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November 03, 2006 01:02 AM UTC

Ritter by 22 Points?!

  • 42 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Latest 9News/SurveyUSA numbers on the governor’s race as well as a couple of bellwether ballot issues:

Governor:
35% Beauprez (R)
57% Ritter (D)
2% Winkler (L)
1% Harkins (ACP)
1% Fiorino (I)
3% Other/Undecided

Amendment 42 (minimum wage):
44% Yes
36% No
20% Undecided

Amendment 43 (gay marriage ban):
40% Yes
41% No
19% Undecided

Amendment 44 (pot legalization)
36% Yes
51% No
13% Undecided

Is this getting stupid yet? Either we truly are setting up for the Democratic red-state blowout of all time, or these pollsters are smoking some pretty good dope–and if that was the case, would Amendment 44 be losing by 15 points in the same poll?

Comments

42 thoughts on “Ritter by 22 Points?!

  1. That’s my question,,,,clearly especially the U’s are voting for Ritter overwhelmingly, but hey, I’m a Democrat so I can’t say I know exactly what goes through a U’s mind, but they gotta be thinking, “I’m really torn here, I am voting D for Governor, and I really wanna vote for D’s for the rest of the statewide races because the R’s are such jerks, but I’m a U, and U’s split their ballots.”  Anybody have thoughts on that? 

    Wondering if this is why the other statewide races are so split, because primarily of the undecided & confused U’s…

    1. Lots of us are like reformed smokers.  While we’re not really Dems and probably won’t ever be, we’re pissed at the R’s so bad that we want to punish them – and bad.  In our view the only way to get rid of the Guns, Gays and Abortion republicans for good is for the party to go so far down that they leave the party for good to those of us old real republicans and get disgusted entirely with politics.  I know it’s a pipe dream, but hope springs eternal.  So, I pulled a lot of D levers.  Not for Ken Gordon, he’s a total pompous ass so I voted for no one, but otherwise, all D’s.

      1. What bugs me is when the right wing Rs win, they think they have political capital, and when they lose they come back with a fervor and work even harder. I hate to admit it, but I don’t see any way around ’em other than to leave the party. And, yeah, I know the way around it is to get the moderates to caucus. That doesn’t work.

        One year, I had a list of identified moderate Rs in my precinct. I called 50 people and invited them to attend the caucus. Not one of the people I called came. And that’s because moderates don’t generally want to get in their neighbor’s faces about their political beliefs, which is something the right wing Rs excel at. Also, people don’t go to caucuses because caucuses generally suck.

        I have bitter feelings toward Big Horn for blowing it a few years back when there was a ballot amendment to change the way the parties select candidates. Talk about terrible campaigns. That one should be on the list.

        I’m still registered R but vote for mostly Ds — except for the rare moderate R candidate. I won’t change to D, but I think it’s important to change to U so the Rs can’t count me as one of theirs.

        Who was talking a while back about starting the Publicrat party? I’ll join that party.

        1. and I are co-chairs of the Publicrat Party.  Who was the guy that coined the name?  He’s one too.  A strong third party would shape up the D’s and R’s I think.

          1. We also have a two drink minimum to apply for membership.

            Yeah, whatever happened to our 3rd member? Jesus, they’re dropping like flies and we haven’t even assembled yet. 

            1. I guess you don’t have to be a Publicrat to drink, but as Middle asserted, we do have a two drink minimum.  Who coined the name?  It was a guy who used to post regularly. 

              1. Maybe if they passed out some libations (uh, oh, another taxpayer expense, ha ha) during committee hearings, there might be a bit more camaderie (sp?) and joy.

                Can’t you see it, Dave Schulteis and Morgan Carroll, arms around each other, “Morgan, I didn’t really intend to sound the say I did, and BTW, you’re a real hottie.”

  2. … but as a Democrat I fear it’ll be the Republican “October surprise/smear tactics/GOTV” Mother of All Counterattacks. Ritter will win, but everyone and everything else will be disappointing to Dems.

    At least that’s what I fear unless the DEMS GOTV!

    1. it will be hard for any major bombshell to change many minds before then, and a third or more of the state will already have voted.

      Nonetheless, I know where you’re coming from.  There was a fabulous cartoon the other day depicting Charlie Brown as a Democrat, smiling and eager to confidently kick the football that Republican Lucy was holding…

    2. Democrats are doing *way* better GOTV than we did in 2004, where our performance wasn’t that shabby.  We won’t break turnout records since it’s not a Presidential election, but I must say I’m impressed how much more polished things have gotten.

    3. “Counting your chickens before they hatch”? or “If something sounds too good to be true…”  I’m a Dem as well but all this talk, all around the country, of Dems taking the House, etc. makes me nervous.  I hope Dems don’t hear all this and think “we have it in the bag so I can just stay home on election day… “

  3. I’m surprised that 43 is so close considering the other poll has support for I plumetting. I thought Ref I would pass within 5% points while 43 would pass with a margin of 10%, but maybe both will be closer than that.

    1. they are both really close, so it is all about who votes.  I guess we needed something to keep us interested with the Gov’s race not looking at all close.

    1. For the past week or two, this blog has been so over-the-top Democrat, GOP bashing that not even I could keep my head above the water.

      I still read.  But everytime I thing about posting, I figure “what’s the point?”  And I’m sure that immediately afterwards, should the Dems have a major vicory, it will be worse.

      Meanwhile, I’m still fighting the good fight, just not on the blog anymore.

    1. I voted for 42, half because I support the minimum wage increase and half because I oppose those stupid, insulting commercials. (God/Moses and the cheese grater/toilet paper.)

      1. ….which said in large, bold letters, PROTECT YOUR PROPERTY RIGHTS!  I had to think for a moment whether any of the amendments had to do with eminent domain, then saw A-40 mentioned, and it seems that proponents of A-40 are P.O.’d over a couple of land use decisions by the state appellate courts. 
          Someone should tell John Andrews that sour grapes make bitter wine…….

    1. Who is going to admit to supporting it on the phone? 

      Are all the 60’s potheads voting against it?  I figured once the old school died out and the baby boomers dominated, pot would be legalized. 

  4. I don’t buy that.  Have you guys seen the returns for absentees and such from Colorado Springs?  11% of the total voters in the county have returned ballots already.  Most have been Republicans.  And that’s not counting the hundreds of people that have been taking advantage of the early voting.  This election is going to be big.  There will be a huge turnout, probably record breaking.  Republicans have been told they’ll loose so much, I think it’s energized them to turn out in mass.

    1. 54,509 early or absentee ballots in:

      31,790 or 58.3% R
      10,415 or 19.1% U
      12,304 or 22.6% D

      There are still 23,315 absentee ballots out:

      12,908 or 55.4% R
      5,671  or 24.3% U
      4,736  or 20.3% D

      Ds are leading slightly with 65.6% of absentee ballots returned, Rs next with 64% and Us with 56.7% returned. If they all come back, my expectation is 80,000+ early and absentee ballots cast.

      In general, it looks like Ds are overpolling as a percentage compared to Rs but the Us are only showing up at about 2/3 of their registration percentage. If Us were showiing up at their registration numbers, there would be about 2,000 more early votes for Us and about another 7,000 absentee ballots for Us. Then we would have a monster turnout (more like 200,000). My guess is still around 180,000 in the county.

      1. Statewide voter in the bank: 12.9% of registered Democrats, 13.0% of registered Republicans, and 6.4% registered “Others” voted by 11/1/06.

        Whether you want to believe or disbelieve these polls with 20+ point leads were exact, Ritter does have a lead.  Beauprez has never broken 41 percent in any phone poll released.  That is a problem, no matter what.

  5. that is an amendment that we need in light of Cheney’s, Frist, Delay, Abramoff, etcs actions. I am surprised that it is not getting more play in the press. While I would rather see Joel Hefley’s ideas implemented, this is a good start.

    1. It would do nothing about the Cheney’s etc. it is only applicable to Colorado officials and employees.

      The big problem is that while it is being sold as a way to prevent lobbyists from giving to politicians, it really goes after every government employee.

      As has been noted here before, it will prevent ANYONE from giving something with a value of more than $50 to ANY government employee (ditch diggers, part time summer interns or employees) and anyone in their immediate family.

      That means if you happen to be a state or local government employee, and your neighbor wants to take you out to dinner and the dinner is worth more than $50 the neighbor and you would be in violation and could be subject to ethics charges, and non-due process subpoena.

      If they had limited this initiative to just elected officials and high level government decision makers, it might make sense, but this is so broad, far-reaching, and stupid.

      If it passes count on litigation that will end up having it decared unconstitutional because it will violate th 14th amendment to the US Constitution.  And then you will have nothing.

      1. While this amendment will not stop cheney’s/delay’s/frist’s/abrahoff’s, it is a good start. Hopefully, from here, this will lead to similar amendments passed on a national level.

        After reading the amendment, I am not convinced of what you are saying. It appears to target exactly everybody who has influence.  As to your argument about constitutional violation, well, I am hopeful that they will be tested.

        1. I agree with Roger here.  The scope of 41 will go far beyond the intent of the wording.  I admire the idea of ethics in government – what a concept! – however, as with many ballot issues, the package covers the nasty surprise of unintended consequences inside.

      2. Yes, there are definitely problems with 41.  I signed the petition for it, but I voted against it.

        That said, if my neighbor takes me out to dinner and my dinner is worth $50, I do consider that an ethical problem; not because my neighbor is buying influence, but because who the @!$&# pays $50 for a dinner?

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