State Representative Andy Kerr raised nearly $8,500 more than his opponent, State Representative Ken Summers, in the race to fill SD-22, although Summers still leads Kerr 2-1 in cash on hand.
Kerr raised just over $16,000 in the fundraising period ending on May 2nd, compared to about $7,800 for Summers. While it appears on first glance that Kerr spent ten times as much as Summers in that same period, Summers appears to have held off on filing his expenditures until a report filed on May 21st. Through May, both candidates have spent about the same amount of money.
While it’s true that Summers has nearly twice as much money on hand as Kerr — about $58,000 for the Republican compared to $32,000 for the Democrat — Summers has only raised $14,000 more. That’s nothing to scoff at, although if Kerr continues to outraise Summers, that lead will be whittled away quickly.
What’s curious, then, is how little Summers has spent on his campaign to date. He’s listed only $4,300 in expenditures, compared to $14,600 for Kerr. While traditional thinking would emphasize saving as much money as possible until the fall, Summers has been inexplicably tight-fisted. He’s only spent money on yard signs and mailing supplies so far, and only recently hired a consultant for field efforts. While Kerr’s reports indicate he’s spent a lot of money on fundraising — likely the reason he raised so much more than Summers this period — he’s also paid for robodials, outreach events, and months of professional consultation. Spending now enables Kerr to build up a dedicated force of volunteers and other supporters which will make his field efforts that much easier. Kerr’s personality, of course, lends itself much better to recruiting walkers, although Summers is surprisingly formidable on the doorstep.
Summers is going to have to start spending money eventually, and when he does, his numbers will no doubt equalize with Kerr’s. The real question is whose campaign strategy will be more effective: Kerr’s early and continued engagement or Summers’ early frugality and late summer push?
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Watch for the TABOR decision when the Denver District Court judge issues his ruling this summer. If he holds TABOR to be unconstitutional, Andy Kerr is going to regret he was the lead plaintiff in this case.
Even if TABOR is upheld, voters will be looking to hold someone accountable. This court case can be Kerr’s undoing.