August 09, 2012 07:23 PM UTC

Recent Polling Shows...Eh, Whatever

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• by: Colorado Pols

Democrat Brandon Shaffer is doing his dardnest to make a race out of his challenge to incumbent Republican Rep. Cory Gardner in CD-4. But as we’ve said in this space before, the makeup of the district leaves little room for a potential Shaffer upset.

That doesn’t mean that Shaffer’s team can’t try to show some sort of momentum, as a new press release explains:

The results of a recent poll show Brandon Shaffer making significant gains on Cory Gardner in the race for Colorado’s 4th Congressional District.  Compared to a poll conducted in Dec 2011, Brandon Shaffer has considerably chipped away at Cory Gardner’s lead, reducing it to a 7-point race.

Significantly, when voters learn more about each candidate, support for Gardner decreases and support for Shaffer increases.  With Gardner at 40% and Shaffer at 37%, it is a 3-point race.

While that last paragraph may be true, it means little given that Shaffer isn’t going to have enough money to inform voters about much of anything. At the end of the last fundraising period, Shaffer had about $271,000 cash-on-hand compared to more than $1 million for Gardner.

Full press release on Shaffer’s polling after the jump.

Recent Poll: Brandon Shaffer Makes Significant Gains on Cory Gardner, Colorado 4thCongressional District Trending More Moderate

LONGMONT – The results of a recent poll show Brandon Shaffer making significant gains on Cory Gardner in the race for Colorado’s 4th Congressional District.  Compared to a poll conducted in Dec 2011, Brandon Shaffer has considerably chipped away at Cory Gardner’s lead, reducing it to a 7-point race.

Significantly, when voters learn more about each candidate, support for Gardner decreases and support for Shaffer increases.  With Gardner at 40% and Shaffer at 37%, it is a 3-point race.

“The poll clearly demonstrates increasing support for my campaign and that district trends are also in my favor. Anyone who thinks I don’t have a chance in this district doesn’t know what they’re talking about,” said Shaffer. “I’ve known Cory Gardner for years, and he is a nice  guy, but obviously voters are disappointed that he isn’t following through on his promises now that he is in Congress.”

INITIAL BALLOT:   Gardner: 42%     Shaffer: 35%

FINAL BALLOT:   Gardner: 40%     Shaffer: 37%

The results also clearly demonstrate that voters are far from happy with Congressman Gardner’s work in Washington D.C.  Since December 2011, his job approval rating has fallen considerably.  In the last poll, voters gave Congressman Gardner a 42% positive and 43% negative job rating, but now, his positive job rating has dropped 6-points to 36% and his negative has increased considerably to 47%, demonstrating significant disappointment with his work in Congress.

Shaffer receives the only net-positive job rating among all officials and groups tested in this poll.  In December, voters gave Brandon a 34% positive job rating and 42% negative job rating.  This poll shows that his positive has increased to a 38% positive job rating and his negative job rating has decreased significantly by 7-points to 35%.

Currently, voters give Brandon a higher job approval rating than Cory at 38% to 35%, while also disapproving of Cory at a much higher margin.  Brandon Shaffer receives a net positive rating, while Congressman Gardner receives a net rating of -11.

“”Ultimately, when people realize this race is between a pro-education veteran and a do-nothing darling of special interests they realize there’s a better choice in the 4th Congressional District,” said Kim Howard, Shaffer’s campaign manager. “Brandon Shaffer is focused on revitalizing the middle class and has a proven track record of fiscal responsibility; while Cory Gardner attends extravagant junkets with special interest lobbyists, and gives tax breaks to companies that outsource our jobs.”

Poll results also illustrate a larger trend throughout the district: Colorado’s 4th Congressional District is becoming more moderate.  The approval rating of Democratic elected officials has risen since the last poll in December 2011, while that of their Republican counterparts has fallen.  For example in the 4th Congressional District, Governor John Hickenlooper’s positive job rating has improved from 31% to 42%, and his negative job rating has decreased from 62% to 53%.

Background

Brandon Shaffer is a third generation Coloradan and former Naval officer. He was elected to represent Longmont in the Colorado Senate in 2004 and was unanimously elected President of the Colorado State Senate in 2009. He is running for Congress in the 4th Congressional District against Cory Gardner.

The 4th Congressional district incorporates Longmont, Weld County, Douglas County and the Eastern plains from Holyoke all the way down to Trinidad.