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December 02, 2007 06:44 AM UTC

Obama pulls ahead for Democrats in Iowa

  • 9 Comments
  • by: ColObama

From the DesMoines Register

Barack Obama has pulled ahead in the race for Iowa’s Democratic presidential caucuses, while the party’s national frontrunner Hillary Clinton has slipped to second in the leadoff nominating state, according to The Des Moines Register’s new Iowa Poll.

Despite the movement, the race for 2008’s opening nominating contest remains very competitive about a month before the Jan. 3 caucuses, just over half of likely caucusgoers who favor a candidate saying they could change their minds.

Obama, an Illinois senator, leads for the first time in the Register’s poll as the choice of 28 percent of likely caucusgoers, up from 22 percent in October. Clinton, a New York senator, was the preferred candidate of 25 percent, down from 29 percent in the previous poll.

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who led in the Register’s May poll, held steady with 23 percent, in third place, but part of the three-way battle.

He’s leading with women, youth voters and first-time caucusgoers.

In the new poll, Obama leads with support from 31 percent of women likely attend the caucuses, compared to 26 percent for Clinton. In October, Clinton was the preferred candidate of 34 percent of women caucusgoers, compared to 21 percent for Obama.

Women represent roughly six in 10 Democratic caucusgoers, according to the new poll.

Obama also dominates among younger caucusgoers, with support from 48 percent from those younger than 35. Clinton was the choice of 19 percent in that group and Edwards of 17 percent.

The under-35 bloc represents 14 percent of Democratic caucusgoers, up from 9 percent in the October poll.

Obama has an advantage among first-time caucusgoers. He also leads among people who say they definitely will attend the caucuses.

Keep the good news going!

To join the movement, head over to Colorado for Barack Obama and find an event near you. The campaign is hosting voter registration drives, caucus trainings, debate watching parties and other exciting events throughout the state

Comments

9 thoughts on “Obama pulls ahead for Democrats in Iowa

      1. –Frank Rich in today’s NYTimes (op ed)

        –Maureen Dowd, also in today’s Times…

        (both at nyt.com, now freely available to all)

        …to say nothing of the cover of The Atlantic.

        Damn good timing for Obama Redux! AND the growing sense that the only thing that’s inevitable about HRC is the hot air going out of her balloon with total deflation scheduled for around the first week in January!

    1. Chris Bowers writes

      Now, it appears to me that Obama has done more than just pass Clinton. Today, for the first time ever, I now project Barack Obama as narrowly ahead in the overall nomination campaign. In the extended entry, I explain how I came to this conclusion.

      Read more from Is Obama Winning? My Best Guess Says Yes which has a pretty good break down of the early states and polling trends.

      1. I like the optimism (I’m an Obama supporter), but the logic there is shaky at best.  Starting from a virtual tie in Iowa, the next step somehow assumes that Obama not only wins Iowa, but gets a 14-point bounce from it going into NH.  Unlikely, unless things change a lot.  Looking at past effects of Iowa wins is misleading, unless one considers the magnitude of the win.

        Iowa looks hopeful, but by no means in the bag.  It will take a lot of hard work, and some luck.  New Hampshire looks like even more of a long shot.  Wins there would definitely put Obama on top of the race; but losses in either one could make SC and the Feb 5 states like Colorado very important.  And the huge number of states on the fifth makes connecting with voters less relevant, and the media game more important, so Clinton is playing her strongest game there.

        We’ll see.  I’m looking at spending New Year’s in Iowa.  You?

        1. The Bowers post makes clear that his conclusion is based on the experience of 2000 and 2004. Not a matter of “shaky logic” at all–and he also makes clear that there are no guarantees when it comes to projections.

          BUT the signals are pointing in the direction, and the real obstacle now is overcoming the perception of who’s going to win. And in this area, judging from covers on Time, Atlantic, and columns in today’s NYT, for starters, it’s hard to avoid the conclusions that a) Obama has gained the mega-momentum, putting HRC in defensive mode, and b) there is a growing school of thought that says Obama is the best candidate to go up against the Republicans, whereas HRC is dragging soooo much baggage and so many strong negatives that she is the candidate the GOP would most like to face, hence a virtual endorsement by GWB and Rove…

          A perception of inevitability is a mighty weak reed indeed, and  can change literally overnight–is already changing. Besides that, what does HRC have going? Even the feminist vote seems to be up for grabs–ironically, not unlike the African American vote (see NYT front page).

          1. And here, my knowledge of math has to trump my support of Obama.  Obama would make a great president, and I think it’s pretty obvious he would be a much stronger candidate than Clinton in the general election, as well.  I’m just saying that he’s still got some work ahead of him against Clinton for the nomination.

            But the article there gives a long list of things, each of which are just barely probable.  Each one assumes that the last one worked out right.  The argument goes like this.  First, Obama is in the best position right now to win Iowa (yes, he is).  If he wins Iowa, it’ll probably be a toss-up, maybe even slightly in his favor in New Hampshire (toss up, yes; odds in his favor, probably no).  Sweeping those two states would make him the clear favorite in South Carolina (definitely).  If he wins two or three of those, he’ll be in a better position for Feb 5 states (probably true).

            The problem is, each of these events assumes the previous ones; instead of considering the probability of each separately, you have to multiply the probabilities together.  Suppose he’s got a 60% chance in Iowa, then conditionally on that, a 50% change in NH, and then a 75% in SC of those two turn out, and then another 60% of winning most Feb. 5 states assuming those.  Then that comes out to only a 13.5% chance of things turning out that way.

            Be vigilant, and keep working.  There is more to do.

  1. Mayor Cownie was elected in 2007 with 80% of the vote. Mayor Cownie has emerged as a national leader on environmental issues and Barack said he looks forward to working side-by-side with him in the months and years to come.

    Here’s some of what Mayor Cownie had to say this morning:

    The real promise of Senator Obama’s presidency isn’t just the plans he’ll bring with him into the White House, it’s the visionary leadership he’ll demonstrate once he gets there. Barack Obama will put an end to the bitter partisanship that’s stopped us from making progress on the urgent challenge of global warming. He’ll tell the American people what they need to hear, not just what they want to hear. As President, he’ll restore America’s standing in the world and lead a global effort to meet this challenge once and for all.

    Read more from Radio Iowa on the Shifts in Political Fortune

  2. his march towards has been politician. Enough of his people who like Obama as a second choice are going to really start breaking away if the Obama perception sets in. I don’t think college kids are going to take Obama over the top — it’ll be former Edwards supporters.  

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