4 thoughts on “Sarah Palin defeated by Ranked Choice Voting!”

1. One correction: the Democrat's name was Peltola. That's what I get for trusting my memory

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2. I liked the AP's headline slightly better: Peltola beats Palin, wins Alaska House special election

   During the campaign, she [Peltola] emphasized her support of abortion rights and said she wanted to elevate issues of ocean productivity and food security. Peltola said she got a boost after the June special primary when she won endorsements from Democrats and independents who had been in the race. She said she believed her positive messaging also resonated with voters.

   “It’s been very attractive to a lot of people to have a message of working together and positivity and holding each other up and unity and as Americans none of us are each other’s enemy,” she said. “That is just a message that people really need to hear right now.”

   The 2020 election, like everyone since 1964, had Alaskans giving their votes to the Republican by 10%

   Popular vote…..189,951…..153,778…..Percentage…..52.83%…..42.77%

   In the 2022 Special election, with Ranked Choice voting

   Round 1
   Candidate …..Votes …..Percentage
   Begich, Nick….. 53,756 …..28.52%
   Palin, Sarah …….58,945 …..31.28%
   Peltola, Mary S..75,761 …..40.20%
   Total ……………188,462

   Round 2
   Candidate …..Votes ……….Percentage
   Begich, Nick …………0………0.00%  [exhausted: 11,222]
   Palin, Sarah …...85,987 …..48.53%  [+27,042]
   Peltola, Mary S..91,206 ….51.47%  [+15,445]

   So, some combo of (1) disapproval of Palin, (2) rejection of Trump's endorsement, and (3) 11,222 people unwilling to make a second choice between Palin & Peltola out of dislike of both or confusion on how to vote winds up with a Democrat winning by 3%, and almost  9% better.  Count all the votes cast (adding the exhausted) and Peltola is still 5.7% ahead of Biden.

   Red wave apparently doesn't work with a Trumpy candidate like Palin.

    

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3. Everyone claims Peltola won due to IRV, but she would have won by a larger margin if they counted the votes the old way. So IRV had nothing to do with this victory.

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   1. That's hard to say. If we used the "old way" Begich would not have been in the general election. His supporters from the primary might have looked at their choices, a Dem or the Dim Bulb, and not voted at all. If that happened in any sizeable numbers, it would have been a very different dynamic. Beltola might have still won, but we'll never really know for sure.

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