CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
June 30, 2022 10:07 AM UTC
18 Comments
I must say that I don't take much issue with the predictions ….
2022 FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight
Although I don't think they give Warnock enough credit in light of the most recent poll showing him up by 10%.
The House is gone; the only question is by how much.
Call me an optimist but I can still see a 50/50 Senate next year. Which means Biden gets his judicial and non-judicial appointments confirmed.
And Biden will be acquitted after each time the House impeaches him.
House "generic ballot" is running R +2.1 at 538.com …. but if you take only those polls looking at Adults or Registered Voters, Democrats are up. Most recently, YouGov for Yahoo News sees Democrats up +7 for both adults and Registered Voters.
So, the snapshot this week would say the House isn't "gone" —
Supreme Court has just made certain that reproductive health, environment, Native American, and gun control advocates are going to be activated for Democrats. seems to me that provides a fighting chance for the House, and a better than average chance for the Senate to bump up by one or two Democrats.
I agree, JiD. Not that they're supposed to care about the politics (yeah, right) but I believe that with Alito and Thomas being the next most likely to leave the Court, one way or another, these decisions will light a fire under all sorts of marginalized groups. Republicans (especially McConnell) thought they were clever barring the door against Garland and slamming Barrett through, but I think it's going to blow up on them next November like a loaded cigar.
Rhode Island hasn’t elected a Republican House member in almost 30 years. But that is about to change.
Rhode Island 2nd District : U.S. House : 2022 Polls | FiveThirtyEight
Or this Nevada seat currently held by a Democrat:
Nevada 3rd District : U.S. House : 2022 Polls | FiveThirtyEight
Or this Michigan House seat currently held by a Democrat:
Michigan 7th District : U.S. House : 2022 Polls | FiveThirtyEight
Al Lawson only trailing by 3% is actually something of a bright spot:
Florida 2nd District : U.S. House : 2022 Polls | FiveThirtyEight
The “generic ballot” is precisely that. But put names into the poll and the results look different.
Now if gas is only $2.00/gallon and food costs are coming down in November, then Biden will be celebrated as an economic genius – like the scandal-scarred Bill Clinton was in 1998.
But barring some economic miracle, this is going to be like 1994 and 2010 all over again.
The Dems lose the House but narrowly keep the Senate – in large part because the GOP nominates unelectable candidates (see, Walker, Hershel and Oz, Mehmet).
Let's hope we keep the Senate with a slightly wider margin.
Gimme 52 votes and we'll pass an abortion and voting rights law. Of course, we have to keep the house too.
There actually is a plausible path to 52. If Dems holding their endangered seats (GA, AZ, NV and NH), and pick up PA (where Fetterman is leading) and flip WI (where Johnson and all of the Dems are in statistical ties), the Senate ends up being 52/48.
But, of course, the House goes to the crazies.
Here's an interesting hypothetical:
By October, inflation starts to cool off, the situation in Ukraine stabilizes, and pro-choice women (and men) are still angry over Dobbs. The results of the House races are:
215 Democrats
215 Trump Republicans
5 anti-Trump Republicans (i.e., Nancy Mace, Liz Cheney, Brian Fitzpatrick, Jamie Herrera Butler, and David Valadao).
Would the anti-Trump Republicans be willing to work with Dems to organize the House?
Would the Dems be willing to work with the anti-Trump Republicans to organize the House?
You may be a bit over-confident that Liz Cheney will win her primary. Isn't looking good right now.
You're probably right but there may end up being another anti-Trump House member to take her place. Maybe Nick Begich in Alaska who owes nothing to Trump since he bestowed his blessing upon Caribou Barbie.
Judging by last night‘s debate, if Wyoming voters pick one of the other candidates, they only have themselves to blame. We may have our own version of this if we have a Polis/Ganahl//New swinger debate.
OMFG! Liz was the only patriot there. The others kissed Putin's ass.
And sadly, she is probably going to lose the primary to Hageman.
Was Liz Cheney the only one who spoke in understandable English?
Since I have family in PA I have been following, and Fetterman is indeed crushing Oz. Good to see.
Yes, I don't think that the Wizard of Oz pulls this rabbit out of a hat come November.
In addition to not getting much lift from the top of the ticket (Mastriano is staying within shouting distance of Shapiro but if he isn't leading now, he probably won't be in November), Oz has the problem of running as a Turkish citizen in the Party of Xenophobia and Islamophobia.
It's a good thing he didn't renounce his Turkish citizenship. Maybe next time he can run for the Turkish parliament.
"Polis will defeat Ganahl by about 13 points" is so sad. It should be 70/30 given her incompetence as a political campaigner.
I have faith in Ganahl. She will find a way to lose by 20 points.
Polis 58
Ganahl 38
Wanger Lady 4
She's doing her level best to make it happen.
Where is Moderatus at a time like this? Shouldn't he be here telling us how much we should fear
HiediHeidi and Joe?