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October 10, 2006 06:28 PM UTC

CD-5: Tossup

  • 47 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

As we indicated yesterday, new polling results show that CD-5 is up for grabs. The Denver Post reports today on a new poll, results of which have been confirmed by at least one other poll, showing that Democrat Jay Fawcett and Republican Doug Lamborn are tied 37-37, with 26 percent still undecided:

In what may be the starkest depiction yet of the challenges Republicans face in maintaining control of Congress, a new poll shows the party is fighting to hold on to a traditionally Republican seat in Colorado Springs.

No Democrat has won in the 5th Congressional District since it was created in 1972, but Democrat Jay Fawcett is tied with Republican Doug Lamborn, according to a poll conducted for The Denver Post by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

Fawcett and Lamborn each have 37 percent of the votes, while 26 percent of voters in the six-county district remain undecided. The poll was conducted Oct. 3 through Saturday and included 400 likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Lamborn’s camp is crying foul at this new poll, but they don’t seem to have much of a case:

Jon Hotaling, campaign manager for Lamborn, said the poll is flawed and skewed toward Democrats. He said internal polls show Lamborn has a “healthy” lead in the race, though he would not say how the polls are different because he “doesn’t want Republicans to get complacent and not vote.”

Pollsters interviewed 47 percent Republicans, 27 percent independents and 26 percent Democrats. Secretary of state records show that as of September, the district was 46 percent Republican, 32 percent unaffiliated and 22 percent Democratic.

The poll is skewed because it leans Democrat…even though twice as many Republicans as Democrats were polled. Explain that one, Jon.

According to the Post, the DCCC won’t say whether it plans to pump money into this race, but it’s a good bet that at least some national money will start to pour into CD-5. That money may or may not be enough to put Fawcett over the top, but anything that increases Democratic turnout could be the nail in Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob Beauprez’s coffin (in addition to helping several legislative candidates).

Comments

47 thoughts on “CD-5: Tossup

  1. Jay Fawcett has run an excellent campaign and Doug Lamborn has done everthing possible from the primary on to get people to not like him.  They are running to replace Joel Hefly who should have a major street named after him for all that he did during his 30 years in congress for the district.  When someone of Joel’s stature refuses to endorse you as his replacement, you have certainly stepped over a line somewhere. Lamborn expected an easy cruise to Washington but a strong challenge from Facett has left him floundering.  I don’t think he had any plan for running anything besides a bare bones campaign after the primary, and Jay’s challenge caught him flat footed.  Whether all this is enough to overcome the huge advantage anyone with an R after their name is yet to be seen.

    1.   Doesn’t Joel Hefley pride himself on being a loyal Republican?  Has he ever refused to endorse the Republican nominee in a general election before?  If not, this is very significant…….

  2. “Lamborn said Congress could save money on earmarks, and privatize Social Security for young workers.”

    Saw this quote in the Denver Post.  Yay Lamborn! . . . keep diggin that hole buddy.

    1. The undecideds are mostly vegetative individuals with malfunctioning brain stems who cannot recognize greatness in men.

      Fawcett supporters are mostly hemp-smoking homosexuals.

      I didn’t realize these populations made up such a large portion of likely CD-5 voters, but the polling seems to indicate exactly that.

      1. You forgot to mention that Lamborn supporters are mostly ultra-right gay-bashing Christian fundamentalists that are out of touch with reality.

        Fawcett wants to represent ALL of the people in the district and will at least listen even if he doesn’t agree.  He doesn’t need Dobson to do his thinking for him.

      2. I was undecided and live in CD-5 but when my ballot arrived last Saturday, I had to go with Lamborn.
        I think many others will do the same. It wasn’t from dealing with a deformed brain stem, although my friends might argue that point.
        But it is kinda like a drunk that goes to the local tavern every night. His car always makes that turn into the lot even though he knows he shouldn’t.
        Same goes for voting for a Democrat. It might be the smart thing to do in very few cases, but many of us just can’t do it.
        Besides, I’d have to get rid of all of my Confederate flags (the tattoos would be a bitch to make go away) and rub shoulders with my pansy flit/boy yuppie neighbor……..
        Gag me with a spoon dude…

        1. is a dope. Doesn’t matter what party it is because both have more than their fair share of losers, yes men, and knee-jerk orthodox nonthinkers who get on the ballot. It doesn’t say much for democracy if people just blindly vote for them because of party affiliation. But at least you’re honest. I’ll let someone else take you to task for the homophobia…

        2. of a joke about a roadside bar in Texas that is notorious for drunkenness, and drunk drivers.  The cops usually just hang out near the parking lot and watch for drunks exiting the tavern and then just pull them over about a block away, and take them downtown to the drunk tank.

          So, one night this guy comes out of the bar at closing time in the parking lot on Saturday night stumbling, staggering, and fumbling for his keys.  He’s obviously 3 sheets to the wind as he can barely even walk.  It takes him five minutes just to get the key in the ignition and start the car.  He pulls out of the parking lot erratically, and starts swerving all over the road, and lets out a couple of yahoos! just for fun.

          Of course, the cops see all of this and pull the guy over about a block away.  He has his license and registration ready, there is no odor of alcohol coming from the car, his speech isn’t even slurred.  He looks fine, and passes all of his motor skills tests.

          The cops start to ask this guy just what the hell is going on.  He was barely conscious just a few minutes ago.  He decides to let the officers in on the secret, with a big grin on his face – “oh that’s easy officers, i’m the designated decoy !” 

        3. Its just this simple, conservatives don’t do well with socialized medicine, socialized taxation, socialized government in general.  Too much govenment is a bad thing.  Reminds me of a liber who once said, “I think government isn’t all bad, especially if they don’t do stupid things.”  So when has government not done something stupid???

    2. From http://www.denverpos… which covers CD 4, 5, and 7.

      Democrats
      76% Fawcett
        5% Lamborn
      19% Undecided

      Republicans
      14% Fawcett
      61% Lamborn
      25% Undecided

      Independants
      39% Fawcett
      27% Lamborn
      34% Undecided

      Lamborn
      37% Favorable
      26% Unfavorable
      34% Neutral
      13% Don’t Recognize

      Fawcett
      20% Favorable
        7% Unfavorable
      32% Neutral
      41% Don’t Recognize

      Why people vote for Fawcett
      47% Stand on Issues
      20% Opponent’s Legislative Record
      14% Heffley’s Refusal to Endorse Lamborn
      13% Military Service Record
        6% Other/Not Sure

      Why people vote for Lamborn
      41% Stand on Issues
      32% Emphasis on Family Values
      13% Expierence in Legislature
      11% Opponent’s Campaign Platform
        3% Other/Not Sure

      I am concerned about the large number of undecideds, and the very large number who don’t recognize Fawcett.  Clearly, he needs to get his name out there for him to have a chance at an upset of Biblical proportions.

      1. How is it that people have never heard of a candidate for a major office. I can understand it for some small races that maybe statewide or area specific, but a US congressional race? How is that possible?

      2. An opponent that is viewed favorably by only 20%, yet has 41% with no name identity at all.  Who trails their opponent by 17% points, and their military record as a criteria accounts for only 13% ever won an election?  I would be interested in knowing how someone pulls this off.

        Sorry Mr. Fawcett, all of the hype and wishfuil thinking won’t make this event so.  Maybe in ten years or so, but not today my friend.

        1. that this isn’t a sporting event where the only thing that matters is the final score. By any reasonable reckoning a Republican ought to win this seat 60-40 minimum. If Lamborn takes this with less than 55 it will be a major embarassment for the GOP. Of course it’ll probably be lost in the furor over losing the majority in the House…

  3. Doesn’t look good for Fawcett. Just a few weeks ago their poll had Fawcett at 41, Lamborn at 28. Since that time, Lamborn’s gained 9 points and Fawcett’s lost 4. Looks like Lamborn’s charging hard.

    1. The 41-28 poll was an informed voter poll.  That’s a poll where both candidates are described in even-handed terms, then the pollee gets to choose.

      This one is just a “Would you vote for Jay Fawcett, Doug Lamborn, or are you Undecided?” poll.  Very different, and hence the different results.

      No comparing apples to cantaloupe here.

        1. Otherwise, they would not have registered as one of the other. Now, I would vote for a D (over a Wingnut R) with a business background who didn’t boast 17 Union endorsements, and who professed a belief in low taxes and a small, fiscally conservative government.  But does my ideal D candidate exist?  I doubt if someone like that would even be a D, would they?

          1. I think a lot of people register one way or another for a multitude of reasons aside from your point (their parents voted that way, their peer group, their church, they may be rebelling against their parents, or want to vote in the opposite’s primary, etc.) Futher the party may have shifted under a person’s feet to where the party no longer represents the person, but they may still self-identify one way or the other.

            You talked about the ever decreasing numbers in the “farm vote.” I think the same would apply to unions. The union rolls decrease every year. Their endorsement is more symbolic than anything. They will never support republicans and the only alternative option is to not endorse a party or a candidate. Its like the log cabin republicans, they didnt support bush in ’04, but they didnt support Kerry either. Quite honestly, I dont really pay that much attention to endorsements, because the only one that really matters is mine, to me that is. /derail.

            I am sure your hypothetical democrat exists. Whether he or she is running for office where you live is a whole other story. First, I doubt any politician would turn down any endorsement, and most would gladly display any seemingly influential endorsement they receive, but I would not hold that against them, short of obvious groups. Many Rs have professed the views you desire and I would say that they have left those beliefs by the wayside. Clinton had welfare reform, and he also had great economic growth and reduced the size of government during his tenure, but still gets slapped with big government label. He increased tazes, but across all tax brackets wealth greatly increased. Under Bush, we have expanded government, less taxes for the wealthy, which I am not, increased debt and a shrinking middle class. He has hardly been a model fiscal conservative.

            I think your ideal democrat may be an amalgamation of many democrats. The preconceived notions about dems is the tax and spend, gun grabber, and that is totally false. Dean got a 100% rating by the NRA, yeah Dean. Give me sometime and I could find numerous fiscally conservative dems. The greatest problem is that most people dont bother to look. You would never know that Dean had a 100% rating if you did not research him, but everybody thinks he is a flaming liberal. You would never call Clinton a fiscal conservative, but I would argue he is more so than Bush or Reagan were.

            Now, I would support someone like Lincoln Chaffee, if my alternative was someone I wouldnt agree with, but a Lincoln Chaffee would get run out of the Springs on a rail. So would a person like Rudy Guiliani. Hearing someone’s platform with no name ID or party affiliation would have someone in CD-5 repudiating Chaffee, but he is a republican. And in that poll more peopole identified Fawcett as their preferred candidate based on the issues. Those same people will vote for Lamborn based on his party affiliation, not on the issues. I think a lot of D’s would fall  under your interests, but they may be socially liberal while being fiscally conservative, the two are not mutually exclusive.

            1. “You talked about the ever decreasing numbers in the “farm vote.” I think the same would apply to unions. The union rolls decrease every year. Their endorsement is more symbolic than anything. They will never support republicans and the only alternative option is to not endorse a party or a candidate.”

              ——————-

              Unions give a LOT of money to Democratic campaigns, to say that their endorsement is merely symbolic misses that important fact.  I have also known many Unions to endorse strong Republican candidates if they think that the Democratic opponent is either:

              a.  anti-union
              b.  has no chance of winning

              Things are simply not that black and white.

              1. What you say is probably correct, but I have never heard of this happening, at least not in any major races. Sure they make donations, but with their ever decreasing numbers do you think they have as much sway as the did under Hoffa? Their decline largely started with Reagan and it continues today. The only union that comes to mind that has had a slight increase is the Service workers (i cant remember their acronym), and their increase has not been significant. You are right it is not exactly black and white, but the grey area is pretty tiny.

                1. are those with government and tax supported workers.  Every new beauracracy and government agency that is created provides them with more money to lobby for more agencies and more workers.  It’s the perfect taxpayer supported cycle.

            2. See rebuttal of rebuttal on the other thread. 

              I, for one, know Dean got the NRA’s 100% rating.  His state is the model all gun owners dream about.  I pay attention to what candidates say and to their record. If they constantly use catch words like “we need to invest in this, that, and the other”, I assume that means spend, spend, and spend.  If they talk conservative but vote for the bridge to nowhere, methinks they don’t mean what they say.  It’s sometimes a real conundrum trying to figure out who to vote for.

              I will listen to what the D says though, so if you can find a socially liberal fiscally conservative D, I’m all ears.

          2. the problem that is being created is that fiscal conservative social moderates were given the choice of accepting a party platform that spoke to fiscal constraint and government constraint (R) with many undesired social objectives versus a more intrusive and less fiscally constrained (D) platform. Many chose R. Then the reality of fiscal lack of constraint and government instrusion (R) and primary focus on the undesired social objectives while still giving the fiscal and constraint areas lip service versus the local Ds who at least speak to constraining the national D platform hit. I am willing to give local Ds who are discussing the OBJECTIVES of D platform with local implementation realities a chance since I see NO change in the local R lip service and implementation divergence.

            So I have the choice of trusting D candidates to listen to me as an R – knowing I have not accepted their party just that individual – versus going with R candidates who appear to be talking to me without making any effort to listen to me. I will take the people making the effort. Especially since I have seen real life instances (even here on the Pols dialogues) where the R response is “accept my leadership or leave” – I am taking a temporary leave of absence in that case.

            I am ready willing and able to accept R candidates who I can trust to act for their constituents, not the party. But when the message they are giving me is “Vote for me so the Rs can have control” tells me its party over the constituents, I am willing to cross the ticket.

          3. Maybe in Denver, but, overall, Western Democrats are liberal only relative to Western Republicans.  Quite a few East and West coast Democrats probably wonder by Ben Nelson of NE calls himself a Democrat – in fact, if Nelson’s a Dem, how can Hagel be a Rep?.

            Sometimes, I think regional affiliations are (or should be) more important than party affiliation.  If there’s any real knock against Colorado Democrats, it’s that they tend to be locked in a corner closet by their more numerous East and West coast Dems – they just don’t have much influence.

            Maybe that’s changing.  Reid (NV) is Senate Minority leader and, for some reason, Leiberman thought a visit from a Colorado Senator might help him fend off his more liberal opposition.  I don’t think it’s changed much.

            1. I agree with what you say about the influence of CO legislators but I also think that the Western style of politics (i.e. pragmatism instead of partisanship) is rising.  Will this help increase Colorado’s legislators’ power within Congress – not really. 

              We’re looked to as a state where the initiative process (along with CA and OR) floats test balloons for political issues for the rest of the country.

  4. Lamborn would jump 10 points if he just came out and apologized for his actions in the primary.  He would gain another 5 by firing Hoteling.  But he is too weak (or dumb or proud) to do either and that is why he is the only Republican who ran for this seat who could lose to Fawcett.

    Fawcett must have been the happiest person in CD5 the night of the primary…

    1. Could you whiney babies please get over yourselves and your lame attitude.  Just because Jeffie didn’t get the Coronation, you folks are going to whine till the cows come home!!!

      As for Mr. lamborn, apologize gfor what???!!! The man didn’t do anything wrong, nor did he do anything that Congressman Hefley, Mrs. Hefley, and their buddies have done over the years.  Call it politics, call it “PAYBACK” from all of those folks who have been downtrodden, beaten up and ignored.  Maybe it had nothing to do with Mr. Crank??

      Maybe it was a referendum on Joel Hefley.  That’s what hurts the most.  The Emporer has No Clothes.  Hefley’s clout and influence began to wane 10 years ago, just no one wanted to challenge him.  For that, let us all thank John Anderson.

      If anyone should apologize, it should be Hefley.  Just goes to show you that when it comes to party unity, Hefley always was about himself and no one else.  Thanks for the memories, soon we’ll all forget and move on to bigger and better days.  Congressman Hefley’s legacy will linger a while longer.  Unfortunately for him.

      1. Wow, you have really driven my point home.  Thanks for fleshing out my argument.

        It is truly amazing that you are so far gone that you don’t realize what Lamborn did in primary and how sleazy he was.  The CFG, the CCC, and Hoteling are equally bad as the liberal attack groups who all of us conservatives complain about.  They lie and deceive to gain power and all they are are spin doctors who use a conservative ideology to gain power.  In my opinion, they are the worst players in politics because they corrupt moral conservative doctrine with despicable and disgraceful tactics. 

        Lamborn’s campaign and supporters continually lied about other decent men running for the 5th CD, and for that he owes an apology.  If you want, I can list all the lies, but I think you are familiar with them because you trumpeted them as well.  But Lamborn and his supporters are so warped that they do not even realize their actions were wrong.

        I can not bring myself to vote for anyone whose integrity is so flawed.  Like many other conservatives, I will either not cast a vote on that part of the ballot or I will vote against Lamborn to send a message that conservatives need to live up to a higher standard… a standard that Lamborn and his campaign have miserably failed to meet. 

      2. anyone who doesnt approve of lamborn is still a crankie. your ignorance is astounding. personally, i love dougie…he gave me my favorite video of the week on youtube!

      3. Lamborn is doing so poorly.  Politics is one thing but to continually bash those who didn’t support you in the primary after the primary is long gone shows the arrogence that is costing Lamborn his position in the polls.  He assumed that after the primary the R after his name would assure victory.  He may be right but he will win with an embaressingly low margin given the makeup of the district.  Doug Lamborn needs to rebuild some of the bridges he burned during the primary.  Defaming Hefly will not work, he is not your opponent.  Slash and burn campaigns never work when they are applied to those in your own party.

        1. Lamborn and his campaign are still running an angry and negative campaign.  That is what Gore and Dean tried and it did not work.  It worked in the primary only because the normal and well functioning Republicans split their vote among the other candidates.  There is a small section of Republicans who fall into the “I hate gays, I hate government, I hate everyone who is not me” crowd, but that is not majority of us.  Most of us are content with life and are supporting conservative policies because we believe it best for the country.  I don’t like angry people, even if I am more aligned with their policies.  Doug Brouce and Doug Lamborn are the absolute fringe of conservative politics.  The funny thing is they think they are right and the rest of us non-angry conservatives are too dumb to know better.

          1. Robert, thanks for your posts on this thread.  You worded some of my thoughts better than I could have.  I probably lean D these days.  I don’t vote party-line but I definately won’t vote for an R extremist that’s way out on the fringe.  Same goes for the other side of the fence.  The thing Lamborn doesn’t understand is that not everyone in CD-5 is a member of Focus On The Family.

            The thing I really hate about Lamborn is the fact that he’s an ultra-right wingnut.  I think he’s got potential to make Musgrave look like a liberal.  He is on the absolute fringe.  He is here to represent the Dobsonites and to do “God’s work” in congress.  No thanks.  Fred Phelps thinks he’s doing God’s work too and I see him as the lowest of low for protesting the funerals of soldiers killed in Iraq.

            People can say Hefley is playing “sour grapes” all they want, but I don’t think so.  I think he’s got enough integrity and insight to recognize sleaze when he sees it.  Hefley was at least respectable.

            The “I hate gays, non-Christians, and anyone else not like me” Republicans like Lamborn and Musgrave are the ones that are bringing the party down.  If they want to maintain control of congress, they need to give these extremists the boot and put up candidates that are more in-line with the people they represent.

            1. I am actually very conservative (I actually think Focus is a good organization who gets a bad rep), but I despise conservatives who have no ethics.  I am opposed to the homosexual lifestyle; but I do not think they are worse than heterosexuals who cheat on their spouses, lie to their bosses, or lie to get elected to political office. 

              At the end of the day, I believe integrity is the most important factor in leadership and political service.  I believe many people on both sides of the isle have given up their integrity in pursuit of power, but I honestly expect that out of liberals.  I do not and should not expect that out of conservatives, and I hold my own party to a higher standard than others.  We can not expect to lead the government if we do not demonstrate personal character, no matter what your ideology is…

  5. Here’s the link:  http://www.gazette.c

    There’s a section to post comments at the bottom.  Interesting stuff being said.

    The following is copied from the article, quoting Fawcett campaign manager Wanda James:

    “I think people are clearly rejecting the social agenda of who hates gays more, religious issues, social issues,” James said. “Those wedge issues that Doug wants to run on, that’s clearly not what’s important to people.”

  6. a coffin never existed for bob, just plans for a glorious coronation. his momentum and GOTV will carry us to a huge victory, greater than even Lamborn could ever pray for. God is shining upon the republicans this year, just look at our incredible momentum heading into this election!

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