought and a gracious acceptance of the voters verdict.  Our misunderstanding over Douglas Bruce’s “$750,000 professor” lie notwithstanding, I grew to respect you in this campaign for your decency and humor.  Who knows, maybe next time we’ll be allies in the effort to defeat Referendum E.

  35. I am a State Employee and I have gotten 1 raise in the past 4 years.  I am 100% serious.  I am actually going to quit State employment if I do not get a substantial raise next year as my family cannot afford to work for the State any longer.  It pays peanuts.

  36. State Employee, isn’t any better in the private sector. I have worked for the same company for 21 years this month. Make good money but haven’t had a raise since 1999.

  37. Thank you Marshall and voyageur. Perhaps someday we can have a blog party over at Police Squad’s place:)

    It was a fun race. The name calling somestimes taxed my sensibilities but what the hell, it was a taxing issue.

    Congratulations to the winners and please ask your reps. to spend wisely.

  38. I am sorry to hear that Gecko.  Has your health insurance premium gone up from like $20 a month to like $200 a month as well in the private sector the past 4 years?  This is just not sustainable.

  39. State, my health insurance has gone to around $250.00 a month for what I pay. My company pays matching funds. In fact it just went up two weeks ago. Pretty much at least once a year it goes higher.
    Sucks.

  40. Yep Gecko.  What are your co-pays?  Mine are like $50.00 to see a regular doc.  I wonder where this will end?  The entire country without health insurance?  You see all those commercials all day long on TV about this new drug, that new drug.  They spend so much money on advertizing and we are paying for it basically.

  41. Mine is $30.00 but we have a deductable too for hospitals and such. It is like $1500.00 per surgery with a cap of $4500.00 a year max.
    It is tough but you have to have it. And of course for anything you go in for, you have to see your regular doctor first and then be refered to a specialist.

  42. Gecko, the State pays only like 50-60% compared to what the private sector in CO contributes in health insurance for their employees by the way.  They did some kind of survey that showed that.  NEVER ever work for the State of CO.  All we hear is do more with less, A LOT less.  Do you have something like pay for performance?  We have it, they call it the PMAP.  A MAJOR JOKE and lie!  There is no way to ever get a peak performer.  Sorry, I am rambling I think.

  43. No prob…I work for a glass company with about 70 employees total. No performance pay, just do your job and try not to screw it up. I’ve come close to quitting several times but who wants to start over at 49 years old?

  47. My representatives (Sue Windels and Bill Crane are you listening?) better spend wisely or else.  Democrats are going to show that they are the best stewards of the peoples money.

    And Democrats are listening to this exchange above about healthcare?  Are you listening to how people of all political ideologies are suddenly in the same boat and are scared to death about the state of healtcare in this country?  Political consultants do you you want your magnet?  Its right up above, just look up.

  48. I sympathize with both state employee and gecko.  I always ask my boss for a raise to what it takes to support a family these days — and he always counters by threatening to pay me what I’m worth.
    Oh, man.

  49. marshall collins,

    Here is the link where I got the quote:

    http://www.gmu.edu/departments/economics/wew/quotes/wisdom.html

    It link’s to Walter Williams page at George Mason University.  Go ahead and look around you may actually learn something. 

    And Marshall, you have a serious hatred problem.  I have not once called you names, or accused you of lying, or made personal attacks, but you do on a daily basis.  You should really think about getting some counseling.

  50. And if you actually go to Mr. Williams website which doesn’t hide the fact he is right wing he doesn’t source the quote either.

    It’s an easy question – can you or anyone else source the quote?

    I am definitely sick of people making stuff up.

  51. I first heard that Franklin quote 40 years ago, marshall.  I don’t know the source but as I recall, the version you cite would be an over simplified version of one of his essays.  But it doesn’t ring false to me.  The founding fathers were extraordinarily oriented to defending property, hostile to labor, and imbued with an abiding distrust of the common people.  They originally intended for the electoral college to pick the president, they were so distrustful of the masses.  They had the Senate appointed by legislatures to keep the rabble out. Read Page Smith’s “A New Age Now Begins” to get a good read on the men behind the faces on our coins and currency.  My own favorite Franklin quote is his explanation for why he liked to bed down with older women: “They don’t yell, they don’t swell, and they’re grateful as hell.”

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