July 23, 2012 07:03 PM UTC

Poll: Who Will Win in HD-3?

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• by: Colorado Pols

The campaign between Democrat Dan Kagan and Republican Brian Watson in HD-3 has become a sort of marquee race for the House this year — odd for a seat which hugs (though no longer includes) left-leaning Denver precincts.

Kagan’s a Democratic favorite in part because of his proclivity to deliver rallying speeches at the microphone — a talent made all that more captivating by his emphatic fist-shaking and that oh-so-charming British accent. While that eloquence is doubtless an asset at the doorstep, Kagan’s re-election is anything but a lock. As one of the legislature’s most outspoken and unabashedly liberal members, Kagan’s going to have to defend his record and reputation in a seat that’s shifted from having a 32.5% Democratic registration lead to one with a .1% Republican tilt. To win, Kagan will need to appeal to the district’s 12,000 unaffiliated voters, much as former State Treasurer Cary Kennedy did when she won the district by about two percentage points in 2010.

Watson, however, has significantly outraised Kagan, bringing in over $100,000 to the Democrat’s $62,000. As a commercial real estate investor, not only does Watson have deep pockets, he has friends with even deeper pockets, and it shows in his fundraising reports. Watson’s also a good fit for the district: he’s a successful, moderate Republican — standard fare for affluent Cherry Hills and Greenwood Village neighborhoods.

The HD-3 race is one of the most competitive in the entire state. That means that Kagan’s fundraising deficit will almost certainly be bolstered by outside spending. This is the kind of seat that Republicans have to win if they want to keep control of the House, of course, so there will be plenty of outside money in Watson’s column too.

We want to know: who do you think will win in HD-3? In other words, which candidate you would put money on to win if the election were held tomorrow? When we last asked this question in March, votes were unanimously cast in favor of Kagan. Since then, of course, huge sums of money have poured into Watson’s war chest. Does it make a difference?

A poll follows.  

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