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November 05, 2023 11:53 PM UTC

Monday Open Thread

  • 28 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

“Conceit spoils the finest genius.”

–Louisa May Alcott

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28 thoughts on “Monday Open Thread”

  2. Daily Kos Morning Digest from the Elections team reports

    ● CO-04: State Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg tells The Fort Morgan Times that he hopes to decide "by Thanksgiving" if he'll compete in the June GOP primary to succeed his fellow Republican, retiring Rep. Ken Buck.

     

  3. Former President Donald Trump holds sizable leads over President Biden in five of the six most important battleground states, according to a New York Times-Siena College poll released Sunday.

    Trump leads Biden by a whopping 10 points in Nevada, six points in Georgia, five points in both Arizona and Michigan, and four points in Pennsylvania. Biden's sole lead is in Wisconsin, where he beats Trump by two points.

    Biden had defeated Trump in all six states during the 2020 election. Combining the polling in all six states gives Trump a 48-44 lead over Biden.

      1. This might be Biden’s high-water mark.

        Remember, the US is not actively involved in any military actions (i.e., Iraq, Afghanistan) although obviously we are rooting for a couple of other countries and sending them $$$ and weapons. But no US troops coming home in body bags.

        And the economy, despite what many insecure people subjectively fear, is not in bad shape. Inflation is down, unemployment is still way down.

        If Biden is polling where he is now, then where will his polling numbers be if: (a) the economy tanks, (b) the US gest dragged into a foreign war, (c) those still minor senior moments become more pronounced and noticeable, or (d) all of the above.

        1. And if …

          a..the economy keeps going gangbusters

          b..Blinkens' tireless work pays off

          c..Trump has a complete melt down

          Polls this early in the cycle provide little more than fodder for wishful thinking. I would say the same if the polls leaned otherwise.

      2. Good point, Duke.  In addition, even the New York Times is clarifying that the numbers aren’t very solid:

        Today, Trump is leading in most swing states, according to the latest Times/Siena College poll. Once the campaign picks up, though, Trump’s behavior will get more attention, partly because some of his criminal trials will likely have begun. In the Times poll, about 6 percent of voters in battleground states — enough to swing the result — said they would abandon their support for Trump if he were convicted on charges related to the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and sentenced to prison.

        If there is a video of Trump taking the 5th amendment a few hundred times in his testimony, I think that is only political ad Biden might need…

        1. I'm not jumping in on the "Boot Joe" chorus just yet, but doesn't this poll play perfectly into the narrative MAGA is building in the event Joe (or some other Dem) defeats FDFQ in 2024? They can point to these polls and proclaim, "but he was waaaaay ahead of Joe.  The polls proved it!" It's rigged!  It's been stolen! 

          Rinse.  Repeat. 

          PS:  lots of chatter about FDFQ testimony today vis-a-vis Duetche Bank.  I'm old enough to remember the time it was revealed Justice Kennedy's son was in charge of a portion of the Drumpf portfolio. I seem to remember a meeting at the White House where Kennedy met with the Prez, Fat Donnie whispered something in his ear, and soon Kennedy was announcing his departure from the court? 

          Maybe Bobo and Comer can go gnaw on that stinky fish for a while? 

          1. Vanky!

            I'm picturing her walking into the courtroom dramatically in this big hat and dark sunglasses …. hostile witness for the prosecution.

  4. Anti-Trust. Heather Cox-Richardson.

    In February 1913, a month before Wilson took office, the report of the Pujo Committee—so called even though an illness in Pujo’s family made him cede the chair to Hubert Stephens (D-MS)—showed that overlapping directorates and corporate boards had enabled a handful of men to control more than $22 billion in 112 corporations, where they stifled competition. 

    Although banks refused to cooperate with the investigation, the committee had learned enough to be “satisfied from the proofs submitted, even in the absence of data from the banks, that there is an established and well-defined identity and community of interest between a few leaders of finance, created and held together through stock ownership, interlocking directorates, partnership and joint account transactions, and other forms of domination of banks, trust companies, railroads, and public-service and industrial corporations, which has resulted in great and rapidly growing concentration of the control of money in the hands of these few men.”

    Outraged, Americans got behind the Sixteenth Amendment to the Constitution establishing the power of the federal government to levy an income tax, which was ratified in February 1913. In December 1913, Congress passed the Federal Reserve Act, providing federal oversight of the country’s banking system. The following year it passed the Clayton Antitrust Act, which prohibited anticompetitive economic practices. And it established the Federal Trade Commission to prevent unfair methods of competition. 

    November 5, 1912, turned out to be a crucial day in the history of our country. But when the day dawned, it was not clear what the evening would bring. For their part, Mr. and Mrs. J. H. Kyler of Denison, Texas, were hedging their bets: when their newborn triplets arrived shortly before the election, they named the boys William Howard Taft Kyler, Theodore Roosevelt Kyler, and Woodrow Wilson Kyler.

  5. Why Reading Brad DeLong, the Economic Historian is so Interesting:

    The history of human evolution is still extraordinarily blurred. Moreover, in my view, very, very, very little of “EvoPsych” results are going to durably replicate. Whatever I would teach about human evolution before 50,000 years or so would, I think, probably be wrong.

    Nevertheless, it is very important. So let me set out 10 theses. These are all debatable and disputable. But I think they are worth keeping in mind as likely (ha!) results of our evolutionary history, and as important underpinnings of the economic history of the past 50,000 years:

    1. We are all very very very close cousins. The overwhelming proportion of all of our ancestry comes from one roughly-1000 person or so group 70,000 years ago. Small admixtures from other human groups that were then roaming the world were then added to this mix.

    2. We were human long before 70,000 years ago. People from 10 or 20 times further in the past would in all likelihood be able to fit into our society. Homo ergaster, homo erectus, homo heidelbergensis, homo neanderthalis, homo denisovo, the Red Deer Cave people, and us homo sapiens—and maybe homo floresiensis—are all, in a very real sense, us.

    3. We are cultural-learning intelligences, coevolved biologically and culturally to build up a huge component of our nature-manipulation and group-organization toolkits from observing others of our species, and thus learning the accumulated cultural patterns of past ages.

    4. We are, overwhelmingly, collectively an anthology intelligence: smart not because each of us is smart, but because we can and do learn from, teach, and communicate with others at a furious rate.

    5. We are also a time-binding anthology intelligence: not just us around here who are now thinking, but also our predecessors thinking in the past. That is what gives us our smarts, and allows us to survive.

    6. Since the invention of writing 5000 years ago, the time-binding-ness of our anthology-intelligence nature has been amped up by a full order of magnitude. Our knowledge from the past is not just embedded in present-day cultural patterns, but is also via direct communication from them to us, as we take durable squiggles and from them spin-up and run on our wetware sub-Turing instantiations of the human minds that made the squiggles.

    7. Our intelligence on an individual level is quite limited. We find it very hard to think except in terms of narratives: those narratives usually taking the form of cause and effect, of journeys forward through space, and of sin and retribution, nemesis and hubris. Thoughts that do not fall into those patterns are very hard for us to have, and very very hard for us to communicate to others.

    8. Thus we should not expect our anthology intelligence to get things right. It can get things right in an awesome and mindbending way. But large groups of people can also get things very very wrong and persist in error to a remarkable degree.

    9. Given how incompetent most of us must be in most of the work that our culture has the knowledge to have somebody do, our prosperity—nay, our survival—depends on establishing a cooperative division of labor. We both divide labor and also induce ourselves to cooperate by being primed to form and reinforce social bonds based not on grooming each other to remove parasites (as other monkeys do), and not by mock-mounting each other in para-reproductive activity (as canids do), but rather via forming gift-exchange relationships.

    10. With the invention of money, all of a sudden each of our individual social gift-exchange networks changes from having to be a long-term close-relationship network (limited only to our close kin, our immediate neighbors, and our good friends—and not all of those). All of a sudden our potential division of labor expands to encompass every single other human in the world. This has powerful consequences for us as an anthology intelligence devoted to organizing our selves and manipulating nature.

    1. "one roughly 1,000 person or so group 70,000 years ago……" And it irritates  white supremacists to the end of days when they learn that said group likely came from Olduvai Gorge, in Tanzania, in black Africa.

      1. Archeology, Anthropology, Geography & DNA. 

        There is a lot of fascinating research on how humans evolved, spread, and developed culture.

        Brad DeLong is particularly interested in how after about 1870, the human race escaped the Malthusian exponential burst and crashes.

      2. CHB,

        Recent articles in "New Scientist" and " Nature Journal" are pointing to new and enlightening discoveries indicating those assumptions may not hold up any longer.

        1. I've received a couple free copies of "New Scientist." Looks interesting, but I can't keep up with all the stuff I currently have coming in.

  6. Friday's Secretary of State numbers – about 16.6% of active registered voters had their ballots officially received. Obviously numbers will be different later today, but man 16.6% is not great so late in the cycle. Republican returns were about 20,000 votes higher than Democrats (c'mon slackers), but unaffiliated was almost 40,000 higher than Republicans.

    Prince might call the unaffiliated numbers a Sign O' The Times.

      1. I do think today's and tomorrow's numbers will be vastly higher than Friday's, especially with weekend returns added in. I'll guess we'll hit the mid-to-high 30%s when all is said and done and counted. But I wonder how low-ish turnout will affect HH, since the minions in TABOR's service will do their master's (Doug B) bidding.

    3. I hope she has placed her malpractice carrier on notice regarding her forgetting to check the box for a jury trial.

      Although whatever ambulance chaser F.D.F.Q. hires to go after Habba will need to win the "case within the case" meaning that they will need to show that had he been in front of jury, the outcome would have been different. Any Manhattan jury would probably reach the same conclusion as the judge does.

       

      1. Even if it fell below standard of care, proving a jury would have come to a different conclusion from the court seems unlikely, particularly given the court's summary judgment ruling.  I don't see any way to win the case within a case.  Habba is a joke, for sure, though

         

        1. Michael Cohen attended Thomas M. Cooley Law School while Alina Haba attended Widener University Commonwealth Law. Both are really, really bad law schools. Only the best people…

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