U.S. Senate
See Full Big Line
(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
See Full Big Line
(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Jena Griswold
60%
60%
40%↓
Att. General
See Full Big Line
(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Alexis King
(D) Brian Mason
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
See Full Big Line
(D) A. Gonzalez
(D) George Stern
(R) Sheri Davis
50%↑
40%
30%
State Treasurer
See Full Big Line
(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%
30%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
See Full Big Line
(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
See Full Big Line
(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
See Full Big Line
(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
See Full Big Line
(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
See Full Big Line
(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
See Full Big Line
(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
See Full Big Line
(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
See Full Big Line
(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Joe Salazar
50%
40%
40%
State Senate Majority
See Full Big Line
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
See Full Big Line
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
April 15, 2011 10:46 PM UTC
20 Comments
Probably just a formatting error, but do Hancock and Mejia need to be flipped?
I saw this around lunch and Hancock was in 3rd with a ‘thumbs up’ and Mejia was 10-1 with the ‘thumb down’?
What gives, I don’t understand, numbers confusing, head hurts????
The line reflects a comprehensive, if unscientific, analysis of the race.
We go through several “big lines” working out the odds and considering all the factors that affect the candidates and their campaigns before we choose to publish one. We accidentally uploaded a first draft of the line instead of the final copy you see before you now.
Hancock and Mejia are similarly positioned; if they both had more money they could reach more voters in time.
I haven’t seen a political candidate run a worse campaign since Bob Beauprez in ’06. Yeah, Boigon has a lot of money but isn’t getting any traction. I think DP is overestimated her chances and underestimating Mejia and Hancock.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Boigon finishes 5th. Decent councilperson, terrible mayoral candidate.
That’s all he’s got is a good buzz going! Too bad all his supporters will be voting on May 5 …
God-dern whipper-snappers and their vices.
Im not sure why, but I think Mejia could really finish strong. I’ve been trying to pay attention to all of the candidates, and Mejia seems to be really on his game. He’s impressive in debates, I’ve heard more recent buzz about him than other candidates (I know – not very quantitative) and he seems to be understanding his opportunity to present himself as a very qualified option to the other candidates, who may be perceived as career politicians. Of course, I live in Northwest Denver and probably draw my opinions from many interactions with folks up here. I wouldn’t think Mejia would have as much traction in South and East Denver, though.
I wasn’t too excited by this race, but it really could get interesting in a runoff (provided that the two candidates aren’t Romer and Boigon – please, please, please do not let that occur)…..
As I mentioned in my Mejia post, I live in Northwest Denver. The newer line you’ve posted for District 1 seems a bit better than the last. At 20-1, Katherine Cornwell is too low. I think she has a chance to get to the runoff, and could do well with a bit more time to campaign. She was the most knowledgeable in the forum I attended last week, with strong depth in her answers around zoning, development and transportation issues. She and her bus have also been omnipresent in the district these past few weeks. Of course, in a race like this – one that basically just began – it’ll be all about name ID and getting people out. Without a name like Frangas or Sandoval, it’s hard to say who has that strong ID. Most of the candidates are well known in their niche pockets, but that seems to be it.
I’ve received a mailing or door hangar from every candidate other than Jeffrey Schitter, bless him and his name. He has quite a few yard signs out, but my guess is that he’ll finish last. Samantha Padilla-Scheitler, the one candidate you did not mention, is the daughter-in-law of our former City Councilman (and the namesake of Scheitler Rec Center). She has the support of some influential old NW Denver families, but her campaign hasn’t seemed to get much traction. John Haney received 12.5% of the vote last year, and he seems to be more present this time around, so we’ll see if he makes a better finish. I haven’t seen Ambrose or Padilla do anything differently this time around, so I don’t think they’ll make it to the runoff.
Given today’s polling with Boigon in single digits, I can’t see any reason to have her anywhere in the top 3.
Also, DenverPols — you doing a diary on the new poll? If you’re busy, would you want to promote one if I wrote it up? I just don’t want to take the time if you are 🙂
But if you’d like to write one and it hits on the same points we would, definitely post a diary and we’ll promote it!
once again the Auditor’s race get’s no play. I’ve seen very little in the paper, but the word on the street is that it may not be as easy as the political machine thinks.
Why is Boigon still listed as one of the top contenders.
She’s not even showing up as some of the major debates.
Her TV ads have no political, social, or even artistic value.
Romer seems to have changed his approach. Now he’s just an everday guy, like you and I. Why hasn’t his daddy come out with a big time endorsement. Would this help or hurt him?
Mejia seems to be reaching voters. His face is every where-billboards, bus stops, doors, cars.
Hancock certainly seems to have a good platform. I have heard folks on both sides.
Linkhart may be too nice for politics. He certainly is knowledgeable about city gov.
Spahn will get a cabinet postion. She is sharp and her skills can be put to good use.
I’ve done my own informal poll and Mejia and Hancock seem to be the favorites.
Just my two cents worth
Mejia should be 3-1 and Linkhart just behind Hancock. Where is Sarah McCarthy for Clerk? She should be at least even with Johnson. Of the four candidates she has the most government administrative experience.
But then I do tend to run around a lot in her area of town.
The yard-sign battle is being very regional. Each person has numerous signs out in the area of town they live but only a few elsewhere (that I have seen).
I hadn’t thought about it until now, but all four candidates are geographically pretty spread out across the city.
I noticed you didn’t even mention Sarah McCarthy, but I think you may have it wrong there. Although she may not have the political connections of some of the other candidates, if you check out her website (www.mccarthyfordenver.com) you’ll see she is the most qualified of them all. I think voters will see this when they research candidates to fill in their ballots and they will vote for McCarthy. Why haven’t you listed her?
Nowhere does she address her experience in election administration or substantive positions on issues such as mail-in ballots. I admit that I don’t know much about this race or the candidates but McCarthy needs to show a lot more based on what I’ve seen.
Sarah McCarthy will discuss her qualifications and positions at a forum at Windsor Gardens this coming Tuesday, the 26th at 6:30 PM.
In addition you can view her extensive qualifications at: http://67.225.129.250/~sarah/Q…
I see you all had to update it today. Last night I was questioning why you had Boigon so high. I’m not even a POLITICO, but I see how politics are played. I wonder if this wonderful site is just a play ground for some of the political chess that occurs.
I do want someone to answer the question about why daddy Romer is not endorsing the baby Romer in a public way.
Will it help or hurt him. The poll that came out in the post yesterday basically showed about a three way tie.
Romer acutally has slipped in my mind since he hasn’t gaind any ground since the scientific poll that was conducted.
I got one on Sunday and immediately hung up. ha