March 15, 2024 01:57 PM UTC

Trump, MAGA Freaks Prompt Worries About Key Ohio Senate Race

• 4 Comments
• by: Colorado Pols

The 118th Congress seems destined to go down in history as one of the least productive two-year periods in decades…which leads to the obvious question of what this will mean in the 2024 election cycle.

Much of this dysfunction has to do with the ridiculous antics in the House of Representatives, which Republicans have turned into an absolute circus almost beyond parody. House Speaker “MAGA” Mike Johnson is always on the precipice of facing another “motion to vacate” the Speaker’s Chair, and the GOP is losing members almost faster than they can be counted (including Rep. Ken Buck’s surprise departure). House Republicans will hold a five-seat majority (218-213) once Buck departs on March 22; with little ability to achieve anything before voters go to the polls this fall, Republicans won’t have much to say to counter Democrats as the latter pushes to regain control of the majority in 2024.

Democrats will likely have a tougher time holding onto their one-seat majority in the U.S. Senate in 2024, largely because the map is not in their favor. There are 34 Senate seats up in 2024, and Democrats are on defense in the most vulnerable of those states. Pundits generally agree that the Senate majority will be decided by outcomes in these states: Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Republicans need to flip just one seat (if they also win the White House) in order to control the Senate in 2025.

Flipping one or two seats seems doable so long as Republicans don’t destroy each other first…but Republicans DO love them some circular firing squads. In the key state of Ohio, where Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is running for re-election, all hell has broken loose ahead of Tuesday’s three-way Republican Primary between businessman Bernie Moreno, Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Sen. Matt Dolan.

As POLITICO explains:

Moreno compared Dolan to anti-Trump Republicans Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney, and said LaRose will “lie through his teeth to get political power.” Dolan called Moreno a “phony” and he concluded that LaRose’s mishandling of a constitutional amendment on abortion rights “dismisses” him from the race. LaRose said Moreno is “very liberal” and is part of the “corporate elite” and that Dolan is an “anti-gun guy” with a “very shoddy” abortion record.

In a sign of the last minute chaos, a long discussed story about an Adult Friend Finder account linked to Moreno published on Thursday by the Associated Press after bubbling on social media and behind the scenes for weeks. The episode raises the prospect of even more personal attacks over the final days.

Despite the GOP’s best efforts to avoid it, for the second straight election cycle the Buckeye State is home to a bruising intraparty fight, one that Republicans worry could produce lasting damage to the eventual nominee and threaten their chances of flipping the seat — and the Senate. The stakes are even higher than 2022, because there’s an incumbent this time; the winner will have to take on the battle-tested Brown. [Pols emphasis]

“It’s pretty ugly. Unfortunately, we’re at a phase where there’s a lot of negative advertising. I think, obviously, that will eventually harm the nominee,” said Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio). “The more negative dollars you spend attacking each other, the more it makes it harder. We’ve certainly learned that the hard way.”

The latest attack on the Trump-backed Moreno includes salacious rumors and one of our favorite political excuses. As The Associated Press reports:

Ahead of Tuesday’s primary election, there’s mounting anxiety inside the GOP that Bernie Moreno may emerge with the nomination. After vaulting into the top tier of contenders with a coveted endorsement from Donald Trump, Moreno — who has shifted from a public supporter of LGBTQ rights to a hardline opponent — is confronting questions about the existence of a 2008 profile seeking “Men for 1-on-1 sex” on a casual sexual encounters website called Adult Friend Finder. [Pols emphasis]

“Hi, looking for young guys to have fun with while traveling,” reads a caption on a photo-less profile under the username “nardo19672,” according to an Associated Press review of records made public through a massive and well-publicized data breach of the website. Records also show the profile was last accessed about six hours after it was created.

Before we go any further on the broader implications here, we had to chuckle at the response from the Moreno campaign.

The infamous ROGUE STAFFER is back!!!

The “rogue staffer” is one of our all-time favorite excuses in politics — the often unnamed person who may or may not be to blame for any number of scandals (click HERE, HERE, and HERE for just a few examples over the years). In Ohio, however, Trump-backed candidate Bernie Moreno is even naming the “rogue staffer” and providing a quote from the campaign on this person’s behalf.

“The Hill” newspaper has more details on this supposed “prank,” although it’s not at all clear what the point of the prank would have been in the first place:

Moreno’s campaign provided The Hill with a statement from the former intern, Dan Ricci, who said he created the account as “an aborted prank.” The campaign also provided a signed email from the former vice president of Bernie Moreno Companies that confirms Ricci was a Moreno intern in November 2008 and had access to his emails.

“I am thoroughly embarrassed by an aborted prank I pulled on my friend, and former boss, Bernie Moreno, nearly two decades ago,” Ricci’s statement said…

…The Hill cannot independently confirm Ricci’s statement, since it was provided by the Moreno campaign, although it is signed by Ricci. The AP said Ricci did not respond to voicemails left on multiple phone numbers listed under his name. [Pols emphasis]

Donald Trump himself is expected to appear next to Moreno at a rally tomorrow in Dayton, Ohio. As The AP explains further, Trump’s endorsement has catapulted Moreno to the top of a three-candidate race — a boost that scares Republicans who are focused on trying to win this seat in November:

Moreno’s potential vulnerability has sparked frustration among senior Republican operatives and elected officials in Washington and Ohio, according to seven people who are directly familiar with conversations about how to address the matter. The people requested anonymity to avoid running afoul of Trump and his allies. [Pols emphasis] They described concerns surrounding Moreno’s candidacy as so acute that some party officials sought a review of data to determine his potential involvement.

Sound familiar? Republicans are too afraid of Trump to speak out more forcefully against a candidate who may not be their best hope of defeating the incumbent Democrat in November.

Moreno was formerly an outspoken supporter of LGBTQ rights before he realized that you can’t really do that sort of thing and hope to win a Republican Primary these days. Moreno has flipped so thoroughly on this issue, in fact, that a pro-Moreno Super PAC is running this TV spot accusing Frank LaRose of being too nice to gay people:

No matter what happens on Tuesday, the Republican nominee for Senate in Ohio will begin a General Election campaign as damaged goods. Trump’s involvement in this race is a significant reason why. Remember, before Trump somehow worked his way back into “Dear Leader” form among Republicans, he was widely blamed for costing Republicans the U.S. Senate in 2022 because of his endorsement of some very questionable characters across the country. The same thing may well happen in 2024.

Here in Colorado, Trump has endorsed Lauren Boebert for Congress in CO-04 and State Party Chair Dave Williams in CO-05. While neither district is competitive for Democrats, Trump’s endorsements have boosted the chances of success for two people whom Colorado Republicans have been desperately trying to get rid of in 2024.

It’s the same story with different locations and characters: Trump and his MAGA base are only helpful until they aren’t.