(This is a user diary. Write your own by creating an account and selecting “New Diary” from the menu to the right. – promoted by Colorado Pols)
We have seen on this blog bits and pieces here and there about how the legislative races are shaping up for 2008. I though I would make a post giving the “state of the race” as I see it.
I do not really expect the numbers in the House to change although the D’s and R’s may swap a couple of seats.
Make the jump to see a detailed break-down of where we currently are. For more details you can check out my site: dan-willis.com
Denver
Denver’s seats are decided in the Dem primaries.
HD1, 3, and 5 seem to be spared the primary bullet so far with all incumbents running again. 1 & 3 will likely have token GOP opposition.
HD2 – recently vacancy-elected Mark Ferrandino can probably count on a primary. A couple of people have talked about running, but it has not risen to a level to be reported yet.
HD4 – Jerry Frangas seems to have an irate constituent who has decided to challenge him. Not sure what issue set him off, but he doesn’t seem to have any traction yet.
HD6 – open seat to fill Romanoff’s shoes. There are so far 4 declared Dem candidates with a potentional of up to 2 more. (Can you say free-for-all).
HD7 – A local activist has decided to take on popular Terrance Carroll in a Dem primary. If she gets organized, she could possibly muster enough support for the primary ballot, but I doubt she can unseat a popular incumbent.
HD8 – Open seat replacing Rosemary Marshall. 3 Dem candidates have declared and are going hard at it. I suspect all 3 will be on the ballot, even if one has to petition. There is still rumblings about others jumping in.
HD9 – Open seat replacing Alice Borodkin. 3 Dem cadidates again. These guys are pretty equally matched and I hope all 3 go to the primary…will be a good race to watch.
Boulder
Again, Republicans need not apply
HD’s 11, 12, 13 have safe incumbents running for re-election
HD10 – open seat. so far one announced candidate with a funny name: Dickey Hullinghorst
El Paso
HD’s 14, 16, 18, 19, 20 and 21 have safe incumbents.
HD15 – With Sen. Ron May’s resignation, Rep. Cadman is expected to handily take that Sen seat in a vacancy election, which means this one then opens up to vacancy. This is where Doug Bruce is expected make his next move in his efforts to destroy government. The name Reginald Perry has been floated as a possible readblock for Bruce, but we should know more later this month when the vacancy dust settles
HD17 – Stella Hicks has announced she will not run for the seat she was elected to by a vacancy committee. The Dems are running Chrisitne Varney again who did better than expected in 2006. However, the GOP is trying to convince Mark Cloer to come back. There is reportedly another GOP or two who is looking at it as well.
Jefferson
HD’s 22, 23, 26, 28 and 29 are pretty safe in the hands of the current holders.
HD24 – an open seat to replace Cheri Jahn. 2 Dems have announced. it will likely stay in Dem hands
HD25 – an open seat to replace Rob Witwer. GOP is now heading for a primary. Dems seem oddly upbeat about this seat, but I’m not sure why. The numbers favor an R.
HD27 – Sara Gagliardi scored a major upset over Bill Crane two years ago. The GOP will be targeting this seat, but their candidate has not yet emerged publically.
Adams/Broomfield
Adams is traditionally Democratic and no reason to see that change. Diane Primavera in Broomfield will be a very hard target for the GOP and so far not one they are not aiming at very well.
HD’s 30, 32, 33, 34, and 35 should all stay with their current holders
HD31 – open seat replacing Mary Hodge. 2 announced Dems. Winner of primary will likely skate easily in general.
Arapahoe
HD’s 36, 37 and 41 have safe incumbents.
HD38 – Joe Rice is a Dem representing a heavily GOP district. So far he only has token opposition from the same guy he whipped two years ago, but that will likely change.
HD39 – There will be a rematch of the 2006 fight. It was close enough last time that more party support on the Dem side could make all the difference this time.
HD40 – open seat replacing R-to-D Debbie Stafford. Only announced candidate so far is an R. The district still favors R’s but D’s have picked up ground recently in registration.
HD42 – open seat to replace Michael Garcia. Dem-safe and only candidate so far is State School Board Member (and former county party chair) Karen Middleton
Douglas
HD’s 43, 44, 45 all have safe GOP incumbents
Pueblo
HD’s 47 and 48 have safe incumbents
HD46 – open seat recplacing Dorothy Butcher. This has been a merry-go-round with a County Commissioner seat also up for grabs that then became filled by a vacancy committee. Dorothy has declared she will not run for re-election to this seat leaving it up to two declared Dems so far: a former staffer for Rep. Salazar and a former county party chair.
Larimer & Weld
HD’s 49, 50, 51, 52, and 53 all have safe incumbents, though John Kefalas may get targeted in HD52
Western Slope
HD’s 54, 56, 59 and 60 all have safe incumbents
HD55 – Bernie Buescher is always a favorite target of the GOP. His opponent this time so far is Laura Bradford. Bernie will likely pull it out as he has done before.
HD57 – open seat to replace Al White. Have not heard of any one running here yet.
HD58 – open seat to replace Ray Rose. The GOP has taken quite a beating in this district over some local issues. Dems have a strong candidate. GOP has not announced their candidate yet.
Southern Colorado
HD61 is likely safe with Kathleen Curry
HD62 has incumbent Rafael Gallegos being challenged by at least 2 other Dems. I’m looking forward to that assembly! It’s a safe Dem seat so any primary that may emerge will be the election.
Eastern Plains
HD’s 63, 64, and 65 all have safe incumbents running.
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Tipton will be the R candidate and easily win the seat.
that Crane is going to attempt to win back HD 27 from Gagliardi.
This is my home District. Didn’t know there was another Republican besides Cheri Gerou. Who is it? There was another guy, but he dropped out. I understand well the Dems hopefulness in this district. If they have a good candidate, I think they can win this seat, especially in a good Democratic year. This seat has been trending Dem. It continues to elect Republicans because the Witwers are well respected here and are moderates on some issues (especially the environment). They were also both excellent campaigners and knew how to be visible and take care of their constituents, besides being all around nice guys.
But this district has changed. It is less Republican than it used to be, and the Republicans that are there are of the “Country Club” variety. Many, like me have actually left the Republican Party. The right Democrat can win here. By that I mean an “Ed Perlmutter Democrat.” Moderate, pro-business, liberal on social issues, already connected to the community, been around a long time, ideally a former Republican. That Democratic candidate, given enough money can win this seat.
yes, I believe that there’s another candidate. I wish I could remember her name off hand. Not sure I agree on the viability of a D in this district. As in many places in the state there are some Rs trending to the middle (as you say) but in this district there are some very far right voters that are very active. The Witwers were great legislators, also pretty conservative. They’ll work hard for the R candidate. That will carry some weight in this district.
I’ve been hearing that Josh Hanfling is going to enter this race, but he hasn’t filed yet. Has he got cold feet because there’s been so much noise about the fact that he’s been a D for only a year?
Who’s the other “maybe”?
But from what I have read here it would be roasted by the others if he started gettng any traction.
Romanoff was talking the other day and mentioned a possibility of six candidates. No idea who he was thinking of as #6 but I hear of this person or that person that I never heard of looking at it.
I think that Hanfling must know that his extremist past with the R’s will come out. Wasn’t he part of Colorado Concern or whatever those guys are called? Remember that he has talked about entering races before as an R but he never filed.
The Penny Parker crowd is not what people in this district want. They are going to look pretty skeptically at a guy who became a D last year and spends his time partying. Solid family types like Liz or Russell are going to attract voters here.
I understand, too, that there’s no shortage of personal skeletons. You’d expect this from a “man about town” as Parker calls him.
Ed Perlmutter made mince meat out of Peggy Lamm for supporting Bill Owens for reelection in 2002. Ed attacked Peggy without mercy for that endorsement
Past support for Rick O’Donnell and other Republicans will be an issue.
Isn’t it funny how gaining a majority will change the quality pool of candidates that people have to choose from? With Speaker Romanoff term limited, there is a pool of democratic candidates that are clamoring at the opportunity to hold the seat in District 6. Rumors of Josh Hanfling, Denver’s “Man about town” have certainly made this race more interesting, but I am not convinced that the Democratic Party would be helped with his entry into the race. It would be hard to believe that the people of District 6 would not find out about the right-wing activism. Don’t get me wrong, I am a Republican, and have no problem with activism, but my idealism outweighs any sort of partisan ties. I believe the best person for the job should get the job, and will vote accordingly despite my affiliation. Mr. Hanfling’s constant ‘I am thinking about running’ attitude towards the race (both as a D and a R) doesn’t treat the people, or the office with responsibility that it deserves. I agree that Russell is much better!
Is this the circular firing squad setting up or just somebody close to Liz, Lois or Russell? Interesting to see a few people register just to post about this race and specifically to attack Hanfling. Is he definitely in the race?
Being a Republican in the past is something that I do think he will have to answer and explain to be seriously considered in a Dem primary but if our new rule is that we don’t want any new members of the party, growing the party could be a challenge. Maybe some people just think they’re entitled to the seat because they’ve been around long enough? Sorry, but I believe in merit not just seniority based voting.
Don’t know about Colorado Concern or Hanfling’s involvement but aren’t Farber and Shepherd involved with them now too?
Saying Hanfling has an “extremist past” and claiming there’s “no shortage of personal skeletons” are things somebody better be ready to back up. From what I understand, there are a lot of people in the party that support him and he’s been one of the bigger fundraisers and supporters of the party and candidates. I’ve gotten invites to events where he’s one of the hosts or on the committee for everybody from Polis to Salazar to Morrissey to Ritter and he was pretty involved in the Ref I campaign I believe and is on Udall’s finance committee I think.
I won’t say Hanfling doesn’t have some questions to answer but I’d like to hear from him where he stands on the issues. I’m impressed with what he’s done supporting other people but the bottom line for me is what he wants to do if HE is elected. A lot like Polis – appreciate what he’s done for the party but my vote will be determined in any race by what they plan to do if they get the votes. Let’s keep the personal attacks out of it (unless there are facts to back the up) and hear where each of them stands on healthcare reform, education, the environment. Will they all just spout the standard rhetoric or do any of them have specific ideas or plans for Colorado?
Is Leslie Herod running or did she get cold feet?
Leslie would be a dynamite candidate and the clear favorite to succeed Rosemary Marshall if she chooses to run.
She may be a great girl but there are much better folks running.
If Bruce does get this appointment and runs to keep the seat, it’ll be big for the Dems.
Bruce is reviled enough that, while the Dems probably won’t win due to registration numbers, enough Rs and Ds will be so anti-Bruce that there will be a lot of money and support dumped into that race for the Dem. Dem candidate (only one so far and assumed to be nominee) is Allison Hunter, who ran in 06.