President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%↑
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd
(D) Adam Frisch
52%↑
48%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
50%
50%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
November 04, 2005 09:00 AM UTC
59 Comments
I think that Hickenlooper may be far too socially liberal to win the general. He has only won one election. The anti-tax forces in this state are gunning for blood. And then there is Nuclea Waste…
http://polstate.com/2005/04/10/co-hickenloopers-achilles-heel/
Hickenlooper had his picture taken with a drag queen so he can’t run for governor? That’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard. You don’t think every politician on earth has dozens of odd pictures taken at parades and events?
Aren’t you the same guy who said that the no on C&D people were outraising the yes on C&D people when it turned out the yes campaign raised more than twice as much money? You might want to give up the punditry business.
I doubt that Hickenlooper will get in, but the passage of Ref C at least makes it a possibility. If C had failed, nobody but a masochist would have wanted the job, which would have consisted of trying to dismantle the state in orderly fashion.
Well, MarylandPols this is not. Ehrlich “relatively popular”?? The guy has repeatedly made a fool out of himself. “Unenviable task”?? Either O’Malley or Duncan would be a solid favorite in a state that went 55 – 42 for Kerry. C’mon.
Oh, take the Hick! Please! He can jump out of planes and not land on his head and he is–I swear!–the Big Blue Bear.
Gawd, I rhymed.
Seriously folks, I’d like to see the Hick ride into, oh, say Lamar on his Vespa and give his spiel about housing the homeless (at least $1.5Mil per year for the next ten years) instead of updating Denver’s firefighting aparatus and adding police officers to the force.
I do wonder how that would play in the flatlands? (Nothing implied here, Voyegeur. Just talking about the Great American Desert, the Great Plains!)
No offense taken, George. Until you’ve skied Yuma County, you don’t know what boredom is!
If Hick gets in – Beauprez gets out. Bob can’t possibly survive a nasty primary (and yes, it will be nasty) *plus* win the general against a force like Hick. Hick is the only one the BB supporters are really worried about, and my ten cents says right now – they’re really considering that deadline of the 15th.
With Hickenlooper’s popularity in a metro area of 2 million – and his popularity does indeed spread into the suburbs and along the Front Range – he may not need a ton of rural/eastern plains/western slope support.
He’s so popular around Denver he could actually draw people out on election day who might not otherwise vote, offsetting losses in the hinterlands.
Good, LittletonLib. Take him. Run him up the flagpole. If he’s essentially a politician–which I’ve argued for some time that he is–rather than a sincerely committed, um, what’s the word, public servant? liberal idealist? Yes, if he is the self-promoting, self-agrandizing politician I think he is, he’ll now jump at the opportunity to run for Governor. Guarantee it!
He’s definitely a politician, George, everybody in public office is. But he’s also a politician with a very young child. He just doesn’t want the stress of a statewide campaign. It’s one thing to walk North Denver by day and be home for dinner. It’s quite another to live the next six months at the holiday Inn in Swink and disrupt your family life. Plus, being mayor is a helluva lot more fun. Yeah, the party would love him to run but I just don’t think he will.
Margaret,
Neither Blogicus, myself, nor anyone at MHD ever said that the Pro on C side “were outraising the yes on C&D people.” Blogicus is our conservative analyst, we strive for balance, which is lacking amongst the prognosticoti.
As for the Hickenlooper-Nuclea Waste stuff, I saw that when I came on board this summer. I told Blogicus it was “much ado about nothing.” He is a Republican, so he thinks it could give the GOP an edge.
The 150-lb. gorilla right now isn’t Hick (even though Pols soooo desperately seems to want Hick in); instead, it is Romanoff. There is a careful dance going on right now — like runners a couple of minutes before a race starts at the starting line — and if/when Romanoff publicly says “No,” you’re going to see about 3 or 4 “second-tier” Dems (including, I think, Gordon) get in this race.
On the other hand, if Romo says “Yes,” everybody — and I mean everybody — backs off. The grassroots Dem activists are crazy about Romo. At that point, Ritter may even re-evaluate whether he stays in, or if he re-focuses to the AG race… There’s no way Ritter even comes close to Romo in a primary, much less a state assembly…
*COMMENT REMOVED
If you want to cut and paste huge chunks of text, do it somewhere else.
Wrong place to post a promotional piece, Andy. The dead guvs will take it down as soon as they spot it. This Coloradopols blog is about…duh…colorado politics.
Now Peter has become Andy.
Voyageur: Good points on the Hick. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
As to Andy’s “Cycle Slut” monologue, yup, good work you guys, but Colorado Pols tends more toward the machinations of other kinds of, um, (dare I say it!) sluts.
God, I love politics.
Gotta admit it, George, I’m starting to take a shine to you. Anybody who knew Mike Pomponio can’t be all bad.
I put better numbers on Ken Gordon running than either Romanoff or Hick. Ken has been angling for statewide publicity for several years now. Hick has convincingly stated that he won’t run. Romanoff would start two years in advance if he were going to run . . . not his style to do anything without having his ducks lined up in a row.
Actually, Voyageur, I was in college when I first sat in Mike Pomponio’s DX restaurant with my father–who knew Mike quite well (and admired him immensely)–where there were so many pictures of so many faces I knew from newspapers and televison. It was a honor to meet Mr. Pomponio and, actually, to interact with him for several years thereafter. One of my favorite photos of my father is the one where he is posing with Mike.
Mike Pomponio was a master politician who maintained a sincere interest and concern for the little guy. He cherished Northwest Denver, as do I.
No, I’m not all bad. Just a little…
I was not… I was posting in reply to “And then there is Nuclea Waste…” Its a fundraising group, I know yes in drag but lets see you raise over 100K for good causes.
I am sorry for posting something so long.
A
SoCoDem, you said “The grassroots Dem activists are crazy about Romo”.
Wait… there are actually people out there, besides the Dem activists, who aren’t crazy about Romanoff??
I like Hick but he’s an untested one term mayor. And although everybody loves him, he has done nothing of substance as mayor and nothing bad has happened to the city forcing him to prove his leadership abilities. I don’t think he has the political experience or gravitas to be governor.
He can jump out of airplane pretty well but I don’t think he can govern a state, at least not yet.
I was not… I was posting in reply to “And then there is Nuclea Waste…” Its a fundraising group, I know yes in drag but lets see you raise over 100K for good causes.
I am sorry for posting something so long.
A
I like Hick but he’s an untested one term mayor. And although everybody in Denver loves him, he’s really done nothing of substance as mayor and nothing bad has happened to the city forcing him to prove his leadership abilities. I don’t think he has the political experience or gravitas to be governor.
He can jump out of an airplane pretty well but I don’t think he can govern a state, at least not yet. Right now Hick (and romo too) is a Denver liberal with little state wide appeal. In a few years Hick and Romo will both have more weight and a better chance of winnning a statewide race.
When I was canvassing for the Democrats, I couldn’t believe how many irate Republicans proudly told me “the mayor of Denver is a Republican.” I never bothered to correct them. Hickenlooper plays well in the suburbs because he has a business background. That gives him a bigger crop of potential voters than any other Dem currently in the race.
I like Hick but he’s an untested one term mayor. And although everybody loves him, he has done nothing of substance as mayor and nothing bad has happened to the city forcing him to prove his leadership abilities. I don’t think he has the political experience or gravitas to be governor.
He can jump out of airplane pretty well but I don’t think he can govern a state, at least not yet.
Prog Matic:
FasTracks, the new jail, now the passage of Ref C, huge approval ratings. That’s a lot of substance.
Balmer has the support of both Beauprez and Holtzman partisans.
He will be the next minority leader of the House.
Beauprez despite Balmer’s backing comes in second. Beauprez showed his mettle in both 2004 and 2005. Where was Bob when no less than four Jefferson County candidates all lost by less than three percentage points? Answer nowhere despite Beauprez having an easy race and a double digit lead.
All for Beauprez and Beauprez for Beauprez. That is why Mr. Inevitable is now Mr. Second Place
The Big Hick thinks he’s a liberal. Ha! He isn’t. He?s a solid moderate, businessman and political booster. He was chummy with Governor Bill Owens (even before both supported C&D). Democrat voters are no different than Republicans voters so long as they glom on to candidates who can self-finance. Vote for the rich guy! Yeah! Maybe he will put his buddies (who lack experience) into so important positions like Chief of Staff and DPS Superintendent. We sure need a lot more investment bankers and business owners in political positions! They?re great at politics BECAUSE they lack experience. How novel! Democrats want to win the Governors Office so badly that they?re happy to look beyond his Mayoral policies?which look substantially anti-democratic to me. But what do I know, I call myself a liberal! By the way, are all the Democrats in Denver ready to deal with all the REST of the Colorado Democrats who don?t know or care who John Hickenlooper is? The name Udall has more statewide reach, and I hope that The Bick Hick realizes that.
Let us examine the Mayor’s record vs. his real life opponent Bob Beauprez. Bob is a leader in Congress, built a far more successful business than did Hickenlooper and will match the Mayor dollar for dollar in the General election.
The Mayor has presided over an 8% increase in crime, a real estate market that saw values in his own downtown neighborhood drop 4% in one quarter alone and the highest tax rate by far in the State.
I think Ned Farmer is right. I live in Colorado Springs and couldn’t care less about Hickenlooper. He will have to prove his case to the people of the state for what he has supposedly done. There is more to Colorado than Denver.
Ken Gordon is ego-centric enough to believe he can win, and silly enough to believe that his C&D direct mail piece worked to get C passed. It didn’t! His “. . . arguments for your stupid brother-in-law . . .” theme pissed off so many people–DEMOCRATS, that is. Republicans would love a race with him in the mix. It would allow Republicans to save money on negative campaigning.
You forgot the most damaging thing about Hickenlooper, GoBobGo. His attempt to straddle all the issues has fastened the Nickname “Both Ways Hickenlooper” on him. Or have I confused him with some other politician?
Andrew Romanoff is pretty busy these days–inside and outside of the State House. He won’t run for Governor just yet. If potential candidates are waiting for him to make decisions, before they jump, then they aren’t very well informed. A source of mine said he was attending DU Law School part time. If so, why would he quit a cool gig in The House, and DU (on the side)? He’s building a pretty good resume, that as soon as it’s filled out, will place him nicely into any statewide office. He might want to do it before he loses much more hair though, because his pretty-boy good looks are fading away–and he ain’t getting any taller neither!
GoBobGo, I have to differ with you on who has been more successful in the business world.
Right again in terms of Hick v. BB on the networth front, ohwilleke. But my secret source says that by shifting emphasis on who has the most money, Beauprez is just preparing to withdraw from the race and throw his support behind Holtzman. Marc doesn’t have much in the way of qualifications, but he and his daddy can sure write big checks.
My one real question about Romanoff is what is he gonna do in 2008 if he does not run for a statewide office this time?
He is term limited in 08, the Senate seat where he lives will be in mid-term that year. The only statewide seat will be US Senate which Udall is the presumptive Dem candidate for already. And I don’t forsee DeGette stepping down from her Congress seat by then.
Andrew just doesn’t strike me as the type of guy who will sit out for 2 years waiting for his State Senate district to open up.
If he does not run for Govenor, I have thought that his work on Ref C&D may be a lead up to Treasurer (usually viewed as the precursor to Gov.).
Right. Andrew won’t stay out of office because he CAN’T. Nobody digs politics as much as he does–nobody. And, he’s damn find at doing his homework and playing the game. He might be shopping around for something else–that’s true–a temporary place to land maybe? Perhaps he needs to make some REAL money to finance a big race. I dunno. For sure, he can’t stay away for long, but I don’t think he absolutely has to find another office.
As for Holtzman, the Queen at DU decided that soon after hiring his Lady in Waiting (President Marc), that he’d made a huge mistake?he was universally hated. But the fantastically wealthy don’t eat their own, so the no-nothing and do-nothing, slid off to do more of the same for our beloved state–bupkiss. Do rainmakers like Holtzman ever coax anything from the clouds, or do they spend their parents money, build their resumes and buy their offices? For those who think Holtzman has potential, I?d say they are right?-if we want him to beautify the Downtown Denver skyline with phallic-shaped State buildings. The only thing to fear from Holtzman is his scandalous amount of scratch. And that could make him a kingmaker?-never a king. He already had his chance to be the Queen of DU, and he managed to muddle that. His royalty days are over before they began. ?Hey Marc? Why don’t you holtz this while I take a leak. Piss boy? Piss boy!?
I’m from Maryland and you’re wrong about Maryland because Doug Duncan has been running for governor for 8 years, and has millions of dollars. O’Malley could only match, not easily defeat Duncan.
Dan, that’s what scares me too. What’s Andrew going to do after 2008? Is there anyway that after he is re-elected in 2006, he can move in to CD-2 and take over for Udall?
Udall one his seat getting 67% of the vote. Could we get Romanoff into Udall’s seat in Congress? That would be cool.
Pacified, I have wondered that too, but it is no secret that Fitz-Gerald will be running for that seat now that she has decided not to go for Gov. It had been her plan in 04 when Udall started running for the seat Salazar won.
A Joan vs. Andrew primary for the congress seat culd be possible, but unlikely. If we lose CD7 this year, that would be a more likely target for Andrew. But there is a pretty good chance we will win in CD7 so I doubt he is banking on that scenario either.
Right now, if he does anything besides run for re-election for his house seat, I would guess Treasurer, although Gov. is still a possibility, expecially if no one else steps up to primary Ritter.
Right, Fitz-Gerald. Thank you. If she and Andrew squared off in any district, it would be bad for each of them, not to mention bad for the Democrats. The Dems feel like both of them are key to the future of the party. He’s in charge; she’s tough. She may be a tougher “guy” than Andrew. Udall moving up–sometime, somewhere–that’s for certain. His name is huge in Colorado, and in the region. Someone should find out who each of these people has on retainer as a real estate agent. Maybe that ZERO, Rutt Bridges can get behind some of these candidates, but my guess is his movtivation is less about the party, than it is about him. Self-financed cadidates don’t usually make stops at the party HQs, except to be polite. Fitz-Gerald and Romanoff NEED the the machines more than anyone. Maybe someone can get Diana DeGette to move over–or to just MOVE OUT. She’s a total lightweight, and not terribly bright (just ask some of her fellow CC graduates).
Please tell me.
How does John Hickenlooper explain away an 8% increase in crime?
I know that one and all considers him unbeatable. Just tell me how he explains far and away the highest increase in crime ever in Denver and far and away the highest increase in the entire State. Do we really want John Hickenlooper to do to the rest of the State what he has done to Denver? Hey that might be a good slogan for Bob Beauprez who actually has a substantive record.
First of all, The Big Hick won’t run. So, explaining away a crime statistic is different if you are a Mayor, than a candidate for Governor. That said, your statement regarding ” . . . crime in Denver increase is what’s in store for Colorado . . .” message is not the least bit clever–as a slogan or a thought. A good political operative would make statements like that go away with ease. And, I am not ever sure a crime rate statistic like that is even something that a critic (candidate or arm-chair pudit) would even add to the short list of messages used for attack. Even if it was, it would probably be somewhere way down on the list–lost in the static and other minutiae.
Interesting theory Ned.
Crime goes up 8%.
Biggest jump forever. The Mayor hires the Police Chief. Crime is going down in many big cities and throughout Colorado.
But, crime is going up in Denver. This is an issue that you say can easily be dealt with.
Sorry, Ned this reflects dead on with the issue of competency. I know liberals who live in well protected neighborhoods don’t consider crime an issue. Average people do.
Not Andrew Romanoff but the real Romo
Bill Romanowksi,Catholic a winner, and he is lean, mean and now he is clean
Interesting and uninteresting statisical snapshots can be spun in many ways–that isn’t new or creative. It might mean something and it might mean nothing–in reality. Politicially of course, it is a different story. As mayor, he will address an 8% of this , or -3% of that differently than if he was running for Gov. He won’t run. So, Bob can make a run for governor attacking the Mayor of Denver for 8% of this or -3% of that, and someone may say–why in the heck is BB talking about the Denver crime rate when (as you say) the crime rate went down everywhere else? So, what you have done is speculate (and propose) a “clever” strategy thata won’t likly be used? Huh, that sounds like arm-chair punditry to me–or conservative talk radio. Either way, that dog don’t hunt. Stats without support are fun to spin, and pretty darn easy to spin back. Spitballing strategies is for political pros, and I am resigned to the fact that conservatives will continue to use Willie Horton-like arguments to attack liberals whatever the crime rate is. As we all know, conservatives are the law and order party–and thank goodness for that. There is plenty of crime in my west Denver neighborhood, but the cops scare me way more than the criminals–especially when the Denver PD starts buzzing my back yard.
Is it more important for our party to put forth the most liberal of candidates in show of our conviction to the pro-choice issue or put forth a democrat who possesses the character to build a bipartisan following that would allow a democrat to become governer of this red state. Ritter is a democrat who has won elections in liberal Denver. He is also a democrat that was a farmer and is a religious family man that will win votes from El Paso, Larimer, Mesa, Las Animas, etc … you know the rest of the state, those places that consistently make Colorado a Red State. But hey maybe yall are right, maybe abortion is such a supertrait in the race for governor … lets push for a candidate who doesn’t relate one bit to the rest of the state, lose to yet another conservative republican…but hey atleast we would have succeeded in not electing any pro-life candidate. Oops, the republicans will, and they’ll have a candidate that doesn’t agree, support, or promote any of the other key issues of our party. That is if we still have any…does anyone remember when education and healthcare for the masses was the supertraits of our party? Ritter seems to be the only democratic candidate who really wants the job, really cares about education and healthcare for the masses, and seems to be Colorado enough to win votes from outside of Denver…if the entire party gets behind him, he is the democrat with the best chance of winning against the republicans. Remember those polls (and yes I mean polls plural),in a statewide election Ritter beats the republican, we just have to let him out of the primary.
1) Ritter won uncontested races in Denver.
2) Ritter’s campaign has shown no evidence that they will try very hard in the area outside of Denver/metro and his campaign staff has historically followed the “win big in metro to carry the state” model that just does not work for Dems.
3) It will be too easy for the media to lump Ritter and Beauprez in the same category on too many topics and make them too hard to tell apart to the average voter. The partisans will get it but they make up a tiny percent of the over all vote. If they look alike the GOP has the advantage due to voter registration and point #4 below.
4) Ritter does not motivate the Dem base. Without that motivation the “average voters” are more likely to look elsewhere or not even show up. Furthermore the the right-wing voters are going to be well motivated in 06 with anti-gay and anti-immigrant ballot issues on the same ballot.
If the Dems have any shot at this, we need a candidate who not only motivates our base but also has wide-spread appeal to the masses in general. This leaves us with Romanoff or Hickenlooper. Both of these men are comfortable in their current positions and not real keen on giving them up, but their party and their state need them so I am still hoping one of them will make the move.
STATS WITHOUT SUPPORT?
Duh!
Crime went up eight per cent that is 8% with Hick in charge.
How will Bob use that?
Pretty damned simple.
Crime in Denver under John Hickenlooper had the biggest increase since such Statistics were kept.
While crime went down everywhere else in Colorado and in other big cities it saw a dramatic increase in Denver
Can We Trust John Hickenlooper with out State’s future
simple but powerful
85 of this or 3% of that Come on Ned, deal with the facts
Wow, GoBobGo. You are a superstar. I sure hope you are working for the campaign, because your stuff is pure genius. Will you admit you were wrong later? Nah, we know that “looking toward the future” is what visionaries do, even after they have made bad decisions or sugegsted silly stragegies. Hick won’t run; thus the brilliant crime strategy is unuseable. Romanoff won’t run either So after all of the arm-chair puditry is done, will you say Ned Farmer was right? Of course not. Thanks for the fun. I’m gone.
Latest poll on O’Malley – Ehrlich matchup. So much for the “unenviable task.”
Wild Dog, you ave be registered with the Sun to get that article. Can you please tell us what the numbers were?
The voters are going to be motivated as a result of heightened concerns about the economy, education, and healthcare so I agree that we need a candidate that appeals to the masses.
Ritter’s campaign has been working outside of the metro area. He’s gotten great publicity and feedback on the western slope, in the southern portion of colorado, etc. So the win big in the metro area thing isn’t correct.
And Somehow I think the media and voters won’t confuse a millionaire businessman or Ivy League academic with a Colorado farmboy turned public servant. Ritter doesn’t look like them, sound like them, and their backgrounds are completely different. For clarity, Bill Ritter is the only candidate who was born in colorado, raised in colorado, went to school in colorado, and has served the people of colorado throughout his life. Those are the characteristics that will differentiate Ritter with the media and the voters.
You said that “If the Dems have any shot at this, we need a candidate who not only motivates our base but also has wide-spread appeal to the masses in general.” But then you proceed to support who?…I don’t know, maybe you’re right, maybe a millionaire businessman or ivy league academic has more appeal to the people than a candidate who is of the people…it seems to work for the republicans but I thought we were trying to differentiate ourselves?
Getting the candidate into the other areas of the state is not the same as putting the campaign into other areas of the state.
John Kerry had a lot good feedback in the western slope and the rural areas as well, but the campaign did nothing with that support. If Ritter’s campaign does truly campaign in the whole state it will be a different strategy than that group of politicos has used in their collective past. Unfortunately we will not if I am right on wrong on this one until it too late to do anything about it.
Dan –
O’Malley 48% vs. Ehrlich 33%
Duncan 42% vs. Ehrlich 37%
Bill Ritter is a recognized name and is the leader in the polls Let’s all get behind him and not split the vote as the Republicans are doing. The strength in numbers!
veckteko
veckteko