August 08, 2012 04:50 PM UTC

Quinnipiac/NYT in Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 45%

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• by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: We’re hearing a bit more than the usual pushback on the sampling for today’s Quinnipiac/NYT poll, with criticism focusing on two things: oversampling of older voters, and assumptions about Republican enthusiasm affecting the weight of their “likely voter” sample. We don’t want to neglect the possibility that these are valid concerns, but we’re really not interested in getting into the weeds here. We never treat a single poll as gospel, and the total picture from all the polling that’s been done doesn’t change dramatically with this poll in the mix.

The fact is, the New York Times has credibility, and arguing against that credibility is an uphill battle with average voters. In the end, the solution to any uncertainty about polling is more polling. Whether this poll was authoritative or an outlier is a picture that will become clear.

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Today’s swing-state polling from Quinnipiac University and the New York Times tells a different story than yesterday’s Public Policy Polling survey of Colorado voters:

Far more than national polls, which can track the mood of the electorate only as a whole, the results in the state-by-state polls provide a detailed snapshot of the race where it matters most, in geography and demography. They also help explain why both the Obama and Romney campaigns are focusing so much of their time and money on messages intended to resonate with such specific groups in such specific places.

The latest polls underscore just how tight the race continues to be, with the candidates running closely in Virginia and Colorado and Mr. Obama leading in Wisconsin, though not by his double-digit margin of victory in 2008. Mr. Obama won all three states in 2008.

Mr. Obama is struggling because of the economy and facing new challenges in Colorado, where his support among white men has fallen considerably from where it was in exit polls there in 2008…

Mr. Romney holds a five-point advantage in Colorado, within the poll’s margin of sampling error. Mr. Obama’s lead in Wisconsin of 6 percentage points was statistically significant, though he won the state by roughly 14 percentage points in 2008.

Here’s the full memo. Areas of strength in the poll for President Barack Obama continue to include support from women (over 50%), though that number is softer than other polls. Obama also has support among incomes under $50,000 per year and unmarried voters. Among Latino voters in Colorado, Obama enjoys a commanding 68-28% lead.

Mitt Romney, on the other hand, is leading solidly among white men, and has a smaller lead among higher income voters in Colorado. Romney leads among Colorado independent voters 47-45%–well within the margin of error and a clear sign of where this battle is headed.

Bottom line: Colorado Democrats would be fools to not take this poll seriously, even if the results are superficially less encouraging than other recent polls. We see no reason to pick at the methodology or sampling, though it’s a fact that no two samples are ever alike–that’s why we look at trends in polling as much as individual polls.

The results continue to show a race within the margin of error in Colorado, winnable by either candidate, and that’s consistent with every poll being taken in our state. A few points this way or that won’t change the narrative of a very tight race, except for bragging rights until the next poll.

Or an undeniable trajectory emerges.