U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Michael Bennet
(D) Phil Weiser
60%↑
50%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Jena Griswold
(D) David Seligman
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) A. Gonzalez
(D) J. Danielson
(R) Sheri Davis
50%
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(D) Jeff Bridges
(R) Kevin Grantham
40%
40%
30%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Trisha Calvarese
(D) Eileen Laubacher
90%
20%
20%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Manny Rutinel
(D) Yadira Caraveo
45%↓
40%↑
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
November 06, 2007 12:55 AM UTC
74 Comments
Udall is winning on all polls. They need to be careful and not get cocky. At this time, they really need to get out there and win over the indis.
and not get cocky, but the SUSA poll showed indies breaking 5:3 for Udall, which is pretty good at this point.
The reason is that the vast majority of the “undecided” is going to be indi or pubs. The reason is that about 99% of the dems will say that they are voting for Udall, since they are certain that Udall has this won (MOST likely he has). OTH, the pubs will try to keep quiet on their vote so as to confuse udall. If half of those undecided are pubs masquerading, that means that they will vote for schaeffer (or any pub, even david duke, etc. 🙂 ). So if the pubs can get more than 1/2 of the remainder (i.e. more than of 3/4 of the “undecided”), then they will most likely win.
Keep in mind that the pubs KNOW that they are massive underdogs here (and in most election). They have shown that they will do whatever it takes to win.
most Republicans (or Democrats for that matter) will not be thinking that analytically/strategically when answering a poll. And if there are any doing that, it is certainly not near 1/2 of the total undecideds. Sorry if that seems simplistic, but I think there’s a big difference between the discussion board of coloradopols and the living rooms across the state in terms of thinking of and analyzing poll responses. Even here actually, remember DDHGLQ? S/He was a pretty active Pub and they didn’t think that Schaffer was a massive under-dog by any means. So yes, Udall needs to continue this ratio, but the fact that he has an edge already is a good sign for the months ahead as that undecided number drops.
I have talked to some of my pub friends and they tell me that they are encouraged to NOT answer these polls, or better to skew them. I do not know how real it is.
That made me smile. I don’t think the vast majority of people analyze poll results in living rooms or at kitchen tables.
such an intelligent posting of your own.
Normally I do write why. But your post seemed like such an incredible overreach I was at a loss as to where to start.
8% is way too much for a group of ppl to play with the polls?
Especially for them all to independently do so without any effort to coordinate it.
Your premise is that maybe HALF of the people who might actually vote for Schaffer are “masking” – i.e., pretending they WON’T vote for him – in order to give Udall supporters false confidence?
Um, I have to agree with DavidThi: that is about the most cockamamie rationalization I’ve ever heard of. Unless there’s some sort of study out there that says this is a predictable phenomenon, I just don’t buy it.
Think about it: wouldn’t they want to say they’re voting for Schaffer in order to pump up their fellow Schaffer supporters?
I think the only time people actually hide their preferences to pollsters is when they know they shouldn’t feel the way they do, and they’re ashamed. Like when so many people said they were against Amendment 2 (gay oppression)* and then voted for it.
*That’ll get a rise out of someone.
Now, I’ll grant you that given Schaffer’s performance so far, it’s entirely possible that some people are so ashamed about him that they don’t WANT to admit to a pollster that they’re still thinking of voting for him. But that’s another premise altogether.
I said maybe half of the undecided, which currently is 16%, is masking. So that means up to 8% are hiding what they will vote. You are saying that 8% is out of line? I do not think so.
After all, Tancredo’s paltry percentage of supporters really don’t think he has a snowball’s chance in hell of winning. In effect, they’re “masking” their vote for a REAL candidate with a prayer.
doing any one thing, much less masking, seems insanely high. People who are interested enough in this stuff to read and comment on blogs tend to have more friends who are interested too so what a poster’s “Republican friends” are saying is hardly scientific. If anything it’s more likely that half the undecided just aren’t paying enough attention at this point to have a clue.
Also, in the last election independent voters strongly favored Dems in most races. It’s unlikely that more than half of them state wide will go R in 2008.
That said, these are not numbers that are anything to write home about for Udall.
Are just average voters who probably aren’t really paying attention and likely couldn’t name both candidates without getting some help.
The sample is suppose to be random which would lend itself towards making my statement invalid .
They mean little, as asserted by others here.
The question remains: Will the hard left Udall and the hard right Schaffer move to the middle convincingly enough to win?
Won’t know that until the campaign begins next year.
was hard left. Trotskyite? Stalinesque? More ChiCom flavor? Please do tell.
When you put “Boulder” in front of “liberal,” or “Democrat,” or “left,” or even “Republican” – it’s automatically several degrees harder to the left. Or so some believe.
How can this race be so close?
Remember, these polls were taken before Wadhams came on board. Wadhams magic was on display today with the drilling on the Roan issue.
Udall has put audiences to sleep all over the State.
Schaffer may pull off an upset if the Democrats are not careful.
I’m not against the concept of peace, I just think it’s a waste of money.
There’s already a department charged with peaceful international interactions by our country: the State Department. We just need a president who will name a Sec. of State who’s a diplomat, and then let him/her do his/her job properly.
We don’t need another bureaucratic boondoggle to suck up more of Gecko’s tax dollars.
We in America prefer tougher-sounding departments, like the Department of Heimland Security.
We just need to switch that pooftish name “Department of Defense” back to “Department of WAR”!
Looks like the three polls, while they have wildly different overall numbers, are pretty consistent with the averages.
Looks like Ciruli didn’t push as much as SUSA or the Schaffer campaign’s pollster, which suggests there as of last month there was still some softness in the support levels.
Udall is pushing the magical 50% number in the latest survey; if he goes over that mark, Schaffer’s going to have a hard time generating the positive momentum he really needs to make up ground.
All three are liberal polls! Even Schaffer’s internal polling was done by a liberal pollster! The unions are behind this! They must be push polls and we all know we can get a poll to say anything we want!
Did I nail all the Cons talking points?
(Operative word being “almost”)
I do not agree with him, but some of the things that he says are right on, and others are interesting. Of course, that does not mean that he is wild about my comments.
BS is to conservative to swing the Indies. Udall is on pace to another Dem victory in Colorado. Feels good to be a Dem!
That says several things:
They said that they would get us out of Iraq. But they are failing it. Many indis see that dems are taking their time going after W. It should have been quickly, so that the dems could get back to business. W. and his henchman should all be in prison.
In addition, I have noticed that the dems have NOT called up Sibel Edmunds. She represents a lot of what is thought in the intelligence community (not all; there are a number that will accept “my republican, right or wrong”). In particular, I know that sibel’s testimony would take down a few dems as well as a LARGE number of pubs (in particular, I believe Harry Reid). But this says that the dems are willing to overlook pub’s crimes if it means that dems get to go free. Well, one thing to realize is that a number of 3rd party will be pushing this point. They will go on the offensive after pubs AND dems alike.
Indie turnout depends on who the nominees are: If Hillary is the nominee it will turnout the conservatives and it will swing a good amount of Indies. If Rudy is the nominee, BS will have an easier time getting Indies to swing his way. We’ll have to wait and see what the background conditions are before we can confidently predict an outcome. But I have to say, Udall comes across as a moderate so I think he will be the victor.
Given the chance, I don’t think those Indies would vote for the Shrub again.
The polls don’t have him down that much especially taking in account the undecideds. BS has not started campaigning full force yet, and it could definately change as soon as he does. It is a year out from election, plus the tide could change depending on who the nominee for president is.
dbs07- nice spin! I think his initials are a fitting description of your positive analysis, “BS”.
To have a 135,625 Republican registered lead and still be behind in the polls is a terrible showing. For someone that is as inept as “BS”, come from behind could only happen when hell freezes over. Considering how radical right-winged he is, I have a feeling he’ll have lots of CRAZIES praying for it. Lets see what kind of response comes of it.
The registration advantage R’s have clearly hasnt meant much the last 2 cycles. And BS hasnt really started a campaign yet either (that anyone is paying attention to at least).
I definitely side w/ you politico, but if BS can come off to the public as *not* radical right wing, hell shouldnt have to freeze over for this to be a close-ish race. I dont think it will happen…but stranger things have happened. At this point last cycle, who would have thought “2nd choice” Ritter (as many of us called him) would beat BWB by 15-odd points?
This far out – who knows…
When is Bob Schaffer going to announce his candidacy? He did that twice already.
When is BS going to start taking campaign contributions, PAC and lobbyist money? He’s already having DC fundraisers so we know the answer to that question too.
When is BS going to tell us where he stands on the issues that matter the most? Never. He’s waiting for a good issue distract us (like calling HRC a Socialist) from what really matters in Colorado.
BS, the biggest BS’er I’ve never heard speak.
Quite a large number of undecideds. Now if the gap continues to grow and there is no sign of movement, then we will know the answer, but right now we have no clue
But the opinion breakout on Udall and Schaffer tells a pretty interesting tale. Right now Schaffer has one advantage: 48% of the population says they don’t know who he is. If Schaffer can convince them that he’s not the hardline conservative that he’s always been, then he’s got a good chance of making up ground. If not, his favorability deficit just adds to the problems these polls represent.
(BTW – How is it that a 2004 Senate candidate, former Congressman, and current BOE board member has only a 52% name recognition, while a Congressman has an 81% name recognition? That in itself may spell trouble for BS.)
Its because of the Udall’s involvement in politics. That name represents more than just a congressman in Colorado.
… though with so many new Colorado residents, I think Mo Udall’s legacy is not so great as it once was.
My guess is, it’s mostly that Mark Udall is good at getting his name out in public by supporting measures in Congress that mean something to the state.
Udall politicians have been elected from 4 different states: Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Oregon. If viewed as a combined entity, the Udall-Hunt-Lee family has been elected from 6 states: Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, and Utah. They are a very well known family in politics.
How can a prominent 2004 Senate candidate, former CD-3 U.S. Congressman, and current CD-3 State Board of Ed member manage to attain a 48% “unknown” rating?
I am confused BS was never elected to CD 3 he represented CD 4
The Ciruli poll had Udall at 36% and Schaffer at 35%
http://www.rockymoun…
In a state where R’s heavily out number the D’s, Schaffer is having a hard time attracting his own party or any U’s because he’s so out of touch with the mainstream.
Or is BS losing because no one know where stands on the issues?
With Schaffer not taking a stand on any issue, but pointing the finger, isn’t attracting anyone from his party or the middle. BS may think this is the Democrats race to lose, but he’s not even putting up a fight for it.
National generic ballot #’s would show even a greater % of victory for the D over the R, which is a credit to Schaffer for being very competitive on two polls now.
Schaffer is at a very slight disadvantage, but that is only due to the national political climate which is out of his control. The reality is that not anyone but diehards are even paying attention to the race right now making Schaffer’s stand on the “issues” a non-issue.
Seriously, I know the national climate is bad for Republicans because of the terrible administration you guy’s put in power, but polls show that people are disappointed with the Dem’s who are in power, thereby, equaling out the national climate. Schaffer should have a lead right now, even a slight lead, why he doesn’t is a question for you to answer. Your guy “BS” and his radical ways are a joke, maybe thats why he is down in the polls. Not only is “BS” a joke your whole party is corrupt and radical… Maybe thats why he is down in the polls.
Go and ask five random people, not involved in politics, who is running for Senate in 2008 and let me know if you still think that anything Schaffer or Udall have done so far have affected their current poll #’s.
with the polling! and your “BS” is losing!
I can understand why you’re tired, you back Dobson and company with your “conservative group”. It might fly in Northern Colorado but not in this district!
His supporters are being told to run silent, run deep (much like his campaign is running) when polled in order to lull Udall’s supporters into a false sense of security, and hence complacency?
I guess we’ll see how things turn out……
Democrats are predicting a great year in 2008. Yet:
Republicans have run two out of three Gubernatorial races. They won in Louisiana even though Bush is very unpopular there.
Polls show all of the likely Democratic presidentialcandidates in close races or behind
Now, Mark Udall is behind.
George Bush and Dick Cheney are not on the ballot in 2008 and the Democrats may have counted their chickens too soon
Don’t know what polls you’re watching, but nationally, Democrats are leading most of the polling for the Presidential race.
Louisiana governor’s race was a local politics issue and didn’t have much to do with Bush at all.
Udall will have a tough race and he’s acknowledged himself that this is not a Democratic walk-away or a default-Democratic state now. I think this poll is a bit off, but we have a long way to go before anything really crystallizes – we’re 11 months out with no primary contest for the race.
The Dems were both incompetent and corrupt – the surprise was how close it was there.
Of course that 46% was spread among 11 other candidates…
It was the biggest margin in LA history…
Let’s count. Eight percent of two million voters=160,000 voters who are secretly masking their votes one year before the election. There aren’t that many voters in Colorado who have even read a newspaper story about either BS or Mark Udall.
Ritter’s favorables in this poll are only 49%. I’ve never seen him below 70.
I think we’re dealing with a small though detectable R bias in the sample, maybe 5-6 points.
I did it…I held my nose and registered with a party. Then I went home and showered.
But you can relax; I went with the Dems.
The frustrated and depressed RINOs who regularly post in here convinced me that it was futile trying to work towards moderating the GOP from within. Let them finish imploding by purifying themselves further.
This doesn’t mean that I subscribe to everything the Dems stand for. I still think there’s too much rank hypocrisy in the Democratic Party, and I will continue to point it out when I see it.
I think I’ll do the same, but it will have to be tomorrow. Guess I’ll have to go to the elections office just to make sure I get in under the deadline.
They each have to span a little over half the electorate – and get lots of money. I think the system forces hypocrisy on the successful ones.
And yet another call for election reform, courtesy of IRV or other alternative to plurality single-choice voting.
Democracy will require Hypocrisy.
At the caucuses, volunteer to become a precinct committee person. You’ll instantly vault yourself into the County Central Committee, where you can further effect change.
I was about to say pretty much the same thing
When I took econometrics, my professor commented “What does it mean to apply a sophisticated technique to data you made up?” The same question seems to apply to polls.
Between now and November:
1. The Democratic General Assembly will enact several new bills (health care, government spending (son of Ref C), more union stuff, etc.) Schaffer’s appeal depends, in part, on dissatisfaction with the General Assembly.
2. The Democractic and Republican Presidential nominees will be chosen. The appeal of either candidate depends, in part, on the appeal of the Presidential candidate.
3. Congressional antics. If the public is dissatisfied with Congressional actions (or inactions) that may not bode well for Udall.
good points all. None of us has any idea how it will play out.
I wonder if the cuban hero ad is doing it. I saw it yesterday… WHAT A HOOT
It took me lots of reading and head scratching before I noticed the dates on most of the comments in this thread are from last year…